Sentry Tournament of Champions 2023
Overview
Dates: January 5, 2023 to January 8, 2023
Location: Hawaii, USA
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Course Par: 73
Course Length: 7596
Prize Purse: $15000000
2023 is upon us and we ring in the new year with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In an alteration to previous years, the top 30 from the FedEx ranking join the 2022 winners in being eligible for the traditional curtain-raiser to the year ahead. As such, the field is a strong one, and we’ve identified some value to get us off to a flying start to the year.
Results
Well the opening event of 2023 certainly didn’t lack for drama, both in terms of the end result and the performance of our own selections. Starting with our picks, it was a hard one to take that neither Matt Fitzpatrick nor KH Lee could make the top six given that both looked well placed to do so with just a couple of holes remaining. Having gone to bed feeling pretty good about our prospects, it was upsetting to wake up to find out that both had finished in a tie for seventh place. Hopefully that bad luck will quickly be evened out.
In terms of how things unfolded at the summit, it’s hard to know what to make of what happened. Most people will have spent the first three and a half days markedly upgrading their expectations of Collin Morikawa for 2023. His new putting coach appeared to have paid instant dividends and his all round play indicated a spectacular return to the form that saw him back two majors so early in his career. His back 9 collapse was as unexpected as it was dramatic and raises some fairly serious doubts given that the last time he held a big Sunday lead, the result was exactly the same. He certainly possesses the ability to put this behind him, but it’ll take some mental strength to do so.
Jon Rahm’s Sunday was as brilliant as Morikawa’s was dreadful. Kapalua is clearly a venue he loves and he’ll have to be considered a contender each time he tees is up there in the future. Despite his Sunday heroics he has to be considered a somewhat fortunate winner however and I certainly won’t be losing sleep over having passed him up around the 6/1 mark – I’m fairly convinced that low-scoring birdie fests on wide open tracks don’t give him the best opportunity to separate himself from the field.
There were some notable performances further down the field, top of my list being Tom Kim, who I really don’t feel would have been suited to Kapalua yet still put in another great shift to add another top 5 to his growing list of early-career achievements. Max Homa looks to have returned in great nick and it was a very encouraging first start of 2023 for Tony Finau; both of these can be expected to add to their growing silverware collection this year. It was a notable comeback also from Will Zalatoris, whose back issues have required him to remodel his swing – a tie for 11th probably exceeded reasonable expectations and it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on his progress as we approach the Masters (not that I’m expecting much value in his price given his two performances at Augusta so far).
Jordan Spieth still doesn’t look comfortable to me, either with his swing or on the greens, while Justin Thomas will be disappointed in his week – they are two big names who usually take a decent share of the market that I’m inclined to avoid for the time being.
We stay in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open, before the west coast swing gets into gear. So a few weeks of late night viewing lie ahead (in the UK at least)
Preview
The Tournament of Champions was good to us last year, with Cameron Smith holding off Jon Rahm and Matt Jones amidst some quite incredible scoring. Smith’s game proved ideally suited to the challenge of Kapalua – you can spray it around, but need to putt like God (much as was the case at St. Andrews – I’m still kicking myself over that one). In fact Smith’s defection to LIV is somewhat annoying as I had him pegged as a repeat contender here year on year. We’ll be looking to players with a similar profile to the mulleted Aussie to make up our selections this time around.
Kapalua is long, but perhaps doesn’t play as long as the scorecard suggests, with huge fairways and plenty of roll allowing players to open their shoulders with relatively little fear of finding trouble. Scoring is likely to be low and a hot putter and deft touch around the large greens are certainly at the top of our list of desirable attributes.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Sam Burns | 3 | each way | 25/1 | 6 | +2800 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.5 | each way | 20/1 | 6 | +2200 |
| KH Lee | 1.5 | each way | 70/1 | 6 | +8000 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2.5 | each way | 11/1 | 6 | +1000 |
Our first tip of 2023 is Sam Burns (3pts each way, 25/1, 6 places). There are few better on the greens that Burns when he’s on song and his occasionally wayward driving is unlikely to be problematic at Kapalua. 2022 was arguably a touch disappointing for him, but the festive break may have provided the opportunity to recharge and reset; I can see him building back to the form that’s made him a multiple Tour winner and this looks an ideal opportunity for him to start that process.
I’m happy to load up with the best putters in the field here and Matt Fitzpatrick (2.5pts each way, 20/1, 6 places) also fits that bill. Having added some length to his game courtesy of a concerted effort in the gym, Fitz now ranks above average off the tee and he can be fancied to give himself a host of opportunities to putt his flat stick to good use here. Perhaps a little quiet in the aftermath of his maiden major victory last year, he looked to be in good shape when last seen in Dubai and will be very keen to push on from what he achieved last year.
There are very few outsiders that can be seriously fancied in this field, but KH Lee (1.5pts each way, 70/1, 6 places) has shown he can win and can also get hot enough on the greens to stand a sporting chance at least to get himself into contention. Unfortunately some of the early prices have already been snapped up, but 70/1 is still worth a small investment. He’s often not given the respect in the market that he deserves and I see him as the kind of guy who’ll pop up and win once or twice every couple of years.
Finally, we’ll include one of the market leaders in the shape of Patrick Cantlay (2.5pts each way, 11/1, 6 places). After his heroics at the back end of the 2020/2021 season, you could argue that 2022 was slightly disappointing in comparison, but he has still churned out stats that stack up against the very best in the world. His price isn’t anything to get excited about, but he’s marginally my preference from the front of the market and feels like a very plausible winner of this event.
Jon Rahm is unsurprisingly favourite having hit form with a vengeance at the back end of 2022. But even one of his best putting displays couldn’t quite get the job done last year and I’d be surprised if there aren’t a few that can rack up more birdies than he will. Tony Finau is very interesting, particularly now that his putting numbers have caught up with the rest of his game; the only thing that dissuaded me from getting involved is that the last time he took a short break he returned with a missed cut (before winning the following week!). Sahith Theegala was the other who made some appeal of those at bigger prices.
Well the opening event of 2023 certainly didn’t lack for drama, both in terms of the end result and the performance of our own selections. Starting with our picks, it was a hard one to take that neither Matt Fitzpatrick nor KH Lee could make the top six given that both looked well placed to do so with just a couple of holes remaining. Having gone to bed feeling pretty good about our prospects, it was upsetting to wake up to find out that both had finished in a tie for seventh place. Hopefully that bad luck will quickly be evened out.
In terms of how things unfolded at the summit, it’s hard to know what to make of what happened. Most people will have spent the first three and a half days markedly upgrading their expectations of Collin Morikawa for 2023. His new putting coach appeared to have paid instant dividends and his all round play indicated a spectacular return to the form that saw him back two majors so early in his career. His back 9 collapse was as unexpected as it was dramatic and raises some fairly serious doubts given that the last time he held a big Sunday lead, the result was exactly the same. He certainly possesses the ability to put this behind him, but it’ll take some mental strength to do so.
Jon Rahm’s Sunday was as brilliant as Morikawa’s was dreadful. Kapalua is clearly a venue he loves and he’ll have to be considered a contender each time he tees is up there in the future. Despite his Sunday heroics he has to be considered a somewhat fortunate winner however and I certainly won’t be losing sleep over having passed him up around the 6/1 mark – I’m fairly convinced that low-scoring birdie fests on wide open tracks don’t give him the best opportunity to separate himself from the field.
There were some notable performances further down the field, top of my list being Tom Kim, who I really don’t feel would have been suited to Kapalua yet still put in another great shift to add another top 5 to his growing list of early-career achievements. Max Homa looks to have returned in great nick and it was a very encouraging first start of 2023 for Tony Finau; both of these can be expected to add to their growing silverware collection this year. It was a notable comeback also from Will Zalatoris, whose back issues have required him to remodel his swing – a tie for 11th probably exceeded reasonable expectations and it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on his progress as we approach the Masters (not that I’m expecting much value in his price given his two performances at Augusta so far).
Jordan Spieth still doesn’t look comfortable to me, either with his swing or on the greens, while Justin Thomas will be disappointed in his week – they are two big names who usually take a decent share of the market that I’m inclined to avoid for the time being.
We stay in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open, before the west coast swing gets into gear. So a few weeks of late night viewing lie ahead (in the UK at least)