3M Open 2022
Overview
Dates: July 21, 2022 to July 24, 2022
Location: Minnesota, USA
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7431 yards
Prize Purse: $7500000
Cameron Champ returns to defend his title at the 3M Open as the PGA Tour’s 2021-22 season inches closer to an exciting conclusion.
Results
Not a good week for us despite three of our four selections making the cut. JT Poston was the only one who seriously threatened to make the places, but playing his last 11 holes in two over put paid to that, when level par over that stretch would have done the trick.
Chris Gotterup put in a reasonable performance, but as per his previous outing got himself too far back early to get into contention. He has huge potential and remains one of the rookies to be very interested in, but perhaps needs a little longer to get used to life on the top tour.
Matthew NeSmith didn’t do a great deal, while Brendan Steele put in a truly awful display on the greens to miss the cut comfortably.
On to the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit for this week’s event and one of the last chances to rack up FedEx points before we get into the season-ending playoffs.
Preview
After an exhilarating, albeit ultimately slightly disappointing (from the perspective of our selections) conclusion to The Open, it’s back to the States this week for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. With only two weeks left to secure a place in the FedEx series, those between 100 and 150 on the list will be particularly keen to grab some much needed points in what is a relatively weak field.
Course form is relatively low on our priority list this week and there is mixed evidence regarding the characteristics that make for success. While recent winners Cameron Champ and Michael Thompson used their putters to great effect, Matthew Wolff showed the previous year that it’s perfectly possible to score here without getting hot on the greens. Looking beyond the winners at the overall patterns, it appears to me that a strong long game is the key requirement, while a good touch around the greens is of little relevance. Good putting stats would be a bonus, but I don’t see it as being as much of a pre-requisite as putting the ball in good positions en route to the greens.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Chris Gotterup | 3 | Each way | 50/1 | 8 | +5000 |
| JT Poston | 3 | Each way | 30/1 | 10 | +4000 |
| Brendan Steele | 2.5 | Each way | 35/1 | 8 | +3500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 2 | Each way | 50/1 | 10 | +6600 |
The market leaders – Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im – are easily left alone this week on the grounds of value and/or form, added to the less-than-ideal preparation of a disappointing week at St. Andrews followed by a long trip across the Atlantic.
We were all over Chris Gotterup (3pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) a couple of weeks ago and while his missed cut there was very disappointing, perhaps he wasn’t quite ready to go into a main tour event as a much talked about favourite. At more than double the price this week, it’s well worth taking the chance that the Barbasol was an aberration rather than a sign that his earlier form couldn’t be taken at face value. I’d be surprised if we see prices like this about this lad for much longer, so let’s get involved again in the hope that he can convert his first win sooner rather than later.
While I am generally keen to avoid those who took part in The Open, JT Poston (3pts each way, 30/1, 10 places) had an early return home after missing the cut by a couple. He actually went off like a train in round 1, before a poor back 9 and an average second round sent him backwards. His form in the run up was as good as anyone in this field, with his victory in the John Deere a great result for FG followers. A second success wouldn’t be a big surprise; he’s been gaining ground in all aspects of his game over the last three months.
The putter has been the issue for Brendan Steele (2.5pts each way, 35/1, 8 places) in recent months, but he leads this field in combined SG off the tee and approach, which is enough to persuade me that he’s worth including on this course. Ranking second in the field in SG overall in the last three months is fairly remarkable considering some fairly dreadful putting stats and even a small upturn in fortunes on the greens would surely see him in contention.
Our final selection is Matthew NeSmith (2pts each way, 50/1, 10 places), another whose strength lies in his long game and of those at bigger prices he looks the most likely to give us a good run for our money, having shown that he’s capable of big weeks from time to time.
Several others were hard to leave out. This looks like just the sort of week where Davis Riley may get his maiden victory and he’s a reasonable price to do so. Adam Svensson has been building back into form, and either Davis or Tringale could easily continue the Cameron theme from The Open. Nick Hardy and Wyndham Clark also made what was a fairly long shortlist. Tom Hoge’s loss of form since getting his first tour win had seen him drift to upwards of 100/1, which has since been clipped back to 80/1; Viktor Hovland was a good reminder last week that strong players who have apparently gone backwards will usually return to form soon enough, and may be great value when they do so. For now though, we’ll just keep an eye on our old favourite Hoge.
Not a good week for us despite three of our four selections making the cut. JT Poston was the only one who seriously threatened to make the places, but playing his last 11 holes in two over put paid to that, when level par over that stretch would have done the trick.
Chris Gotterup put in a reasonable performance, but as per his previous outing got himself too far back early to get into contention. He has huge potential and remains one of the rookies to be very interested in, but perhaps needs a little longer to get used to life on the top tour.
Matthew NeSmith didn’t do a great deal, while Brendan Steele put in a truly awful display on the greens to miss the cut comfortably.
On to the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit for this week’s event and one of the last chances to rack up FedEx points before we get into the season-ending playoffs.