Bay Hill Invitational 2022
Overview
Dates: March 3, 2022 to March 6, 2022
Location: Bay Hill, Florida, U.S.
Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7,454 yards (6,816 m)
Prize Purse: $12000000
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour. It is played each March at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge, a private golf resort owned since 1974 by Arnold Palmer in Bay Hill, a suburb southwest of Orlando, Florida.
The event was founded in 1979 as a successor to the Florida Citrus Open Invitational, which debuted in 1966 and was played at Rio Pinar Country Club, east of Orlando, through 1978. Arnold Palmer won the Florida Citrus Open in 1971.
Since 1979, the tournament title has had a number of different names, most of them including “Bay Hill,” but has played under the Palmer name since 2007. On March 21, 2012, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and MasterCard Worldwide announced an extension to MasterCard’s “Presented by” sponsorship until the 2016 tournament.
Results
Again the crossbar was rattled by Form Golfer followers, with Tyrell Hatton finishing just one shot out of a play off. From an early stage he was the man our hopes were pinned on, and after a very promising start he faded out of contention before a cracking final round in tough conditions briefly got him to a position where he might even have won for us. But Scottie Scheffler made a miracle par at 15 and held his nerve with a super two-putt from distance on his final hole to break our hearts.
Our other outright picks were somewhat disappointing, although it felt like a strange tournament with most players struggling to post scores. After Rory set the pace at -7 after round 1 with a few others hot on his heels, you would have got long odds on the winning mark being -5. My sense is that the scores from this tournament may be best disregarded, particularly for those who posted big numbers on a tough course that was playing even harder than usual.
Scott, Kokrak and Spaun all looked like they might post a top 20 for us during round 4, but all three put in a big number or two just when they didn’t need it.
All in all, a week best forgotten and we move on to the first really big event of the season in the Players next week. I can’t wait!
Preview
A case of what might have been at the Honda Classic, with Daniel Berger having looked like a comfortable winner for the first three rounds, but somehow contriving to give up a five shot lead within a few holes on Sunday and never really seeming comfortable after that. All parts of his game were on fire until that point and it was surprising to see him fade so tamely. It’s hard to know what scars that will leave behind and it was the difference between a tidy profit for Form Golfer and a moderate loss on the tournament overall. The crossbar was rattled with several other selections; Keith Mitchell agonisingly coming T9, while CT Pan and Billy Horschel made the top 20 but couldn’t make the places. And Denny McCarthy, our biggest match up selection, needed to birdie his (par five) 72nd hole to close out a win, but could only make par. All in all, frustrating to see what could and should have been a good week for us turn out like that.
The tour rolls on to “Arnie’s place” this week for the Bay Hill Invitational. As has been the case in recent weeks, course form counts for plenty and there are several names who have repeatedly performed well here. There’s been a good bit of variability in winning scores, with an on-fire Rory taming the place with -18 four years ago, but -4 being enough for Tyrrell Hatton to get the job done in 2020. All said, it should be considered one of the tougher courses, with a solid all-round game required to contend, although approach play is likely to be the key metric to look out for.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Luke List | 2 | ew | 66/1 | 8 | |
| Jason Kokrak | 2 | ew | 40/1 | 8 | |
| Keith Mitchell | 2 | ew | 45/1 | 5 | |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.5 | ew | 35/1 | 8 | |
| Jason Day | 1.5 | ew | 55/1 | 8 | |
| Adam Svensson | 1 | ew | 250/1 | 5 |
Luke List (2pts ew, 66/1, 8 places) did us a huge favour at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago. He’s been a regular feature on the Bay Hill leaderboard over the years and with the added confidence from now being a tour winner, he can be fancied to put in another good showing. Much will depend on his putting, but he’s delivered some good results in this event without gaining on the greens and he has few equals on the tee-to-green stats. Given a similar profile to Zalatoris, who can also be fancied but is under half the price, he stands out on value grounds.
Jason Kokrak (2pts ew, 40/1, 8 places) is another bringing solid course history in spite of some mediocre putting. That aspect of his game has been tidied up considerably over the last year or so, and it’s not hard to see him going very well again.
Having backed him last week, and with two top 10s here in the last three years, I can’t leave Keith Mitchell (2pts ew, 45/1, 5 places) off the staking plan. The way he’s been playing of late he’s just not an 11/1 chance to make the top 5 and a win wouldn’t surprise in the slightest. 35/1 is available with 8 places on offer, which is very acceptable, but I just feel that the bigger price represents slightly better value.
Tyrrell Hatton (1.5pts ew, 35/1, 8 places) has a win here in 2020 and after some distinctly average play I feel that he’s slowly working his way back to form. I was torn between him and Matt Fitzpatrick at similar prices, but just favour the fiercely competitive Hatton as being the more likely to get the job done if he’s in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Looking back a few years, Jason Day (1.5pts ew, 55/1. 8 places) secured a win and two top 30s between 2016 and 2018. We all know that his fragile body resulted in a loss of form since then, but the Farmers gave notice that he might be starting to put that behind him, a couple of weeks’ rest may have helped, and there’s enough in the price to persuade me to include him.
Finally, Adam Svensson’s (1pt ew, 250/1, 5 places) performance last week came somewhat out of the blue, but was actually his second top ten of the season. While it’s unwise to read too much into a single out-of-character week (whether good or bad), I feel he’s overpriced to back it up. Unfortunately to get 8 places we are being asked to take half the price, so we’ll take a shot that if he goes well again he can make the top 5 with a huge price on offer.
Plenty of others made the long list. Of the two big names at the top of the market, Rory would make more appeal than Rahm at the prices. Rahm continues to play solidly but hasn’t been holing enough to really get into contention and still has a tendency to get frustrated when that happens. It’s starting to feel to me that he’ll be most interesting in majors rather than getting involved around the 8/1 mark in routine events. The fact that Billy Horschel made the top 20 with an ice-cold putter (having been hot the previous couple of weeks) is testament to how good his ball striking is at the moment and I fully expect another good week, although his course form just puts me off a little. Sungaje Im’s course form is too good to ignore, I just worry a little about his putting at the moment. And a strong Aussie performance from either or both of Adam Scott/Marc Leishman would be very unsurprising, and even slightly bigger prices about either would have persuaded me to get involved.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Mitchell to beat Burns | 10 | 10/11 | |
| Scott to beat Casey (TNB) | 8 | 17/20 | |
| Homa to beat Gooch | 8 | 9/10 | |
| Mitchell to beat Casey | 6 | 4/5 | |
| Homa to beat Fleetwood | 6 | 17/20 |
McCarthy and Horschel both tying with Glover and Koepka was the difference between a nice profit and a small loss on the match ups last week. This week’s selections are:
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Adam Scott | Top 20 | 8 | 13/8 | |
| Jason Kokrak | Top 20 | 6 | 2/1 | |
| Keith Mitchell | Top 20 | 6 | 2/1 | |
| Luke List | Top 20 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| Adam Svensson | Top 20 | 3 | 6/1 | |
| JJ Spaun | Top 20 | 3 | 7/1 |
Again the crossbar was rattled by Form Golfer followers, with Tyrell Hatton finishing just one shot out of a play off. From an early stage he was the man our hopes were pinned on, and after a very promising start he faded out of contention before a cracking final round in tough conditions briefly got him to a position where he might even have won for us. But Scottie Scheffler made a miracle par at 15 and held his nerve with a super two-putt from distance on his final hole to break our hearts.
Our other outright picks were somewhat disappointing, although it felt like a strange tournament with most players struggling to post scores. After Rory set the pace at -7 after round 1 with a few others hot on his heels, you would have got long odds on the winning mark being -5. My sense is that the scores from this tournament may be best disregarded, particularly for those who posted big numbers on a tough course that was playing even harder than usual.
Scott, Kokrak and Spaun all looked like they might post a top 20 for us during round 4, but all three put in a big number or two just when they didn’t need it.
All in all, a week best forgotten and we move on to the first really big event of the season in the Players next week. I can’t wait!