CJ Cup 2022
Overview
Dates: October 20, 2022 to October 23, 2022
Location: South Carolina, USA
Course: Congaree Golf Club
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7655 yards
Prize Purse: $10500000
After a brief jaunt to the Far East for the Zozo Championship, the tour returns to the states this week for the CJ Cup. Some big names take part, none more so than defending champion Rory McIlroy. We’ve come up with three confident picks from towards the top of the market and a couple of less obvious outsiders for our staking plan.
Results
A good week that could easily have been a little better for us, with Rory McIlroy (our biggest ever recommended stake at 5 points each way) winning comfortably enough in the end, although he ultimately used all of the space he’d put between himself and the field in getting over the line. Everything suggests Rory is well-placed for a period of dominance now – his game is in great shape and mentally he seems to be in as good a place as I’ve seen him for ages. He’s showing a level of consistency that had been missing over the last few years, with the mid-tournament blips that had been regularly holding him back seemingly much less prevalent now. Having regained the world number one spot, I expect him to hold it for most of this year if not beyond.
We had some good performances from our other selections, although none quite managed to cash for us. Tom Kim admitted to “running on fumes” after three rounds of the CJ Cup and unfortunately this left him just outside the top 10. He probably (and understandably) needs a break, but I expect him to rise further up the rankings when he returns. Jason Day also came very close to landing a big-priced place for us, but didn’t quite putt well enough – if he stays injury free his long game certainly looks to be in good shape. Headline selection Max Homa went ok without ever quite getting close enough to give us hope. Even Trey Mullinax, a completely unconsidered (by most) 200/1 shot, gave us a good run through the first couple of days, hitting the lead for a while on day 1, before playing some truly horrible golf over the weekend.
A nice profit on the week and one that puts us ahead four tournaments into the new tour season.
Preview
OK, the less said about the Zozo the better. While this will undoubtedly sound like a bad case of after-timing, it’s the kind of tournament that I’m not particularly keen on, with the long trip across the pond for a good few in the field supplemented by numerous locals about whom we don’t know much. It was hard to know what to make of the result, with many of the fancied contenders buried some way down the leaderboard. On balance I’m inclined to largely disregard it from a form perspective and resolve to keep stakes to a minimum (if getting involved at all) in the future. Let’s see if we can get back to form this week as the core season resumes.
This week sees a return to the USA, albeit to a course in Congaree that’s not been used for this event before, and only once previously on the PGA Tour at the Palmetto Championship in 2021, when Garrick Higgo emerged victorious. Despite the fact that we only have one year of course form to make use of, there was a clear pattern in the data in that a strong tee-to-green game was essential and strokes gained off the tee (although not necessarily through distance) was particularly important. Several players managed to make the top 20 in spite of fairly poor weeks on and around the greens.
Bar one exception, we’ll be avoiding those who took part in the Zozo for this week’s recommendations, as the trip to and from Japan can hardly be an ideal preparation, even for those who had a good week.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Max Homa | 4 | each way | 28/1 | 7 | +3100 |
| Rory McIlroy | 5 | each way | 8/1 | 6 | +800 |
| Tom Kim | 2.5 | each way | 30/1 | 6 | +3000 |
| Jason Day | 1.5 | each way | 66/1 | 7 | +8000 |
| Trey Mullinax | 1 | each way | 200/1 | 6 | +20000 |
Max Homa (4pts each way, 28/1, 7 places) jumps off the page for me as our headline recommendation this week. He came into the new season buoyed by a fantastic 2022 and that form shows no signs of abating with a win at the Fortinet and a top 20 at the Shriners (notably a tournament where he has missed several cuts in the past). Strong in all dimensions of his game, importantly including off the tee, it’s hard to see a weakness and he deserves to be closer to the front of the market. The fact he missed the Zozo also counts in his favour, so we’ll go with a strong each way play on him.
There is some daylight between Rory McIlroy (5 points each way, 8/1, 6 places) and the rest of the field in terms of tee to green performance. Based on the improvement seen in his wedge game and putting towards the end of last season, this feels like a year where he could re-establish himself as the world’s number one. Having been critical of his tendency to throw away winning opportunities in the past, I’ll go out on a limb and say that I’m expecting as many as four or five wins from him this season, quite possibly including that elusive next major title. A best price of 8/1 feels like fair value for him as I wouldn’t see him going off much bigger than that for the majors if he continues his recent form. While this field is strong enough with a fair few big names, only 78 take part, including at least 10 or so whose chance can be described as remote at best.
Tom Kim (2.5pts each way, 30/1, 6 places), perhaps understandably, had a slightly cooler week at the Zozo having just secured his second tour victory, but at a venue that should play to his exceptional game from the tee (in particular in terms of driving accuracy), his price is just enough this week to convince me to get involved. His price implies that we should expect one win per season from him, while everything we’ve seen so far from this incredible young talent suggests that should very much be a lower limit of his ambitions.
We’ll complete our selections with two picks at much bigger prices. First is Jason Day (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 7 places), who is still prone to bad weeks and will always come with a fitness risk, but has shown on several occasions that his long game in particular is still capable of getting him into contention, as it did in his most recent outing at the Shriners. There’s enough upside in his price and potential for a further return to form to warrant getting involved.
Trey Mullinax (1pt each way, 200/1, 6 places) is even more speculative, particularly off the back of two missed cuts to start his season. But his strong finish to last season means that his strokes gained numbers are comparable on a 3-month timeframe to the likes of Scheffler, Hovland, Wise and Hatton, all of whom are a considerably shorter price. Perhaps he’s been written off a little too quickly based on a sluggish start to 2022/3 and at a huge price we can afford to take that chance.
It was hard to discount any of those at the front of the market with confidence, with both Cameron Young and Corey Conners in particular looking like they should be suited by this test, albeit I’d like to have seen some slightly better recent form to justify getting involved at the prices available. It was also a surprise to see Sepp Straka available at double the price (100/1) that he was last week; on balance of form he continues to be under-rated and was reluctantly left off the staking plan on the basis that his previous start at this venue resulted in a missed cut. Tyrrell Hatton is interesting on the basis of having finished tied second when the tour was last at Congaree, despite a miserable week with the putter, but he just hasn’t looked like a winner waiting to happen in recent outings.
A good week that could easily have been a little better for us, with Rory McIlroy (our biggest ever recommended stake at 5 points each way) winning comfortably enough in the end, although he ultimately used all of the space he’d put between himself and the field in getting over the line. Everything suggests Rory is well-placed for a period of dominance now – his game is in great shape and mentally he seems to be in as good a place as I’ve seen him for ages. He’s showing a level of consistency that had been missing over the last few years, with the mid-tournament blips that had been regularly holding him back seemingly much less prevalent now. Having regained the world number one spot, I expect him to hold it for most of this year if not beyond.
We had some good performances from our other selections, although none quite managed to cash for us. Tom Kim admitted to “running on fumes” after three rounds of the CJ Cup and unfortunately this left him just outside the top 10. He probably (and understandably) needs a break, but I expect him to rise further up the rankings when he returns. Jason Day also came very close to landing a big-priced place for us, but didn’t quite putt well enough – if he stays injury free his long game certainly looks to be in good shape. Headline selection Max Homa went ok without ever quite getting close enough to give us hope. Even Trey Mullinax, a completely unconsidered (by most) 200/1 shot, gave us a good run through the first couple of days, hitting the lead for a while on day 1, before playing some truly horrible golf over the weekend.
A nice profit on the week and one that puts us ahead four tournaments into the new tour season.