Shriners Children’s Open 2022
Overview
Dates: October 6, 2022 to October 9, 2022
Location: Nevada, USA
Course: TPC Summerlin
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7255
Prize Purse: $8000000
After a good showing, but ultimately a frustrating outcome from our picks last week, the tour moves to Las Vegas. Sungjae Im looks to defend his title at TPC Summerlin this week at the Shriners Children’s Open, although he will face a big threat in the form of world number 4 Patrick Cantlay, another previous winner of this event. We have identified six value selections at odds of up to 200/1!
Results
After coming frustratingly close in our first preview of the new season, it didn’t take long for us to make our first profit. Three of our six picks made the top 15, with both Matthew NeSmith (T2 at 80/1) and Sungjae Im (7th at 12/1) making the top 8 comfortably enough. But for a couple of poor swings that ended up costing 5 shots, we could easily have added Taylor Montgomery to our payout. All told this added up to a nice profit and a 58% ROI on the week.
Tom Kim showed again why he is the most exciting new recruit to the tour with his second victory before the age of 21. The only other member of that club? Tiger Woods. Big shoes to fill indeed, but this lad really does seem to have it all and getting a couple of wins under his belt so early makes it all the more likely that he will continue to progress. Closing out with such assurance against a bang-in-form Cantlay is some achievement, despite the fact that he undoubtedly had a big helping hand from his opponent on the final hole.
While we have tipped him on occasion earlier in his career (as far back as last year’s Open), unfortunately the whole world is now very much alive to his ability and we may have seen the last of any semblance of value in the prices now on offer. That said, there would be worse long-range shots for this year’s majors, for which he is around 66/1 at the time of writing, considering he could easily have picked up another couple of wins and be well inside the top 10 in the world by the time the Masters comes around.
Preview
Deep breaths and a long session of meditation were required on Monday morning. When two of your five selections make the top ten, but neither manages the top 8 finish we needed for a payout, it’s a little tough to take. But the next opportunity is never far away and this week it comes in the shape of the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin – a course that typically plays fairly easy, with winning scores often around the 20-under mark.
These birdie-fests can often make for some unexpected results, since it can be harder for the best players to separate themselves from the field. There has been a mixture of big names (DeChambeau, Cantlay) and less-heralded players (Laird, Pampling) in the winnner’s enclosure here over the years and there doesn’t appear to be a particular type of player to look for in our search for the winner.
That said, accuracy rather than brute force off the tee looks to be the key characteristic, and a tidy short game will be needed to convert the number of birdies that will be required to contend. Course form is certainly a consideration here, with a variety of names that have featured regularly towards the top of the leaderboard.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Sungjae Im | 4 | each way | 12/1 | 8 | +1400 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 2.5 | each way | 33/1 | 8 | +3500 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 1.5 | each way | 80/1 | 8 | +8000 |
| Taylor Moore | 2 | each way | 60/1 | 10 | +8000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | 1.5 | each way | 100/1 | 8 | +11000 |
| John Huh | 1 | each way | 200/1 | 8 | +22500 |
Sungjae Im (4pts each way, 12/1, 8 places) hit form with a vengeance towards the back end of the 2021/2 season and shows no sign of letting up following a strong performance in the Presidents Cup. Towards the top of the rankings at Summerlin and with all facets of his game in decent nick (driving accuracy in particular, and his putting having started to catch up more recently), he’s an obvious headline selection for us. He should get plenty of birdie opportunities here and if his putter behaves even moderately it’ll be very hard to keep him out of the places. I’d have him much closer to Cantlay in the market.
Despite a top-10 finish, I don’t think we saw the best of Taylor Mongtomery (2.5pts each way, 33/1, 8 places) last week, so I’m happy to keep him onside here. I’m always keen to have at least one great putter on the list where low scores are the order of the day and Montgomery certainly fits the bill. He’s one of my big hopes for this season and I’m confident we can get at least one win out of him. The price is still acceptable, so let’s go in again.
Next up is a far more speculative play, but another with some solid course form to his name in the shape of Matthew NeSmith (1.5pts each way, 80/1, 8 places). A top ten last week was the first sign of life for a while, but top 20s in this event in the last two years suggest that he could well carry on the form he showed in the Sanderson.
Taylor Moore (2pts each way, 60/1, 10 places) and Stephan Jaeger (1.5pts each way, 100/1, 8 places) both deserve more respect on recent performances than they have been given in the market and both should be played accordingly. Each has racked up 5 consecutive top 50s in their most recent events, and while neither has really threatened to win during this time, it’s a level of consistency that suggests a bigger week may not be far away. Moore’s short game in particular should translate well to this event and Jaeger, while weaker on the dancefloor, has SG Around The Green stats to rival anyone in this field.
Our final selection is another less-obvious one in John Huh (1pt each way, 200/1, 8 places). The case here is based largely on course form, with a couple of top 20s and numerous cuts made in this event in the last decade or so. Recent form is a little less encouraging, but 3 cuts made from his last 4 completed events isn’t too bad and he made the places as recently as the Wyndham (tied 2nd). Not by any means a likely winner, but at the price the risk is worth taking.
Patrick Cantlay is set to start as a clear favourite and both his world ranking and course record make him an obvious choice. He’s unlikely to be far away, but I’m not convinced backing at short prices in relatively low-key events like this will be profitable in the long run. It’ll be interesting to see whether Tom Kim can progress from his exceptional start to life on tour, but 22/1 looks about right for his chances. I’m also keen to keep an eye on Garrick Higgo, who took the European Tour by storm a year or two ago, seemed to have fallen to pieces following his move to the US, but last week’s effort was very encouraging and he is still available at three-figure prices on the back of that effort. It’d be good to see him get back on track as he can compete with the best when on top form. Aaron Rai was considered on the basis of his accurate driving (but can he hole the putts?) and Grayson Sigg was the other at a huge price that came close to making the staking plan.
After coming frustratingly close in our first preview of the new season, it didn’t take long for us to make our first profit. Three of our six picks made the top 15, with both Matthew NeSmith (T2 at 80/1) and Sungjae Im (7th at 12/1) making the top 8 comfortably enough. But for a couple of poor swings that ended up costing 5 shots, we could easily have added Taylor Montgomery to our payout. All told this added up to a nice profit and a 58% ROI on the week.
Tom Kim showed again why he is the most exciting new recruit to the tour with his second victory before the age of 21. The only other member of that club? Tiger Woods. Big shoes to fill indeed, but this lad really does seem to have it all and getting a couple of wins under his belt so early makes it all the more likely that he will continue to progress. Closing out with such assurance against a bang-in-form Cantlay is some achievement, despite the fact that he undoubtedly had a big helping hand from his opponent on the final hole.
While we have tipped him on occasion earlier in his career (as far back as last year’s Open), unfortunately the whole world is now very much alive to his ability and we may have seen the last of any semblance of value in the prices now on offer. That said, there would be worse long-range shots for this year’s majors, for which he is around 66/1 at the time of writing, considering he could easily have picked up another couple of wins and be well inside the top 10 in the world by the time the Masters comes around.