Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023
Overview
Dates: March 2, 2023 to March 5, 2023
Location: Florida, USA
Course: Bay Hill
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7466 yards
Prize Purse: $20000000
After Chris Kirk’s dramatic playoff win secured our fourth outright winner in the first 16 events of the 2022-3 Tour season, it’s time for another elevated-status event as all the big names are out in force at “Arnie’s Place”. Forty four of the top 50 in the world rankings are set to tee it up and a host of the stars come into this in blistering form. It’s always one of the tougher tests on Tour and with the wind set to get up for at least part of the week, scoring will be much tougher than most weeks.
Results
Well that was quite something! I’ve not seen a Sunday back 9 like that for quite some time, with so many players in with a genuine shout at victory with just two or three holes to play. Having looked in great shape for much of the week, with all four of our picks having a good shout at getting into the money for us, it was a little disappointing that we only cashed on Tyrrell Hatton’s fourth place finish in the end. Hovland in particular really should have made the places at the very least (he gave up so much ground around the greens that it was hard to watch at times), while Corey Conners unfortunately faded having looked very likely to give us a good each way payout if not contending for the title.
That said, we ended with a small profit, and we were only a holed six-footer on 18 away from Hovland adding a bit more profit to the bank. Still ticking along at around 25% ROI on the season to date, which is more than acceptable. And The Players is only a few days away!
Preview
After a quieter (albeit profitable) week at the Honda, another elevated-status event is upon us already and almost all of the world’s best return to action. The top three, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy stand out as having obvious chances, and I’d add Max Homa to that list as he’s been showing consistently of late that his game is not far (if at all) behind the standard of those at the top of the rankings.
It’s hard to maintain form at that level for an extended period though, so the obvious question is whether the recent domination we’ve seen from those players is about due to change, or can they continue to show that they’ve separated themselves from the pack?
It’s well-established that most things in life tend to revert to the mean in the long term, so it’s hard to make a case for any of Rahm, Scheffler and McIlroy offering anything in the way of value at the prices and in such a strong field.
One thing is for certain this week, it’ll take some sparkling all-round game to succeed at Bay Hill. It’s a tough track at the best of times and a bit of wind looks set to make it even tougher. It’s obvious enough that having all parts of your game in good shape is a recipe for success, but we’re really looking to identify players with no weak areas here and hitting greens in regulation looks set to be the most important attribute.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2.5 | each way | 33/1 | 8 | +3500 |
| Viktor Hovland | 2.5 | each way | 28/1 | 8 | +3100 |
| Tony Finau | 2.5 | each way | 20/1 | 10 | +2500 |
| Corey Conners | 1.5 | each way | 66/1 | 10 | +10000 |
Top billing this week goes to Tyrrell Hatton (2.5pts each way, 33/1, 8 places), who did us a favour with a top 6 finish in the Phoenix Open, has course form that matches most in this field and seems to have all elements of his game trending in the right direction. He looks to have a clear chance here, is a perfectly plausible winner and although a slightly shorter price than we took in Phoenix, this seems to be an even better fit for his game.
Viktor Hovland (2.5pts each way, 28/1, 8 places) hasn’t quite been hitting the heights recently but a return to Bay Hill, where he finished second last year, could spark a revival and he has more than enough natural ability (particularly from tee-to-green) to go very close even against such a top class field.
I was torn between going in again on Max Homa (who still isn’t being the respect he deserves by the market) and Tony Finau (2.5pts each way, 20/1, 10 places), but have sided with the latter. A tee-to-green machine, who I’ve always seen as being best suited to super-tough courses, if he can produce a half-decent week on and around the greens he must surely go very close. A slight (but by no means alarming) cooling in his form more recently has meant that he’s now becoming quite an attractive proposition at the available prices.
This event looks highly likely to go to one of the big names, but one from further down the list that makes a bit of appeal is Corey Conners (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 10 places). We all know that his long game is up there with the very best in the world and he’s usually let down as he gets closer to the hole. But long game alone could be enough to give him an advantage over many in this field and we’re praying for a decent week on the dancefloor to help him get onto the first page of the leaderboard. Yes it requires a leap of faith, but he was third here in 2021 and eleventh last year (despite a horror show on the greens), so it’s no forlorn hope that he can contend again and the price is juicy enough to take the chance.
Of the others, Will Zalatoris was firmly in my thinking and very reluctantly left off the staking plan. It was also fairly tempting to include last week’s hero Chris Kirk at double the price we took in the Honda – which was a continuation of some lovely recent form, but this is a big step up in class in terms of opposition.
Well that was quite something! I’ve not seen a Sunday back 9 like that for quite some time, with so many players in with a genuine shout at victory with just two or three holes to play. Having looked in great shape for much of the week, with all four of our picks having a good shout at getting into the money for us, it was a little disappointing that we only cashed on Tyrrell Hatton’s fourth place finish in the end. Hovland in particular really should have made the places at the very least (he gave up so much ground around the greens that it was hard to watch at times), while Corey Conners unfortunately faded having looked very likely to give us a good each way payout if not contending for the title.
That said, we ended with a small profit, and we were only a holed six-footer on 18 away from Hovland adding a bit more profit to the bank. Still ticking along at around 25% ROI on the season to date, which is more than acceptable. And The Players is only a few days away!