Phoenix Open 2023
Overview
Dates: February 9, 2023 to February 12, 2023
Location: Arizona, USA
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7261 yards
Prize Purse: $20000000
It’s the first of the full-field designated events of 2023, with an elevated purse of $20m up for grabs and most of the world’s top-ranked players in attendance. It promises to be noisy, competitive and a great viewing experience, so let’s hope we can add to the entertainment by putting up a few selections that’ll give us some fun come Sunday evening.
Results
Once again Scottie Scheffler has proved me wrong, picking up another win and returning to number one in the world in the process. I still think he’s behind Rahm and McIlroy in terms of natural ability and fully expect him to be overtaken by both again in the near future, but it was another clinical display in Phoenix and he was a deserved winner, closing it out despite not looking quite at his best.
Despite not being on Scottie, it was a nice profitable week for FormGolfer followers, with two of our four picks making the places at decent prices. Tyrrell Hatton and Sam Burns both put in very solid weeks without ever really looking like winning and finished in a tie for sixth, which translated into a 13 point profit and 75% ROI for the event, which is more than acceptable when you’ve missed the winner. Tom Kim and Max Homa both made the cut but never made it into contention.
A lot of fuss is made about the Phoenix Open and it’s certainly quite a spectacle, with some of the largest and (certainly) noisiest crowds we ever see on tour. I’m not sure I’m a huge fan of the course though, with too many almost perfect shots being severely punished – even though we got a decent result I tend to feel it’s a tournament to be slightly wary of from a punting perspective.
Next up the Genesis; another elevated-status event with a top class field for us to pick through.
Preview
No shortage of potential winners to consider this week, as you might expect with such a loaded field. A look at the finishing positions in recent years tells you that this is an event that the top players take seriously, and with the cream likely to rise to the top it’s more tempting to focus on the big names than it has been in recent weeks.
Hitting greens in regulation has been a key ingredient for success at TPC Scottsdale, but a tidy short game will also be needed so we’ll be looking for players who have all aspects of their game in decent working order to make up our selections for the week.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2 | each way | 55/1 | 8 | +6000 |
| Max Homa | 3 | each way | 22/1 | 8 | +2500 |
| Tom Kim | 2.5 | each way | 22/1 | 10 | +3000 |
| Sam Burns | 1.5 | each way | 40/1 | 10 | +4500 |
My idea of the best value in the outright market this week is Tyrrell Hatton (2pts each way, 55/1, 8 places). While last season was arguably a touch disappointing for the angry Englishman, his recent form is certainly solid enough (gaining strokes across all categories) to make him a realistic contender here. The price dictates that we should be getting involved, with others around him in the market that seem to have a much smaller chance than he does of taking home the prize.
Having done us a favour at the Farmers and thankfully skipped the ordeal of a wind-swept and delayed Pebble Beach pro-am last week, it’s easy to go in again with Max Homa (3pts each way, 22/1, 8 places). We’re being asked to take a slightly shorter price in a deeper field than for his recent victory, but his form puts him squarely in the top 4 or 5 most likely winners to my mind. He has a top 10 and a top 20 from the last three editions of this event and is surely coming into this a better player and full of confidence just now.
With a relatively short course in play this week and tee-to-green expertise being favoured, this looks to be a good opportunity for Tom Kim (2.5pts each way, 22/1, 10 places) to add to his burgeoning reputation. Provided he doesn’t experience the putting issues that afflicted him the last time we were on him (they seemed to have disappeared the following week), this test really should suit him. He also strikes me as someone who will thrive in the boisterous atmosphere that always surrounds the Phoenix Open.
Our final selection is Sam Burns (1.5pts each way, 40/1, 10 places), who comes with a degree of risk attached given some patchy recent results, but is too good a player to be that sort of price. While his long game appeared to be suffering from a degree of rust in the early part of 2023 (particularly so at the Tournament of Champions), his putting, which is his greatest weapon, seemed to be in top shape, so if any improvement is forthcoming he might just make that price look very generous.
Jon Rahm’s tee-to-green game makes him probably the right favourite here, but he makes limited appeal around the 7/1 mark in such a deep field; Rory looked to be fighting his driver in the Dubai Desert Classic – although he just about got the job done that week, he may not get away with it again and even so, this course wouldn’t look to be an obvious fit for him to separate himself. So he’s also readily enough left alone at the price. Sahith Theegala was someone I was looking to include, but he’s been well found in the market – I was hoping for a few points bigger.
Whatever happens, it should be entertaining – good luck with your bets.
Once again Scottie Scheffler has proved me wrong, picking up another win and returning to number one in the world in the process. I still think he’s behind Rahm and McIlroy in terms of natural ability and fully expect him to be overtaken by both again in the near future, but it was another clinical display in Phoenix and he was a deserved winner, closing it out despite not looking quite at his best.
Despite not being on Scottie, it was a nice profitable week for FormGolfer followers, with two of our four picks making the places at decent prices. Tyrrell Hatton and Sam Burns both put in very solid weeks without ever really looking like winning and finished in a tie for sixth, which translated into a 13 point profit and 75% ROI for the event, which is more than acceptable when you’ve missed the winner. Tom Kim and Max Homa both made the cut but never made it into contention.
A lot of fuss is made about the Phoenix Open and it’s certainly quite a spectacle, with some of the largest and (certainly) noisiest crowds we ever see on tour. I’m not sure I’m a huge fan of the course though, with too many almost perfect shots being severely punished – even though we got a decent result I tend to feel it’s a tournament to be slightly wary of from a punting perspective.
Next up the Genesis; another elevated-status event with a top class field for us to pick through.