Rocket Mortgage Classic
Overview
Dates: June 29, 2023 to July 2, 2023
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Course: Detroit Golf Club
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7,370
Prize Purse: $8800000
Tony Finau returns to Detroit Golf Club to defend the title he won by 5 shots last year. You would have got long odds a year ago about Rickie Fowler heading the market for any event, yet he and the defending champ look set to do so this week. Despite Rickie’s resurgence into the top 40 in the world rankings, it’s hard to say he offers value at around the 14/1 mark, so we’ll be looking deeper into the field for our picks.
Preview
The starting point for this week’s analysis has to be the likely winning score. Recent editions have seen the mark at -26, -18, -23 and -25, so it’s evident that giving yourself a whole heap of makeable looks at birdie and putting well enough to convert them is going to be essential to success. Detroit GC is not overly long at just under 7400 yards with a par of 72, so it’s likely to be approach proximity and strokes gained putting that will make the biggest difference.
The likes of DeChambeau and Finau have shown that this course can be taken apart, while less-heralded names like Nate Lashley and Cameron Davis have also posted wins at this venue. It’s one of the weakest fields we’ve seen this season and we’ll be selecting a mixture of players who have proven they can close out when the pressure is on and a couple who have the potential to make their breakthrough sooner rather than later.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3 | each way | 45/1 | 8 | +5000 |
| Brian Harman | 2 | each way | 40/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| Austin Eckroat | 2 | each way | 50/1 | 10 | +5500 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 1.5 | each way | 80/1 | 8 | +11000 |
| Keegan Bradley | 3 | each way | 25/1 | 10 | +3000 |
Our first pick is a guy who’s been quietly on our radar in the shape of Ludvig Aberg (3pts each way, 45/1, 8 places). On world ranking (568) and FedEx position (198) he wouldn’t be the first player in this field to come to mind by any means, but make no mistake, this guy is seriously talented and has a big future ahead of him. Having picked up a couple of wins towards the end of his amateur career, he’s shown in two top 25 finishes on the PGA Tour that he has more than enough game to be competitive at the top table. Whatever his stats may say, there’s no doubt that he has a huge amount of upside potential when compared to the rest of this field and prices like this are likely to be a distant memory as he progresses through the rank, so this feels like a great opportunity to have him on our side.
Brian Harman (2pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) put in a very solid showing at the Travelers last week and seems to be coming through a slump in form, with a T43 at the US Open and T29 in the Charles Schwab also creditable performances. We know that he can be very tidy at his best and having finished 11th in putting, 14th on approach and 6th around the greens, if he can carry those numbers forward he looks well set to contend again at a venue where his lack of length ought not be too much of a disadvantage.
Austin Eckroat (2pts each way, 50/1, 10 places) has been quietly racking up some impressive finishes without making any headlines. Believe it or not he ranks 8th in this field in total strokes gained over the last 3 months and his last five outings have all yielded top 30 finishes, a tie for second in the Byron Nelson being the highlight. With all aspects of his game in good shape, he warrants including even though some of the bigger prices have understandably been taken earlier in the week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (1.5pts each way, 80/1, 8 places) is perhaps something of an underachiever, but the things he does well (putting and approach play) should translate well to this venue and he rates a sporting selection to give us a run at the places. Three recent top 40 finishes isn’t too bad in the context of this week’s field and while I wouldn’t be over-confident in his ability to finish the job if in contention, he’s certainly one of the more gifted players in his price bracket, so we’ll play him to small stakes.
Finally, although we’re generally no fans of backing players to go back-to-back in consecutive weeks, it’s very hard to leave Keegan Bradley (3pts each way, 25/1, 10 places) out of our staking plan. There’s no doubt he comes in to this in top form and full of confidence after his win at the Travelers and having topped the putting stats last week he faces what should be a very similar test. There are fewer doubts about him than most of those ahead of him in the market. While he could blow out on the back of having won last week, if he were to win again we’d be kicking ourselves at having missed something so obvious. The price is big enough to take that chance.
We can’t help but feel that JT will hit top form again sooner rather than later, while Tom Kim is another who could just be on the way back. But there isn’t enough in either price to tempt us on this occasion. At bigger prices, Gordon Sargeant and Justin Suh are both hugely talented and would be perfectly reasonable alternatives for those who want a couple more options at big prices.