Cadence Bank Houston Open 2022
Overview
Dates: November 10, 2022 to November 13, 2022
Location: Houston, Texas
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7412 yards
Prize Purse: $8400000
Memorial Park is again the venue for the Houston Open as the fall season heads into its final weeks. Scottie Scheffler heads the field, with Sam Burns, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama the other big names teeing it up. Russell Henley will be hoping to continue the form that saw him pick up his first title in years in Mexico last week.
Results
A second consecutive near miss for us, with Joel Dahmen failing to make the places by a single shot, as Taylor Montgomery had done the previous week. Also frustrating was the fact that we clearly highlighted Scheffler as a bad favourite, and pinpointed Tony Finau as the best value from the front of the market. Sadly we left Finau off the staking plan only to see him stroll to victory having looked the winner from midway through his second round. Several of our selections were ultimately rather disappointing, in particular Montgomery who chose a bad week for his putting form to completely desert him But that’ll happen on occasion in the weeks when you’re mainly looking for longshots for your picks.
Preview
Memorial Park hosts the Houston Open for the third consecutive year, which gives us limited course form to draw on. The patterns in the data are somewhat inconclusive; I’ve read some previews that have suggested it favours the bombers, while others point to touch on and around the greens as the key indicator of success. I’m definitely leaning towards the latter. In both 2021 and 2022 the top 10 positions were filled with players who had good weeks with wedge and putter in their hands. There are tricky run off areas which make strokes gained around the green in particular a bigger factor this week than is often the case. But it may pay not to be too dogmatic about this – last year Jason Kokrak was able to secure victory despite being in negative territory around the greens, while Luke List made the top 10 despite a (characteristically) horrible showing from his putter.
Unlike the last couple of events, we’re not looking at a low-scoring shootout here, with more modest winning scores around the 10-under mark expected.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Taylor Montgomery | 4 | each way | 25/1 | 8 | +2800 |
| Justin Lower | 1.5 | each way | 100/1 | 8 | +12500 |
| Taylor Moore | 1.5 | each way | 60/1 | 8 | +7000 |
| Joel Dahmen | 2 | each way | 40/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| Harris English | 1.5 | each way | 66/1 | 8 | +8000 |
I am 100% in danger of following this guy off the edge of a cliff, but I still think Taylor Montgomery (4pts each way, 25/1, 8 places) is good value here, so I’m going to headline him again. He so nearly landed us a placed finish last week, just one shot outside the money, and he’s turning up week after week with big performances. He looks like the finest putter on tour bar none to me (backed up by the stats) and tops this field in SG overall in the last three months. I give him a much better chance of victory here than the likes of Henley, Day and Matsuyama, who are all around the same price in the market. If he won this and we weren’t on him, I’d be kicking myself.
Justin Lower (1.5pts each way, 100/1, 8 places) looks to be overpriced for a guy who is on a run of cuts made and has two top 10s in his last 5 outings. In positive strokes gained territory in every aspect of his game recently, his price just looks big to me. He was around the 33/1 mark in Bermuda (in a weaker field, admittedly), but three-figure quotes are too dismissive given his form of late.
The case for Taylor Moore (1.5pts each way, 60/1, 8 places) is very similar to that for Lower. Bar a missed cut at the Shriners, he’s made top 40 in each of his other recent starts, and his strokes gained profile also shows that his game is firing on every front. His overall SG numbers are slightly ahead of those of Lower, but his price is slightly shorter, so I’m happy to conclude that both offer similar value.
Joel Dahmen (2pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) is the very definition of ‘trending’ right now. His last three starts have seen him finish T37, T16 and T3. His one win on tour came at Punta Cana, so he’s shown he can do the job in the wind that he’s likely to face this week in Texas. The clincher is that he showed a liking for this course last year with a T5 finish. His chance hasn’t gone unnoticed by the odds compilers, but the price is fair enough for a guy who looks to be on the cusp of a really big week.
Finally we’ll include Harris English (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 8 places) who has been slowly working his way back following injury and was looking on good terms with his game for the most part in Mexico. His short game in particular looks to be in good nick at the moment. On his best form we wouldn’t be getting anything like this price, so we’ll take a punt that his return to something like his best may continue.
Of those at the front of the market, Tony Finau jumps out as the best value. Yes, he missed the cut at Mayakoba, but does that really mean he should be ranked alongside Aaron Wise by the odds compilers? Wise has been in great form, but I can’t see him picking up anything like the number of events that Finau will. We were on Andrew Putnam last week and he did ok; this is another venue that could suit, so a better showing this week without the weight of our money on his back wouldn’t surprise. And Maverick McNealy’s form has been up there with anyone in this field lately; it’s only his price that puts me off getting involved.
A second consecutive near miss for us, with Joel Dahmen failing to make the places by a single shot, as Taylor Montgomery had done the previous week. Also frustrating was the fact that we clearly highlighted Scheffler as a bad favourite, and pinpointed Tony Finau as the best value from the front of the market. Sadly we left Finau off the staking plan only to see him stroll to victory having looked the winner from midway through his second round. Several of our selections were ultimately rather disappointing, in particular Montgomery who chose a bad week for his putting form to completely desert him But that’ll happen on occasion in the weeks when you’re mainly looking for longshots for your picks.