Valspar Championship
Overview
Dates: March 17, 2022 to March 20, 2022
Location: Florida, USA
Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7,340 yards
Prize Purse: $7800000
Valspar Championship: Sam Burns defends title as Alex Fitzpatrick makes debut
With the dust barely settled on the Players Championship, the PGA Tour makes its way to the Innisbrook Resort this week for the Valspar Championship.
Sam Burns humbled the demanding Copperhead Course last year to win by three strokes from Keegan Bradley, with the American pair setting a joint 36-hole course record as they battled it out for top spot in Florida.
Burns was just one shot off the best 72-hole total at the venue in a PGA Tour event, set by Vijay Singh in 2004, and became the second youngest winner after Jordan Spieth in 2015.
This year’s champion will take home a tidy $1.4m from a total $7.8m prize pot, with 144 players currently entered in the field and the weather set to be vastly improved following chaotic scenes at the Players.
The player who pockets that cheque will have to tame the notorious ‘Snake Pit’ stretch, which is made up by the 16th, 17th and 18th holes and should keep thing interesting come Sunday evening.
In total, the Larry Packard design covers some 7,340 yards and includes five par-three and four par-five holes.
Paul Casey, who performed at TPC Sawgrass, won back-to-back Valspar titles in 2018 and 2019, but has not entered this week’s event, though the field does include a host of stellar names including Dustin Johnson, a debut for Collin Morikawa and the in-form Viktor Hovland.
One man keeping a keen eye on 24-year-old Norwegian Hovland’s sensational progress will be Henrik Stenson, who was named European Ryder Cup captain this week and is also in action just outside Tampa Bay – Hovland will no doubt be a key component for his team in Rome next year.
Talking of European hopefuls, it will be a memorable weekend for the Fitzpatrick family, with amateur Alex set to make his PGA Tour debut as he joins older brother Matt in the field for the first time at the Valspar.
The Yorkshire pair are enjoying a throwback to their days as youth golfers, playing a practice round together on Tuesday.
“It used to be him telling me what to do and what club to use, but I’ve matured and he’s realised I am capable of making my own way, so now it is more of a guiding thing,” said Alex about his brother.
“If I ever need help or a call, whether that is golf or in life, he is always there, which is nice.”
Matt is confident his brother, four years his junior, can carve out a professional career.
“It’s exciting for him,” said the 27-year-old. “I just hope he plays well. I know he is capable and hopefully he can show that.
“Once he got to college and started playing well and rising up the World Amateur Golf Ranking, I think that’s when I thought it could happen.
“Obviously I played with him a lot when he was younger and he always had this special talent.
“That was the big thing for me. He could go really low when he was younger and that was a sign in itself.”
Alex is currently a college senior at Wake Forest and earned his spot in this week’s event by winning the Valspar Collegiate at The Floridian last year.
“It was kind of a nerve-wracking final 18 holes,” he said about that win. “But I played nice golf and I managed to get it done. Now I’m here, and I couldn’t be happier.
“I felt like if I gave myself another year, my golf game could progress and mature a little bit and felt like I’m more ready now than I would have been last year, which is nice.”
Results
What a difference a shot makes! Desperately frustrating for us to be showing a small loss on the week given the performance of most of our selections. Leaving Molinari aside (the less said, the better!), and to a lesser extent, Oosthuizen (an inexplicably poor display on the greens when you simply had to have that part of your game in good shape), we got a good run for our money from virtually everyone. Things looked great after round 1 and still very rosy at the halfway stage. But in the final reckoning, although we got both Fitzpatrick and Hadwin into the places, the odd shot here and there made a big difference. Hadwin’s untimely bogey at his final hole dropped him into a 5-way tie for 7th, turning a profit on our outright picks into a small deficit. Gary Woodland finishing tied for 21st had the same effect on our top 20 selections, with JJ Spaun close behind in 27th.
So, although it’s easy to view these weeks as discouraging, if our picks keep performing, the results will sometimes fall our way, even if they didn’t on this occasion. On to the World Matchplay this week.
Preview
We move on from the craziness of the Players to a more routine event this week in the Valspar. I was expecting more withdrawals after the Monday finish and brutal conditions at Sawgrass; however at time of writing Casey is the one notable absentee from the original field. One of the primary considerations is whether those who were in the heat of battle through to Monday evening will have recovered and whether those who faced the worst of conditions and posted big numbers will have had their confidence affected. The experience at Sawgrass may have left a number of scars one way or the other.
At least the weather this week doesn’t look like being a significant factor, with a slight variations in wind speed as much as we need to consider during the first two rounds. Innisbrook is a course that rewards solid positioning, with accuracy off the tee and a warm putter two key attributes for those at the top of the leaderboard over the years.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.5 | EW | 20/1 | 10 | |
| Denny McCarthy | 1.5 | EW | 80/1 | 8 | |
| Francesco Molinari | 1.5 | EW | 100/1 | 8 | |
| Adam Hadwin | 1.5 | EW | 55/1 | 8 | |
| Gary Woodland | 1.5 | EW | 50/1 | 8 |
Louis Oosthuizen (3pts ew, 22/1, 8 places) more or less picks himself for this event as one of the most consistent ball strikers on tour and well established as a fine putter. Add to that some high finishes in this event over the years and I’m very happy to put him up as our lead selection at what feels like a very fair price.
In a similar mould to Louis is Matt Fitzpatrick (2.5pts ew, 20/1, 10 places). More of a strategist than a bomber, with a silky touch on the greens, his profile also fits nicely for this week. Narrowly missing the cut at Sawgrass may have been a blessing in disguise.
Sticking with the theme of warm putters, we’ll include Denny McCarthy (1.5pts ew, 80/1, 8 places). Top 40 last year in this event, top 10 in 2019 gives some hope that this could be a good event for him and this season he’s been quietly racking up a string of decent results without really putting himself on the radar.
A top 50 finish at Sawgrass for Francesco Molinari (1.5pts ew, 100/1, 8 places) was probably better than it appears at first glance. Deep into his third round he was right in the mix, but a sloppy final three holes sent him backwards. He seems to be on a nice improvement trend, heading slowly back towards the exceptional form we know he’s capable of at his peak. While he’s not back at that level, at a three-figure price, on a course that should suit, he’s well worth including.
Adam Hadwin (1.5pts ew, 55/1, 8 places) is another who has been clocking up some good recent results under the radar (3 top 30s in last 5 events) and has a win and T12 on his CV in the Valspar, alongside a very good performance at the Players which went largely unnoticed. Another solid putter that I’m happy to keep onside this week. A few points bigger would have been perfect, but 55/1 is enough for us to get involved.
Our final selection, also on a recent improvement trend, is Gary Woodland (1.5pts ew, 50/1, 8 places). It’s very easy to forgive him a MC at the Players and the general pattern of his recent results has been of someone who may be ready to win again. Perhaps known more as a bomber, it’s his recent putting stats in particular that make him interesting.
Several big names make the field this week, although given that they will have geared themselves up for a big performance at Sawgrass I’m struggling to find any value at the head of the market. Of the market leaders, Hovland looks comfortably the most interesting as he’s arguably been in the best form of anyone on the planet in the last three months or so. DJ’s final round at Sawgrass was intriguing – I have him down as a streaky, confidence player and it’s entirely possible that his last 12 holes (having done nothing in the preceding 60) could be exactly the spark he was looking for. But had we been looking for one more selection, it would most likely have been either Jason Day, Keegan Bradley or Jason Kokrak.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Perez to beat Hoffman (TNB) | 8 | 8/11 (Betfair) | |
| Molinari to beat Schwab (TNB) | 8 | 10/11 (Betfair) | |
| Laird to beat Svensson (TNB) | 6 | 4/5 (Betfair) | |
| Kisner to beat Simpson (TNB) | 6 | EVS (Betfair) | |
| Griffin to beat Moore (TNB) | 5 | 9/10 (Betfair) |
A decent week for our match ups in the Players; with one non-runner and 3 winners from the remaining 5 selections, for a small profit.
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Louis Oosthuizen | Top 20 | 8 | 13/10 | |
| Adam Hadwin | Top 20 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| Gary Woodland | Top 20 | 4 | 11/4 | |
| Francesco Molinari | Top 20 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| JJ Spaun | Top 20 | 3 | 13/2 |
What a difference a shot makes! Desperately frustrating for us to be showing a small loss on the week given the performance of most of our selections. Leaving Molinari aside (the less said, the better!), and to a lesser extent, Oosthuizen (an inexplicably poor display on the greens when you simply had to have that part of your game in good shape), we got a good run for our money from virtually everyone. Things looked great after round 1 and still very rosy at the halfway stage. But in the final reckoning, although we got both Fitzpatrick and Hadwin into the places, the odd shot here and there made a big difference. Hadwin’s untimely bogey at his final hole dropped him into a 5-way tie for 7th, turning a profit on our outright picks into a small deficit. Gary Woodland finishing tied for 21st had the same effect on our top 20 selections, with JJ Spaun close behind in 27th.
So, although it’s easy to view these weeks as discouraging, if our picks keep performing, the results will sometimes fall our way, even if they didn’t on this occasion. On to the World Matchplay this week.