US Open 2022

Outrights

I’m coming to the view that majors are some of the best events to get involved in, with certain profiles players regularly featuring time and again.  Our selections this week follow a theme; we’re looking for top quality ball strikers with some major pedigree on their CV and a proven ability to grind it out when things get tough.  Although there are a bunch of major winners who look to be in very dangerous form, we’re looking to a selection of six major maidens as value plays against the more established names. 

The best value in the market this week lies with Corey Conners ( 4pts ew, 55/1, 10 places), so he duly tops the bill for us.  He was arguably under more pressure in his home open last week than he will be at Brookline, and it showed during his opening round of one over par, which saw him too far off the pace to be able to fully recover.  It was to his immense credit that he kept at it, ultimately finishing in sixth, hot on the heels of those who got away from him early.  He’ll be disappointed not to have won the event, but must go into this week full of confidence given how well he played over the weekend.  We were on him at Augusta when he (not for the first time) made the places, and he’s someone that should feature in thinking as a top 10 contender in majors for the foreseeable.  A price of 55/1 just doesn’t do justice to his talent – I’d have him closer to the 33/1 mark. 

I’ve long been of the opinion that Tony Finau (4pts ew, 30/1, 10 places) is the best fit for a major winner of any player on tour, and that of all the majors, the US Open represents his best chance of picking one up.  He lost his form badly early in the season, but recent performances have been hugely encouraging and a big week tucked in just behind an inspired Rory McIlroy looks to be the perfect preparation for this test.  As has been well documented, his inability to get over the line is a concern and if he has a weakness it’s on the greens.  But a US Open where fairways and greens are the currency will be right up his street.  It’s quite possible he’ll go close without winning, but there is enough in his price to make him a very appealing each way option, with a host of high placed finishes in majors all the evidence we need that he can easily secure us a nice return. 

Sam Burns (3pts ew, 25/1, 10 places) put in another huge showing last week and having nicked a few points profit from his T4 finish there, I’m very happy to include him again.  Although he couldn’t quite live with Rory, JT and Finau, my sense is that he has more upside both in terms of his price and a belief that he could improve further.  Whereas Rory’s putter was on fire most of last week, Burns seemed to be hitting the edge of the hole more than anyone else – a complete reversal of how these two normally perform with the flat stick.  And he said himself he feels there is room for improvement in his long game; if he can find anything at all in that department between now and Thursday, he has to be a massive contender to make the breakthrough to major success.  As was the case last week, when I look at those around him in the market (Schauffele, Zalatoris, Fitzpatrick, for example), I’m happy to side with the proven winner every time. 

Having done us a huge favour in the Memorial a couple of weeks ago, Billy Horschel (2.5pts ew, 40/1, 11 places) owes us absolutely nothing, but I can’t let him go unbacked at a similar price now he’s proven himself to be back in top form.  He played superbly for the vast majority of that event and when things briefly got tight on the back 9 on Sunday, he found the big putts that ultimately got him over the line with a degree of comfort.  The one concern is that his major record is pretty ordinary, but he’s a seven-time PGA Tour winner now, which alone entitles him to be given a better chance than many of those in close proximity to him in the market.    

Harold Varner III (2pts ew, 80/1, 12 places) is a little harder to imagine as a likely winner, but there aren’t many ahead of him in terms of recent form and a top 10 finish wouldn’t come as a big surprise.  20th in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last three months, he sits just ahead of the likes of Rahm, Cantlay and Schauffele on that key metric, yet is several times the price.  His major record is nothing special, but it’s worth noting that since 2019 he’s made 5 of 6 major cuts, and 23rd at this year’s Masters was his best ever major finish.  He feels like a player who has come of age this season and I see no reason that he can’t give us a decent run at the places at least. 

Our final selection comes from leftfield; as I was scanning the more unheralded names on the list, the one who jumped out as possibly having a greater chance than his price implies was Lucas Herbert (1pt ew, 200/1, 12 places).  The unusually-eared Aussie would be the least recognised major-winner in quite some time, but there are a couple of data points that give some hope.  He’s a three time winner (once on the PGA Tour and twice on the DP World Tour), so knows how to get the job done if in contention.  His short game holds up against anyone in this field, so on weeks where his long game co-operates (which it doesn’t always), he’s well able to take advantage.  And 13th place in the US PGA this year ought to have given him a little jolt of self-belief that he can compete in the biggest events on the toughest courses.  It’s a tip that I might well regret half way through round 1, but at the price I’m willing to take that risk. 

It goes without saying that it wouldn’t come as the slightest surprise were Rory or JT to win this.  The way they’re playing, there’s a case to be made that around the 10/1 mark is reasonable value.  As two of the finest golfers on the planet who both come into the event in top form, their chance is there for all to see.  My worry with Rory is that his driving wasn’t quite as straight as normal last week and his wedge game and putter were the key to his success.  It may be that he’ll go on a roll now, but I’d rather trust the longer term trend until proven otherwise and conclude that it’s more likely that not the Canadian Open was an exception in terms of his short game. 

I found it easier to put a line through Scottie Scheffler, who appears to have cooled (albeit only slightly) from his exceptional play earlier in the season.  Also Rahm, who looks to be several levels below the form and confidence of others in the top 10 in the world.  I’m not convinced that a US Open test will suit Cam Smith, whose occasional wayward drives would have to be a concern with rough as penal as will be the case at Brookline. 

Of those who didn’t make our final selections, I was closest to including Hideki Matsuyama, who looks perfectly backable around the 40/1 mark.  Cam Young remains someone to be very interested in, particularly for these tough tracks, but at the same price as Hideki it’s hard to argue that he is value, with short game weaknesses still evident at times.  Davis Riley is the other player worth a notable mention and again I wouldn’t put anyone off at the price on offer. 

Other Recommendations

The top Asian market has an interesting makeup, with seven players who appear to have little chance up against four bigger names.  This means there are 3 places on offer for each way bets and Kyoung-Hoon Lee (3pts ew, 7/1) makes easily the most appeal at the prices.  He may not even need to make the cut to hit the top 3 in this market and has the recent form to make him a win contender against his apparent biggest rivals, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim. 

Having included him in the outright picks, it’s hard not to feel that Lucas Herbert (2pts ew, 13/2) is also value in the top Australian market.  Only seven go to post and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if any of Cameron Smith, Adam Scott or Marc Leishman missed the cut here.  Any under-performance from that trio would leave the door wide open for Herbert to make the top 2 in this market at the very least. 

Corey Conners (8pts, 8/5) looks a relative penalty kick for top Canadian, with Adam Hadwin and Mackenzie Hughes seemingly the only dangers.