Mexico Open at Vidanta 2022
Overview
Dates: April 28, 2022 to May 1, 2022
Location: Vallarta, Mexico
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7,456 yards
Prize Purse: $7300000
It was first played in 1944 at the Club de Golf Chapultepec. It was an event on the Tour de las Américas between 2003 and 2006, being co-sanctioned by the European Challenge Tour from 2004 to 2006. It became a Nationwide Tour event in 2008, and was rescheduled from December to January, which resulted in no tournament in 2007. In 2009, due to the outbreak of swine flu, the Mexican Open was rescheduled from May to September. In 2013, the tournament was moved to March and became an official event for PGA Tour Latinoamérica. The tournament would also be moved to Club de Golf Mexico.
In 2022, the tournament became an official event on the PGA Tour, with a purse of $7.3 million, and awarding 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner.
Results
It’s not often we have a complete wipe out of an event, but that’s exactly what the Mexico Open was for us. None of our selections made it into realistic contention, although having putted pretty terribly all week it was very frustrating that Woodland and Munoz couldn’t at least crack the top 20 for us, finishing one and two shots respectively out of the money. Had they done so, a good proportion of our stakes would have been recovered. Even more frustrating was that Champ, Riley and Wise were all given positive mentions in our preview and duly made the placings, having not quite made the staking plan. As we’ve said before, weeks like that will happen from time to time, but our outright selections in particular remain in solid profit territory, showing a cumulative ROI of nicely over 50%.
Preview
After the novelty of the pairs event last week (fairly uninteresting fare if you ask me), normal activity resumes this week in Mexico. Two key challenges quickly emerge: a course that’s not been used on tour before, with no statistical insight into what makes for success, and a field that can be described as moderate at best, with roughly ¾ of the field in negative strokes gained this season.
In terms of the course, it’s a long layout with wide landing areas, so should suit those who rip it from the tee but may struggle on more strategic layouts. It’s likely to be defended by the wind and over 100 bunkers, but scores approaching 20 under are still expected.
As far as the field goes, we have Jon Rahm as a heavy favourite, who has been playing as poorly in recent months as at any time in his professional career, with his short game in particular a major concern. Despite this downturn in form, he is still a full stroke per round better than anyone else in this event over the last six months, so is fully entitled to his market position; there is no question that he is the most likely winner. There are very few players who would normally be fancied to contend, but this week some of them will do, so read on to find out who we think offers some value to make the most of the opportunity.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Sebastian Munoz | 3 | EW | 30/1 | 8 | |
| Gary Woodland | 2.5 | EW | 20/1 | 8 | |
| Mark Hubbard | 1.5 | EW | 66/1 | 8 | |
| Scott Stallings | 1.5 | EW | 66/1 | 8 | |
| Adam Svensson | 1 | EW | 100/1 | 8 |
Top billing this week goes to Sebastian Munoz (3pts ew, 30/1, 8 places). The case for the Colombian is easy enough to construct; he gets it out there off the tee, ranks second in the field in overall SG in the last six months and may regard this as a home game. Tee to green he’s actually not far behind Rahm and while putting can be a weakness, Paspalum greens have a tendency to be a leveller in that regard, so this could just be the time to catch him for a big performance.
Gary Woodland (2.5pts ew, 20/1, 8 places) is also easy to include in the staking plan. Woodland has been showing signs of edging back to form this season, is near the top of this field in driving distance and really ought to be right in the thick of it on Sunday against this level of competition. Price is the only thing stopping us getting more heavily involved, although the 20/1 on offer is very fair.
It was a surprise to me to see Mark Hubbard (1.5pts ew, 66/1, 8 places) so near the top of the SG stats in this field (although beyond the top 3 or 4 in the market there really isn’t much to separate most of them) and there appears to be some value in his price on that basis alone. He’s been quietly racking up some decent if unspectacular finishes and given that his weakest area has been off the tee, the wide open fairways this weak could just help him make the step up towards a top 10 finish.
Scott Stallings (1.5pts ew, 66/1, 8 places) is another in a similar mould to Hubbard; performing nicely enough without setting the world alight – two top 10s and a further 3 top 25s on his CV this season and a player with enough pedigree that a win here wouldn’t be the biggest surprise. Again I feel he’s slightly undervalued by the market.
The final selection is Adam Svensson (1pt ew, 100/1, 8 places), a Korn Ferry graduate in his first full season on tour. Unsurprisingly he’s thrown in a few missed cuts, but on a going week he’s shown he has the tools to go low, and for me he’s the most likely of those further down the list to post the sort of number that could be a winning one if he gets on a roll.
I’m happy to pass on Rahm this week at around 4/1. Even without any improvement in his short game he could still win this, but with a lot of birdies likely to be required he just doesn’t interest me at that price. I’ve always felt he will offer better value on super-tough courses where his mighty tee-to-green game separates him from most of the field. Others who were considered include Cameron Champ, who seems to be recovering well from injury, evidenced by a great showing at the Masters, Aaron Wise, who just looked a little short in the market for me to include, and Davis Riley, who is progressing nicely but I’m inclined to keep an eye on for a little longer before parting with cash. Matt Jones could also go extremely well and has shown before (Tournament of Champions being a notable example this season) that he can go very low indeed when in the mood.
Match Ups
None this week.
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Gary Woodland | Top 20 | 8 | 6/4 (Unibet) | |
| Sebastian Munoz | Top 20 | 6 | 6/4 (Various) | |
| Mark Hubbard | Top 20 | 4 | 11/4 (Various) | |
| Scott Stallings | Top 20 | 4 | 3/1 (Various) | |
| Adam Svensson | Top Canadian | 4 | 9/4 (Various) |
As is often the case, happy to play a few of our outrights on the top 20 markets as well, since if they offer value in one, they are likely to do so in the other. And with Svensson only facing four moderate rivals in the top Canadian market, we’ll include him in that one as well.
It’s not often we have a complete wipe out of an event, but that’s exactly what the Mexico Open was for us. None of our selections made it into realistic contention, although having putted pretty terribly all week it was very frustrating that Woodland and Munoz couldn’t at least crack the top 20 for us, finishing one and two shots respectively out of the money. Had they done so, a good proportion of our stakes would have been recovered. Even more frustrating was that Champ, Riley and Wise were all given positive mentions in our preview and duly made the placings, having not quite made the staking plan. As we’ve said before, weeks like that will happen from time to time, but our outright selections in particular remain in solid profit territory, showing a cumulative ROI of nicely over 50%.