RBC Heritage 2023
Overview
Dates: April 13, 2023 to April 16, 2023
Location: South Carolina, USA
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7121 yards
Prize Purse: $8000000
After the high drama of the Masters, it’s straight on to the RBC Heritage. This tournament has a different feel this year – normally many of the big names would have taken a break after the first major of the season, but this time around it’s been elevated to “designated event” status, with the vast majority of the world’s best now making the trip to South Carolina. Rory McIlroy is a notable exception, having withdrawn from the field after a disappointing missed cut at Augusta.
Results
A week where we pretty much stood still from a P&L perspective, with Sahith Theegala’s top 5 finish the only bright spot for us, but enough to convert what looked like a wipeout into just a small loss.
Three of our picks were very disappointing – it’s pretty rare for us to have three missed cuts, but JT Poston, Tom Kim and most surprisingly Max Homa all failed to make the weekend. Kuchar again performed with credit, banking another top 20, while Keegan Bradley finished midfield. Theegala continues to impress however and remains well worth considering for future events – he looks likely to rack up numerous high finishes on his way to a first victory that surely can’t be too long in coming.
While last year’s 1-2 Spieth and Cantlay again showed their liking for Harbour Town, it was Matt Fitzpatrick who took the honours, with a fabulous approach shot in the playoff sealing the deal and providing further evidence that he’s one of the best at closing out when he gets in the mix on Sunday.
The Mexico Open is next up, albeit we’ll likely be having a fairly quiet week with a very lopsided looking field as Rahm and Finau the standout names, and few who can be seriously fancied to give them too much trouble if they are fully motivated.
Preview
It’s hard to know which way to go this week. The evidence so far this season points squarely to the new designated events being picked up by players close to the top of the world rankings. But I’ve always been wary of the weeks that immediately follow the majors, where plenty will be less motivated than they were the previous week and may well still be carrying the disappointment of having missed out on their latest opportunity to bag a major. So perhaps it’ll make sense to treat those at the front of the market with some degree of caution unless there is a clear and compelling case for having them on side.
Masters winner Jon Rahm will no doubt be suffering from some degree of fatigue from the exertions of battling it out with Brooks Koepka over a long Sunday and the ensuing media duties. He’s easy enough to pass up at around the 10/1 mark. Of the favourites, Patrick Cantlay probably makes the most appeal after a solid showing at Augusta, but is also plenty short enough at 12/1. So we’ll be going deeper into the field to find the value…
Harbour Town is fairly short, with tight, tree-lined fairways, so suits players with a tidy all-round game. A bit of form either here or at similar tracks like Waialaie, Sea Island and Colonial certainly wouldn’t go amiss, but it’s certainly a venue where those who struggle to keep up with the bombers can come into their own.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Tom Kim | 2.5 | each way | 40/1 | 8 | +4000 |
| Max Homa | 3 | each way | 28/1 | 8 | +3000 |
| Matt Kuchar | 2 | each way | 50/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| JT Poston | 2 | each way | 80/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Sahith Theegala | 1.5 | each way | 66/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Keegan Bradley | 1.5 | each way | 80/1 | 8 | +8000 |
Our first pick is last year’s wonder kid Tom Kim (2.5pts each way, 40/1, 8 places), who is gradually working his way back to something like the form that saw him take the golf world by storm when he burst onto the scene. Augusta playing as long as it did after the rain last week wouldn’t have played to his strengths and a top 20 finish was a superb effort in the circumstances, particularly given his lack of experience at a course that tends to reward those who know it intimately. Harbour Town should suit him much better and he can be fancied to improve on that showing.
I can’t understand why Max Homa (3pts each way, 28/1, 8 places) sits around 10th in the market given that he’s been comfortably the fourth best golfer on the planet in the last year or so (and one of the three ahead of him doesn’t play this week). It feels like an over-reaction to his relatively disappointing week at Augusta, although I wouldn’t read too much into that – it’s never been a course that he’s done well at, doesn’t suit his eye off the tee, so I’d fully expect him to get back into regular contention sooner rather than later. Having been going off around 16/1 recently, this looks like a rare opportunity to have him on our side at a very appealing price.
Two course specialists we are keen to include are Matt Kuchar (2pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) and JT Poston (2pts each way, 80/1). Kooch is a former champion here, with a string of top 25 finishes since he won the event in 2014. He’s also a guy who tends to show up repeatedly at places he’s done well at before (usually the shorter, tighter courses such as Harbour Town), as was the case a couple of weeks ago in Texas, where we included him on the basis of course form and he duly scored a top 3 finish for us. Poston’s profile is similar, with three top 10s in this event from the last four editions and a perfectly respectable top 40 last week in the Masters showing that his game is in decent enough shape to be a realistic contender at a venue that suits him much better.
Sahith Theegala (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 8 places) outperformed expectations at Augusta with a top 10 finish and it’s a little surprising to see this sort of price available about someone who is widely considered to be one of the most talented players yet to secure a tour victory. Chances are that he will grab his first win sooner rather than later and with his game having been trending upwards in all departments over the last three months, there’s every chance of another good performance from him this week.
Finally we’ll include Keegan Bradley (1.5pts each way, 80/1, 8 places), who had a fairly quiet week in the Masters but still finished tucked just inside the top 25. He’s a ball striker on a ball striker’s course this week and it’s interesting to note that Lowry, Fleetwood, Henley, Conners, Rose and Fowler all sit behind Keegan in the world rankings but above him in this market. Some decent previous form at Waialaie should translate well here, which makes him easy to see as value here at the price available.
One longshot worth considering for top 20/40 markets is Emiliano Grillo, who has some historical form both here and at the other courses we’ve looked at. Perhaps not in enough recent form to be viewed as a likely (or even plausible) winner, so omitted from our outright picks he may though outperform expectations.
A week where we pretty much stood still from a P&L perspective, with Sahith Theegala’s top 5 finish the only bright spot for us, but enough to convert what looked like a wipeout into just a small loss.
Three of our picks were very disappointing – it’s pretty rare for us to have three missed cuts, but JT Poston, Tom Kim and most surprisingly Max Homa all failed to make the weekend. Kuchar again performed with credit, banking another top 20, while Keegan Bradley finished midfield. Theegala continues to impress however and remains well worth considering for future events – he looks likely to rack up numerous high finishes on his way to a first victory that surely can’t be too long in coming.
While last year’s 1-2 Spieth and Cantlay again showed their liking for Harbour Town, it was Matt Fitzpatrick who took the honours, with a fabulous approach shot in the playoff sealing the deal and providing further evidence that he’s one of the best at closing out when he gets in the mix on Sunday.
The Mexico Open is next up, albeit we’ll likely be having a fairly quiet week with a very lopsided looking field as Rahm and Finau the standout names, and few who can be seriously fancied to give them too much trouble if they are fully motivated.