Zozo Championship 2022

Outrights

We’ll lead off this week with Aaron Rai (1.5pts each way, 100/1, 5 places), who I believe represents the best value on offer.  One of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, he has been gradually establishing himself as a full member of the PGA Tour and can be fancied to improve on a solid performance (T20) at the Shriners on a course that ought to suit him a little better.  The weakest part of his game is on and around the greens, but I’d expect that to be less of an issue this week than it was at TPC Summerlin.  You can get 80/1 for 6 places or 66/1 with 7 places, but I feel the best value marginally lies with the longer price and fewer places.

Regular followers will know that Sepp Straka (2pts each way, 50/1, 6 places) is a golfer who I feel has been consistently under-rated.  Now up to a career high ranking of 26 (from outside the top 200 at the start of the year), he’s capable of extreme swings in form – but when in good shape, as he appears to be at the moment, he has shown he can regularly get into contention, and can close it out when the pressure is on.  At the price on offer, he has to be included in the staking plan.

Mito Pereira (2pts each way, 33/1, 6 places) has taken some time to recover from the agony of throwing away a golden opportunity to win himself a major at the US PGA last year, but the signs are that he is ready to contend again.  His approach play is right up there with the best in this field and a small improvement in his fortunes with the wedge and putter could easily see him going very close.

Mark Hubbard (1.5 pts each way 66/1, 7 places) has been in sparkling form for a while now (top 30 in each of his last 3 outings) and he put in another solid showing at the Shriners.  Having not really got into contention to win during that period he’s perhaps still a little under-rated in the market and I’m happy that the price at least gives us a decent opportunity to cash a fair return from the place part of the bet, even if he’s unlikely to win.

Troy Merritt (1pt each way, 90/1, 7 places) is a more speculative option, but there’s enough in his stats to make me feel that he’s worth including this week.  He tops the driving accuracy stats over the last 3 months (5th in the field when you look back over 6 months), while his tee-to-green strokes gained has shown gradual improvement recently.  He made it as far as the second of the FedEx playoff events at the back end of last season, so perhaps doesn’t deserve to be a three-figure price.  In common with Rai and Pereira his troubles can come around the green, but that’s where more volatile swings in form are most likely to occur.

It was very tempting to include at least one from the top of the market, but it was very hard to make a case that any offer standout value, so we’ll fire a few bullets at long shots and hope that we can get at least one of them into the places.  Of the market leaders, another win for Tom Kim wouldn’t surprise as he looks to be a great fit for this test, but I’d worry that last week’s win, with the media commitments and long journey afterwards may just leave him a little jaded (although being 20 years old should certainly help on that score).  We’ve cashed a few placed finishes on Sungjae Im recently and it would be typical if this is the week that he gets over the line, but prices of 12/1 don’t persuade me to go in again.  Perhaps the most appealing of those at shorter prices are Cameron Young, who will be fresher than most, and Si Woo Kim, whose form is trending very nicely at the moment.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout performed well last week despite an uncharacteristically cold putter and was also considered among the long shots at a fair price.