The Players Championship 2023
Overview
Dates: March 9, 2023 to March 12, 2023
Location: Florida, USA
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7275 yards
Prize Purse: $25000000
The big events feel like they’ve been coming thick and fast for a while now and this week brings another in the shape of The Players, golf’s unofficial “fifth major”. As ever, Sawgrass provides the dramatic backdrop for the action to unfold; while the 17th hole invariably gets all the attention, architect Pete Dye made certain that trouble is never too far away no matter where you are on his masterpiece.
Results
Well in the end it was a week that promised much but delivered a little less than looked likely. Our two main picks Max Homa and Collin Morikawa looked almost certain to make the places for us but a costly triple bogey for Morikawa on the back 9 on Sunday meant that he agonisingly finished one shot short of where we needed him. Given how strongly he started, it was disappointing that he didn’t really build on that over the weekend. Max was almost the opposite, starting fairly poorly but built gradually through the tournament to make the top 10 and ensure that we got almost half our stakes back. He continues to impress. Ben Griffin gave us a cracking run at a huge priced return and was well in the mix until the final few holes before eventually dropping away. He remains one to be very interested in as his form has been holding up well for several weeks now.
Our other three picks were disappointing, all missing the cut. While Vegas and Riley were fairly speculative, Keegan Bradley’s display was surprising – I’d had high hopes of a big week for him.
Preview
After one of the most thrilling climaxes to a PGA Tour event in recent memory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, we are spoiled once again this week with The Players Championship. If the prospect of a threeball comprising Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler slugging it out over the first two days doesn’t get your juices flowing then there must be something wrong with you.
Despite the profile of the event and the legendary status of Sawgrass, it’s not a course that suits everyone’s eye. Rory McIlroy certainly took some time to get to grips with it, finally finding a way to succeed in 2019, having previously said that he couldn’t seem to find a way to navigate it. A look down the list of winners shows a clear pattern in that it tends to fall to someone with plenty of course experience; while there have been some rookie contenders, it can be hard for them to stay in touch over the weekend as conditions firm up and the pressure builds.
We’ll definitely want some solid course form on our side, ideally gained over at least half a dozen outings in the Players. And strokes gained approach is the measure that features most prominently in helping to further whittle down the list of contenders. Four of the last eight champions made most of their ground on approach to the green and of those only Webb Simpson in 2018 managed to succeed without having been significantly ahead of the field in that department.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Keegan Bradley | 2 | each way | 50/1 | 8 | +5000 |
| Collin Morikawa | 3.5 | each way | 25/1 | 12 | +2800 |
| Max Homa | 4 | each way | 18/1 | 10 | +2000 |
| Ben Griffin | 1 | each way | 250/1 | 9 | +31000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 1.5 | each way | 125/1 | 12 | +25000 |
| Davis Riley | 1.5 | each way | 100/1 | 12 | +18000 |
Keegan Bradley (2pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) heads the list for us this week. He has elevated his game significantly in recent times and started to become a much more consistent performer. His ball-striking stacks up against most of the top players in the world, although his short game does tend to lag a little way behind. This is reflected in his performances at Sawgrass, where in both 2019 and 2022 decent finishes could have been so much better with just a touch more fortune on and around the greens. He now has three top 30s in a row in The Players, showing that he’s more than capable of plotting his way round this track; we’re definitely taking a chance that short game troubles don’t derail his bid once again, but that’s the part of the game most likely to vary from week to week, so it seems a chance well worth taking at the available prices. Even without much of an improvement in his putting, he’s a very plausible contender. A strong finish at Bay Hill seals the deal for me.
Two stand out for me towards the front of the market in the shape of Collin Morikawa (3.5pts each way, 25/1, 12 places) and our old friend Max Homa (4pts each way, 18/1, 10 places). Morikawa’s laser-like iron play should be ideally suited to Sawgrass and although he’s not done much in a couple of previous visits, he can be expected to improve with those experiences under his belt. I’m almost getting bored of writing about the improvement in Homa’s game of late, so won’t repeat myself here. 13th place last year with some uncharacteristically poor putting is enough evidence to suggest that if he brings his recent improvement here and putts like he normally does, he’s got all the tools to go very close.
Far more speculative, but I can’t let him go unbacked given his consistent recent form is Ben Griffin (1pt each way, 250/1, 9 places). Four top 40s in his last five outings show that he’s ticking along very nicely and while it would certainly be a huge step up to contend in a Players, he makes comfortably the most appeal of those whose price suggests they are absolute no-hopers.
I’m happy to include one more longshot in the shape of Jhonattan Vegas (1.5pts each way, 125/1, 12 places), who’s made a bunch of cuts here and whose third in 2019 particularly catches the eye. To my mind he’s been gradually edging back into something like his best form of late and his long game is likely to serve him well. We could use a bit of a revival on the greens to get him into contention, but at the available price he’s another I’m happy to take a chance on. Interesting to note there has been a little money around for him in the early exchanges.
Our final pick is someone who has been in awful form for a while, but over the last fortnight has shown a little jolt of improvement which, if he can maintain it, could see him having a big week. Davis Riley (1.5pts each way, 100/1, 12 places) was being talked up as the next big thing not so long ago and perhaps that pressure was a little too much so early in his career. After several missed cuts on the bounce, a top 30 in the Honda followed swiftly by a top 10 in at Bay Hill suggests that maybe his recovery will gain some momentum now, in which case 20/1 for a top 12 finish could certainly look a little big.
Happy to have six players on our side this week with some fairly juicy prices included. Justin Thomas was very close to being included (probably at the expense of Morikawa) and Matt Fitzpatrick was the other one I could see going very well. It’ll be great viewing to watch the top three in the world go head-to-head on Thursday and Friday; one of them may well win it, but their chances are clear for all to see and I can’t get excited about any of them at the prices.
Well in the end it was a week that promised much but delivered a little less than looked likely. Our two main picks Max Homa and Collin Morikawa looked almost certain to make the places for us but a costly triple bogey for Morikawa on the back 9 on Sunday meant that he agonisingly finished one shot short of where we needed him. Given how strongly he started, it was disappointing that he didn’t really build on that over the weekend. Max was almost the opposite, starting fairly poorly but built gradually through the tournament to make the top 10 and ensure that we got almost half our stakes back. He continues to impress. Ben Griffin gave us a cracking run at a huge priced return and was well in the mix until the final few holes before eventually dropping away. He remains one to be very interested in as his form has been holding up well for several weeks now.
Our other three picks were disappointing, all missing the cut. While Vegas and Riley were fairly speculative, Keegan Bradley’s display was surprising – I’d had high hopes of a big week for him.