Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Overview
Dates: October 27, 2022 to October 30, 2022
Location: Southampton, Bermuda
Course: Port Royal GC
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 6828 yards
Prize Purse: $6500000
A very different feel to this week’s event, with all of the big names missing and the tour stopping off in Bermuda. This poses a very different question for us as it’s hard to find many names with the potential to win any tour event; for most of them even being in contention would be unusual, so we’re looking for players whose good days could be good enough to bag a sub-standard contest and who are most likely to hold it together when the opportunity arises.
Results
Phew! Sighs of relief all round at the FormGolfer offices last night as Seamus Power just about got the job done to land a nice 22/1 winner to back up Rory McIlroy’s win the week before. Having looked for a while like it might all be quite comfortable after his main rival Ben Griffin folded tamely on the back 9, Seamus did all he good to make us sweat but ultimately tapped in for bogey on the last to secure his second PGA Tour victory and a 47 point profit on the week for us.
Griffin definitely gave us a good helping hand with some understandable nerves as he tried to close out, but having had several close calls go against us recently, we’ll happily take this one going in our favour.
Despite having found the winner, it’s worth noting that these birdie-fests on easy resort courses can be very tricky puzzles to solve as it’s very hard to create separation from the field when opportunities come at almost every whole for most of the field.
It could and perhaps should have been even better, with both Alex Smalley and Robby Shelton having a great chance to at least make the top 8 (and Shelton in particular looking a likely winner for much of the event), but ultimately falling just short. I’d much sooner have the winner than two or three in the places though. SH Kim was the only real disappointment from our picks – perhaps the windy test at Port Royal wasn’t quite his cup of tea – and he definitely remains on the radar going forward.
We’ll be trying to make it three in a row at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba this week, where some of the bigger names are scheduled to make a welcome return to action.
Preview
Having bagged a nice profit courtesy of Rory McIlroy’s victory at the CJ Cup, we move on to the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Club. No big names in the field and those at the top of the market would typically regard a top 20 finish as a very good week. That makes it somewhat tricky to find potential winners as few of this field will get their name on much silverware through the course of their careers.
That said, there are some definite patterns to look for in this event and we’ve found several selections that we are confident offer decent value.
It’s very clear that a hot putter will be needed to win this event. Scores in the high teens to low twenties under par are likely to be required, particularly given that the weather appears set to be more benign than it was last year. Port Royal is a short course by tour standards and accuracy off the tee to put the ball in position to set up a lot of birdie opportunities is the other statistic we’ll be looking for.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| SH Kim | 3 | each way | 30/1 | 8 | +3000 |
| Adam Long | 2.5 | each way | 50/1 | 8 | +5000 |
| Robby Shelton | 2 | each way | 40/1 | 8 | +4000 |
| Alex Smalley | 2 | each way | 33/1 | 8 | +3300 |
| Seamus Power | 2.5 | each way | 22/1 | 8 | +2500 |
Our first pick this week is SH Kim (3pts each way, 30/1, 8 places). Quietly racking up a bunch of good performances, his all-round game is solid, he’s improving fast and more than most in this line-up he has the potential to make further progress up the rankings. Accurate off the tee and with above-average putting stats, he should certainly make the top 20 and may well do a good bit better than that.
Adam Long (2.5pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) has stats that shape up perfectly for this week’s test and he has plenty of recent form that looks good in the context of the opposition he faces. His price is the clincher and he appeals as the most overpriced option.
Robby Shelton (2pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) had a quiet year or two but having graduated to the main tour from the Korn Ferry has looked pretty good, with three of three cuts made and two top 25s. He’s in the top 40 in the FedEx standings at this early stage, which can’t be said for many of his rivals. His lack of distance won’t be a problem at Port Royal and his short game is extremely tidy.
It would be easy to make a case that Alex Smalley (2pts each way, 33/1, 8 places) is good value to miss the cut. But I also believe he’s good value to win this event. His form shows huge levels of inconsistency, but as I’ve written before, inconsistency is something we should look for in hunting down value. His best game is undoubtedly good enough to go very close here – we’re taking a chance that he avoids a blow-out week, but I’d rather have someone on my side who on a going day can go low enough to separate himself from the field. Smalley certainly fits the bill on that score.
Finally, we’ll include Seamus Power (2.5pts each way, 22/1, 8 places). Probably the most talented golfer in the field, he’s been a little quiet recently, but you don’t have to go back too far to find him finishing top 30 in three of the four majors last year. His approach play has been letting him down but that may be less of a factor this week than is sometimes the case, and it can be exceptional when on song (the AT&T at Pebble Beach last year springing to mind). On anything like his best form I’d have him as a clear favourite for this and the price available is more than fair.
The two others that were closely considered were Mark Hubbard and Adrian Meronk, but at the best available prices they just didn’t tempt me as much as those we have gone with. Denny McCarthy looks set to go off favourite, mainly because he’s often the first name trotted out when a good putter is needed, but I’m not sure his long game is good enough to justify being market leader.
Phew! Sighs of relief all round at the FormGolfer offices last night as Seamus Power just about got the job done to land a nice 22/1 winner to back up Rory McIlroy’s win the week before. Having looked for a while like it might all be quite comfortable after his main rival Ben Griffin folded tamely on the back 9, Seamus did all he good to make us sweat but ultimately tapped in for bogey on the last to secure his second PGA Tour victory and a 47 point profit on the week for us.
Griffin definitely gave us a good helping hand with some understandable nerves as he tried to close out, but having had several close calls go against us recently, we’ll happily take this one going in our favour.
Despite having found the winner, it’s worth noting that these birdie-fests on easy resort courses can be very tricky puzzles to solve as it’s very hard to create separation from the field when opportunities come at almost every whole for most of the field.
It could and perhaps should have been even better, with both Alex Smalley and Robby Shelton having a great chance to at least make the top 8 (and Shelton in particular looking a likely winner for much of the event), but ultimately falling just short. I’d much sooner have the winner than two or three in the places though. SH Kim was the only real disappointment from our picks – perhaps the windy test at Port Royal wasn’t quite his cup of tea – and he definitely remains on the radar going forward.
We’ll be trying to make it three in a row at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba this week, where some of the bigger names are scheduled to make a welcome return to action.