AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023
Overview
Dates: February 2, 2023 to February 5, 2023
Location: California, USA
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 6972 yards
Prize Purse: $9000000
Having landed the Farmers winner for the second season in a row with Max Homa, this week we’ll be going for back-to-back back-to-backs as we try to follow up Tom Hoge’s 60/1 win in the 2022 edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Results
Few positives to be taken from the performances of our selections in the AT&T, even though most made the cut. Having made the right decision to avoid those at the front of the market, none of our picks seriously threatened and each time any of them made a move up the leaderboard, they seemed to quickly move in the opposite direction.
Limited damage done though as we kept stakes fairly small – we remain in profit on the season and the Phoenix Open is our next opportunity to improve our position, with a very strong field due to assemble.
Preview
The early shows for the AT&T caused a little double-take when I first saw them. Spieth around 8/1 to win anything in current form? Give me a break. The likes of McNealy (despite some excellent course form), Putnam, Kuchar and Rose all trading around 33/1 or shorter? No thanks. Even our hero from last year, Tom Hoge, who we tipped at 60/1, surely can’t make much appeal at around a third of that price this time around, despite going into his title defence in decent form. It’s not the strongest field of the season by any stretch of the imagination, but my early conclusion was that the front of the market was taken up by a bunch of players you wouldn’t be keen to go anywhere near at those prices, so there had to be some opportunities lurking further down the list. Unsurprisingly the market has adjusted a touch since the first prices on Monday, so read on to find out where the value lies.
This event is unusual on three fronts; first being another pro-am, second being played over three courses and third being the fact that all three courses are shorter and tighter than the usual PGA Tour fare. The ability to hit a high percentage of greens in regulation has been the key barometer of success here over the years and there’s every reason to look for players who have adapted well to this format in past versions of this tournament.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Ben Griffin | 2 | each way | 55/1 | 8 | +6000 |
| Ben Taylor | 1.5 | each way | 125/1 | 8 | +12500 |
| Greyson Sigg | 1 | each way | 80/1 | 8 | +9000 |
| Callum Tarren | 1 | each way | 90/1 | 8 | +9000 |
| Lanto Griffin | 1.5 | each way | 70/1 | 8 | +12500 |
First on our list is Ben Griffin (2pts each way, 55/1, 8 places), who has been on my mind for a little while as a possible selection and this week jumps off the page in a field where he should have every chance of being very competitive. 8th in the field on SG tee to green over the last six months, more recently he has seen a slight improvement on the greens which has translated into five top 40 finishes on the bounce. It’s easy to see him breaking the top 10 this week, and some of those ahead of him in the market probably don’t deserve to be.
I can’t let Ben Taylor (1.5pts each way, 125/1, 8 places) go unbacked given that he ranks right up there on tee-to-green stats in recent months and has shown he’s capable of converting that into high finishes. Whether he can keep it up over a prolonged period remains to be seen, but he still seems to be a touch under-rated in the market so is worth another small investment to continue his recent form.
Greyson Sigg (1pt each way, 80/1, 8 places) is another that fits the mould here from a long game perspective and is trending back towards top form with two top 20s in the bag already this season; the fact that he’s capable of going really low when in the mood always give him a sporting chance of a big week.
Callum Tarren (1pt each way, 90/1, 8 places) can be something of an in and out performer and has a sprinkling of missed cuts amongst some much better weeks. A very respectable top 30 in the Farmers showed that he’s continuing the form that saw him right in contention half way through last year’s US Open and more recently a second placed finish in the RSM Classic.
Finally, we’ll add a second Griffin to our staking plan in the shape of Lanto Griffin (1.5pts each way, 70/1, 8 places). Following a prolonged break from the game due to a ruptured disc in his lower back, it would have been reasonable to expect Torrey Pines to be a tough challenge on his return, but he came out of the blocks quickly and ultimately finished inside the top 40 – a commendable effort and one he can be fancied to improve on, particularly given that he has a couple of top 20s in this event in recent years. A Californian native who at his best is superb on the greens, he can be fancied to handle these surfaces better than most.
I was sorely tempted to have a decent wager on Matt Fitzpatrick, who looks to be the solid one from the front of the market and I feel should be clear favourite, but my sense is there will be better value 10/1 shots we can get involved in down the line. All our selections are paying at least 10/1 just to place in the top 8. SH Kim and Nick Taylor (who is particularly interesting on course form) were another couple who came close to making the list.
Few positives to be taken from the performances of our selections in the AT&T, even though most made the cut. Having made the right decision to avoid those at the front of the market, none of our picks seriously threatened and each time any of them made a move up the leaderboard, they seemed to quickly move in the opposite direction.
Limited damage done though as we kept stakes fairly small – we remain in profit on the season and the Phoenix Open is our next opportunity to improve our position, with a very strong field due to assemble.