US Masters 2022
Overview
Dates: April 7, 2022 to April 10, 2022
Location: Georgia, USA
Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7475 yards
Prize Purse: $11500000
Masters 2022: Will Tiger Woods return at Augusta and who will challenge for Green Jacket?
The anticipation of Tiger Woods’ potential return at Augusta National has dominated the build-up to the 2022 Masters with a number of leading contenders happy to go under the radar this week until the action begins on Thursday.
Scottie Scheffler arrives as the newly crowned world number one but admits the attention is all on five-time champions Woods.
“I haven’t had too much time to reflect,” said the American on reaching the world number one spot.
“I have been working hard for the last few years and have had some success recently, but I am definitely not going to take it for granted.
“Number one was never really something I set out for or looked at – the top 50, playing in the majors, that is where you try to get to and after that you are playing tournaments and I have been lucky enough to win a few this year.
“I have been humbled a couple of times already – the guy in my cart this morning called me Xander, so that brought me back down to earth real quick! But it has been great and I am really looking forward to this week, it is going to be a lot of fun.
“I would say having Tiger anywhere deflects a lot of attention, it is definitely easier for us to fly under the radar. I’m excited, hopefully he can come out and play this week – it should be a fun week if he does.”
Bryson DeChambeau will be one of the players teeing it up and trying to challenge Scheffler for a first Green Jacket at Augusta National, despite going against the advice of his doctor.
DeChambeau has missed a number of tournaments recently with hip and wrist concerns and admits he is only 80% fit this week.
“This comes around once a year and I got to give it a go,” said the world number 19, who fractured a bone in his hand when he slipped playing table tennis before February’s Saudi International.
“I tried to play that week and it was impossible. Normally a bone fracture takes four months to fully heal and I’m back here in two. I’m pleased with that.
“I’m probably around 80% right now. I can’t go all-out. I can’t do any speed training sessions. I can’t practice for excessive hours, I have to figure stuff out.”
DeChambeau, who returned for the WGC Match Play event in Texas a fortnight ago, added: “It was a huge risk a couple weeks ago.
“They recommended that I didn’t come back for a while. They said if you go out there and you hit golf balls and you feel somewhat comfortable you can consider it. And hitting golf balls on the range, I was able to sustain practice for a good amount of time, so I’m happy.
“They’re like, you should really let it heal. Even Chris Como has told me, ‘You probably shouldn’t play’, even though he wants me to play, right? He’s looking out for my best interests for the future.”
DeChambeau is another who is excited to see Woods back at Augusta and the former US Open champion says he could hear the reaction of the fans when the 46-year-old left the clubhouse for his practice round on Monday.
“From the driving range, we could hear the loud roar when he came out of the clubhouse up to that first tee. That was pretty special to hear,” said DeChambeau.
Woods is yet to confirm whether he will indeed play for the first time since suffering life-threatening injuries in a car crash in February 2021.
But former Masters champion Fred Couples, who played nine holes with Woods on Monday, expects the 15-time major winner to compete if he can handle the walk.
“I’m sure he’s going to tee it up on Thursday,” said the 62-year-old, who won his lone major at Augusta National in 1992.
“He’ll never let you know if he’s in pain. He was bombing it. He didn’t miss many shots, drove it great. He’s just unreal.
“Now it’s just the walking part. If he can walk around here for 72 holes, he’ll contend.”
Results
A solid, rather than spectacular performance for Form Golfer’s major debut, with the final analysis showing a 25% return on investment from our selections. The best results came from our outright picks (74% ROI on those), with two of five selections (after Casey’s late withdrawal) in the money. Cam Smith was in genuine contention right up to his tee shot on 12 in the final round. Corey Conners never threatened to win, but comfortably made the places for a nice each way return. Sungjae Im took Top Asian honours without too much difficulty to bolster our profit on the week.
No doubt Scottie Scheffler was a worthy champion and played exceptional golf for the whole week (bar a minor putting wobble on the final green!). He fully deserved both this win and the number one status he cemented with this performance – he has been comfortably the best on the planet this season. And don’t get me wrong, I wish I’d joined his fan club a few months ago. However I can’t help but feel that talk of him now being established as the dominant force in the men’s game is premature. Let’s not forget that 10 weeks ago he still hadn’t won a tour event, and he puts in an agricultural swing every now and then that looks to be very dependent on timing. He may well push on again, but there’s a difference between a player in a fine run of form and one who is truly dominant in the way that Woods or (to a significantly lesser extent and over a shorter period), Spieth, Koepka and McIlroy have been at times in their careers. As highlighted in our preview, many of the top players haven’t been at their peak of late, and hopefully the remaining majors this season will see more congested leaderboards than was the case last week at Augusta.
On to South Carolina this week for more mundane fare in the RBC Heritage, but the quest for value continues.
Preview
It’s officially my favourite sporting weekend of the year, with the Grand National (Éclair Surf, if you’re interested) and the US Masters making for a feast of entertainment. Throw in a potential Premier League decider in Man City versus Liverpool (not really my bag, but I accept that some people are interested) and ownership of the remote control becomes the key ingredient for a great few days.
The Masters makes a great deal of appeal as a punting medium, with a restricted field (of which a bunch can be readily disregarded due to being over 100 years old) and enhanced place terms on offer with a number of firms.
Conventional wisdom tells us that we’re looking for two things above all else: Augusta, more than any other PGA tour venue, is a place where time and again the same players perform. It’s a course that you have to learn to play. And it’s a second-shot course – the key to success is to put yourself in the right part of the greens and make sure that your misses leave you a with chance to make par. Although the speed and undulations of the Augusta greens receive a lot of attention, it’s perfectly possible to contend without being a world class putter. However, with those trends being so well-established and understood, is there value in blindly following them, or should we be more creative in our approach?
A further interesting statistic is that, of the last 20 winners, 18 were in the top 30 in the world rankings going into the event. The average world ranking of the winner during that period is just 17 (lower than the other three majors). Angel Cabrera and Zach Johnson were the only two exceptions to the top 30 trend, all of which indicates that a genuinely surprising result is most unlikely.
What interests me most about this year’s event is that there are solid reasons for opposing most of the market leaders. Jon Rahm has been putting horribly for some time. Jordan Spieth has a track record to die for at Augusta but appears to have lost all confidence in his swing (although a good final round in Texas gives minor cause for optimism that he may be turning a corner). Collin Morikawa is generally regarded as the finest second shot player in the world, but his strokes gained approach stats have steadily fallen away over the last six months. Neither DJ nor Rory have looked in top form for some time. Scheffler and Hovland have arguably been the form players in the world in recent weeks, but does either have the experience of Augusta to win a Green Jacket? All told, it’s hard to find a standout favourite, so we will be focusing on finding value from further down the list.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Cameron Smith | 4 | EW | 16/1 | 9 | |
| Abraham Ancer | 2 | EW | 66/1 | 10 | |
| Paul Casey | 1.5 | EW | 66/1 | 8 | |
| Corey Conners | 1.5 | EW | 55/1 | 8 | |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.5 | EW | 45/1 | 11 | |
| Max Homa | 1 | EW | 80/1 | 11 |
The one player from the front of the market who looks absolutely bomb-proof to put in a good showing this week, and therefore heads our selections, is the owner of the most inexplicable haircut in golf. Step forward Cameron Smith (4pts ew, 16/1, 9 places). The mulleted Aussie must be brimming with confidence in the season of his life (so far), with wins already in 2022 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Players. Add to that ticks in the ‘course form’ (three top 10s in his last four visits) and ‘SG approach’ boxes (8th in SG approach season-to-date) and we have someone I am very happy to go to war with. The confidence of those early season wins and an ability to hole anything when his putter gets hot makes me feel that if he’s in contention again this year, he is far more likely to get the job done this time. For my money, he should just about be the favourite.
For our remaining selections, we’ll be looking to players who aren’t necessarily likely winners, but appear to have been somewhat overlooked by the market. Our hope is that we can at least get one or two into the places to give us a nice profit on the weekend.
First of these is Abraham Ancer (2pts ew, 66/1, 10 places), whose two visits to August have yielded a pair of top-30s and there is scope for him to push on from that this year. A late withdrawal when tipped by FG for last week’s Texas Open, his performance in taking out Morikawa in the Matchplay was out of the top drawer and for a player in the top-20 in the world rankings I feel his price more than justifies getting involved.
Next up is Paul Casey (1.5pts ew, 66/1, 8 places), a player who most will have written off as unlikely to ever win a major, a view which I have some sympathy for. It’s easy to forget that he’s still in the top-30 in the world, he’s put in a number of good showings at the Masters over the years and has arguably been performing as well as ever this season, with his close up finish at the Players particularly noteworthy. His SG approach in the last three months are as good as anyone in this field. If he’s ever going to do it, I’ve got a feeling it could be this week; and he has to have a solid chance of a top-10 finish.
Corey Conners (1.5pts ew, 55/1, 8 places) has also been building a solid Augusta CV, with top 10s in his last two visits. There are few better from tee to green and while his putting remains his Achilles heel, the Masters represents his best chance to contend without having to get hot on the greens. His performance in the Matchplay was excellent and it’s easy to forgive a relatively quiet week in the Texas Open after a gruelling seven rounds in Austin.
Joaquin Niemann (1.5pts ew, 45/1, 11 places) hasn’t sparkled in his two prior visits to Augusta, although his missed cut in 2018 can be readily excused as his invite was courtesy of one of the amateur spots on offer. His return in 2021 resulted in a creditable 40th place and with that experience under his belt and a continued upward trajectory to his career he can be fancied to do a good bit better this year. His SG approach stats have been steadily improving over the last 12 months, including a spectacular win at Riviera. This is perhaps the most persuasive piece of form, since Riviera has proven over the years to be a course that translates form to Augusta better than any other (Scott, Watson, DJ being notables who have been successful at both venues). There’s enough in his price to make him of definite interest.
Max Homa (1pt ew, 80/1, 11 places) is our final selection. Sitting just outside the top 30 in the rankings, the Californian has been on a nice gradual upward trend and is another whose SG approach stats make him interesting. Like Niemann, with a Riveria win on his CV, he’s light on Augusta experience, but that’s why we’re getting 80/1, and that didn’t stop Zalatoris from going very close last year.
Others who were seriously considered for the staking plan include Sam Burns, Russell Henley, Thomas Pieters, Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris and Kevin Na. Zalatoris in particular must be of interest after his superb effort in finishing second as an Augusta rookie. But that’s very much factored into his price and it’s worth noting that he gained on the greens last year, which is certainly an anomaly for him. And I’m not sure my heart could cope with four days of watching him trying to tweak four footers into the hole. I’d had Jon Rahm on my mind as the most likely winner of this for some time, but unsurprisingly he heads the market at a fairly unappealing price. And as mentioned above his putting will need to improve markedly to win the event, albeit he could easily finish top 10 without holing anything of note.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Schauffele to beat Cantlay | 8 | Evens (Boylesports) | |
| Hovland to beat Spieth (tie no bet) | 7 | 5/6 (Betfair) | |
| Hovland to beat Morikawa | 6 | 20/21 (Ladbrokes) | |
| Henley to beat Hatton | 5 | 10/11 (Bet365) |
Match ups are tricky this week. Ideally we’re looking for players with a clear advantage over their opponent both in terms of recent SG and Augusta form. But the bookies aren’t daft and in most cases we’re forced to favour one factor over the other. However we’ve done the crunching and unearthed a few interesting recommendations:
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Sungjae Im | Top Asian | 4 | 5/2 (Paddy Power) | |
| Seamus Power | Top Irish | 3 | 6/1 (Paddy Power) | |
| Bernhard Langer | Top Senior | 4 | 10/3 (Paddy Power) |
We’ve scanned the other more exotic markets on offer and not found a great deal that appeals as offering value. Normally we’d take a punt on a few top 20s but there really doesn’t seem to be much of interest in that market due to the smaller-than-usual field size. However we’ve managed to unearth a few interesting options:
Sungjae Im – Top Asian – 4pts – 5/2 (Paddy Power): The case for this one is straightforward: Hideki is a weak favourite who is injured and may not even tee it up – however he will be desperate to defend his title and this makes him vulnerable. Sungjae hasn’t been in top form but is much the likeliest beneficiary in this category.
Seamus Power – Top Irish – 3pts – 6/1 (Paddy Power): Only four runners in this category and on the basis that Rory makes no appeal at odds on in current form, we’ll side with Seamus Power who has been hugely consistent and just looks too big at 6/1.
Bernhard Langer – Top Senior – 4pts – 10/3 (Paddy Power): Harrington and Langer stand out in this category and Langer gets the nod on value grounds, with a distinct likelihood that if he’s anywhere near level par after 36 holes he may well have this in the bag.
A solid, rather than spectacular performance for Form Golfer’s major debut, with the final analysis showing a 25% return on investment from our selections. The best results came from our outright picks (74% ROI on those), with two of five selections (after Casey’s late withdrawal) in the money. Cam Smith was in genuine contention right up to his tee shot on 12 in the final round. Corey Conners never threatened to win, but comfortably made the places for a nice each way return. Sungjae Im took Top Asian honours without too much difficulty to bolster our profit on the week.
No doubt Scottie Scheffler was a worthy champion and played exceptional golf for the whole week (bar a minor putting wobble on the final green!). He fully deserved both this win and the number one status he cemented with this performance – he has been comfortably the best on the planet this season. And don’t get me wrong, I wish I’d joined his fan club a few months ago. However I can’t help but feel that talk of him now being established as the dominant force in the men’s game is premature. Let’s not forget that 10 weeks ago he still hadn’t won a tour event, and he puts in an agricultural swing every now and then that looks to be very dependent on timing. He may well push on again, but there’s a difference between a player in a fine run of form and one who is truly dominant in the way that Woods or (to a significantly lesser extent and over a shorter period), Spieth, Koepka and McIlroy have been at times in their careers. As highlighted in our preview, many of the top players haven’t been at their peak of late, and hopefully the remaining majors this season will see more congested leaderboards than was the case last week at Augusta.
On to South Carolina this week for more mundane fare in the RBC Heritage, but the quest for value continues.