Genesis Invitational 2023
Overview
Dates: February 16, 2023 to February 19, 2023
Location: California, USA
Course: Riviera Country Club
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7322
Prize Purse: $20000000
The best players in the world were already committed to play in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club, but on Friday we learned that golf’s biggest star is set to play, too. Tiger Woods, the tournament host, will be making his first official PGA Tour start since last July.
Results
Disappointing weeks for three of our four selections, but headline pick Max Homa came so close to landing his second win for us of 2023. Having started the final round three behind Jon Rahm, he battled hard to stick his nose in front early in the back nine, but a couple of worldies from the new world number 1 ultimately meant that Max fell just short. Homa has undoubtedly taken his game to another level of late and on current form is the only guy capable of challenging the top three when they are in full flow. We called out Rahm in our preview as being the man to beat this week, so it was a little frustrating that he ultimately denied us another good payday.
I had high hopes of better performances from Scott and Noren in particular, but they were well off a pace that few in the world can live with at the moment. There already seems to be a pattern forming this season that the biggest tournaments are falling to the big names – if we can get to major season with the stars still in such a rich vein of form, we should be in for a treat. The Masters can’t come soon enough.
Overall a tiny loss on the week, so no damage done. On to the Honda Classic where most of the top players will be taking the week off, so the list of potential winners is likely to be a whole lot longer.
Preview
If a three-ball for the first two rounds comprising Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods doesn’t get your juices flowing, then frankly golf probably isn’t your game. I’m fulling intending to clear my diary and settle down to watch the good pals slug it out over the opening 36 holes.
None of those three however feature in our staking plan for this week. Despite the fact that some bombers have seen success here, one of the notable aspects of the stats at Riviera in recent years has been the extent to which tidy short game numbers for the week have been a must to hit the upper reaches of the leaderboard. So it’s accuracy off the tee, a deft touch around the green and silky putting that are highest on my list of must-have characteristics this week.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Max Homa | 3.5 | each way | 20/1 | 8 | +2200 |
| Alex Noren | 2 | each way | 80/1 | 10 | +10000 |
| Brendon Todd | 1 | each way | 250/1 | 10 | +25000 |
| Adam Scott | 2.5 | each way | 50/1 | 8 | +6000 |
He’s an obvious pick given his course form, recent form and the fact that he’s a native Californian, but Max Homa (3.5pts each way, 20/1, 8 places) simply has to go on our list for the third week in a row. I was fully expecting him to be a fair bit shorter here than he was last week considering his Riviera track record, but a relatively quiet performance in Phoenix has meant that he goes off here at bigger odds than I was expecting.
A less obvious selection is Alex Noren (2pts each way, 80/1, 10 places), but his form since the Houston Open (3 top 5s in his last four starts) entitles him to plenty of respect and few in this field can match him for short game, which should stand him in good stead here. A missed cut at Phoenix last week doesn’t bother me as I see this as a very different test and one which should suit the Swede a great deal better. He made the cut last year in this event despite putting uncharacteristically poorly and T12 the year before and T16 in 2018 indicates that Riviera is a venue he is well placed to perform well at.
Even more speculative, but overpriced to my mind is Brendon Todd (1pt each way, 250/1, 10 places). Again the short game is the angle here, and while his recent form has been peppered with missed cuts, he showed at Pebble Beach when finishing T2 that he can still turn it on when given a test that suits him. A top 25 at Sony is another recent performance that gives hope that his game is in decent enough nick to at least make the weekend, in which case 50/1 for a top 10 finish could look pretty generous. Although he has no Riviera form of note to bring to the table, the price looks a touch big on balance, so a small investment is recommended.
I’m inclined to have one more course specialist onside here and, even though his short game wouldn’t be his standout quality by any means, Adam Scott (2.5pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) fits the bill perfectly. T4 in 2022, winner in 2020, T7 in 2019 and T11 in 2017 show just how much the Aussie loves this setup. Few in this field have that sort of track record and although he’s seen unsurprisingly seen some contraction in his price, 50/1 is still more than fair. Despite being an infrequent winner nowadays for someone of his talent, there’s enough in his recent form, including second place at his home Open and two top-30s in Hawaii to suggest some of the old sparkle is still there. If he’s to get a win this season, Riviera feels by some margin to be the most plausible venue for it.
There’s a host of other interesting contenders. The top three in the world, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler (having just returned to the top spot) continue their battle and the gap between them is so close that you can guarantee they will all be fully motivated to finish as high up the leaderboard as possible, whether in contention for the win or not. But none stand out at the prices, although if forced to pick between them I’d probably side with Jon Rahm on the basis of his accuracy off the tee, favouring the fade that serves so well at Riviera. Another good showing from Tyrell Hatton wouldn’t surprise and surely it won’t be long until Tony Finau is in serious contention to add to his recent successes, particularly if his putter behaves.
Enjoy the action and good luck.
Disappointing weeks for three of our four selections, but headline pick Max Homa came so close to landing his second win for us of 2023. Having started the final round three behind Jon Rahm, he battled hard to stick his nose in front early in the back nine, but a couple of worldies from the new world number 1 ultimately meant that Max fell just short. Homa has undoubtedly taken his game to another level of late and on current form is the only guy capable of challenging the top three when they are in full flow. We called out Rahm in our preview as being the man to beat this week, so it was a little frustrating that he ultimately denied us another good payday.
I had high hopes of better performances from Scott and Noren in particular, but they were well off a pace that few in the world can live with at the moment. There already seems to be a pattern forming this season that the biggest tournaments are falling to the big names – if we can get to major season with the stars still in such a rich vein of form, we should be in for a treat. The Masters can’t come soon enough.
Overall a tiny loss on the week, so no damage done. On to the Honda Classic where most of the top players will be taking the week off, so the list of potential winners is likely to be a whole lot longer.