Farmers Insurance Open 2022
Farmers Insurance Open 2022 Overview
Dates: January 26, 2022 to January 29, 2022
Location: San Diego, California, U.S.
Course: Torrey Pines
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7,765 yards (7,100 m) (S) · 7,258 yards (6,637 m) (N)
Prize Purse: $8400000
The Farmers Insurance Open is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour, played in the San Diego, California, area in the early part of the season known as the “West Coast Swing”.
Farmers Insurance Open 2022 Results
Luke List may have claimed a maiden PGA Tour title and a ticket to the Masters to boot, but it was not just the 37-year-old American anxiously willing his winning birdie putt into the cup during a play-off with Will Zalatoris at the Farmers Insurance Open on Saturday.
In truth, we were already celebrating at Form Golfer Towers – despite a few palpitations along the way, with some 15 or so players in close contention going into the back nine, we ended up after 72 holes guaranteed the winner and second, so things were looking good.
Then, despite a two-hour wait after setting the clubhouse target, List hit the wedge of his life in the play-off at Torrey Pines – so close that even he couldn’t miss the following putt – and the 80-1 shot turned a tidy profit into a spectacular one.
Zalatoris, who started the tournament at 25-1 and missed a birdie chance of his own on the final hole to win it outright, would have to settle for a second-placed finish that helped contribute to a 190% ROI this week and 161.4 points profit from an 85-point stake.
Both players were simply superb tee-to-green and could have distanced themselves from the field earlier but, as highlighted in our preview, have had issues with their putting. List in particular was able to address those problems, gaining a remarkable four strokes putting on the opening day to set the platform for his first PGA Tour victory at the 206th attempt.
They are clearly two supremely talented guys but will need to be punted sparingly and on courses where their tee-to-green prowess gives them a real advantage over the field.
Elsewhere, there were a couple of frustrating close calls.
A weak finish from Marc Leishman, a player previously boasting impressive course form and an each-way pick at 33-1, narrowly cost him a placed finish while Cameron Young ended in a five-way tie for 20th, diluting the 9-1 winner that had looked like landing for much of the final round.
But it would be greedy to have expected every close call to go our way and we woke up this morning trying, and failing, to fight off the sort of satisfied smugness that comes with knowing you have played an absolute blinder – things don’t often go that well, so we should enjoy it when they do.
Weeks like this also reaffirm our belief that analysing and utilising the data in the correct way can provide great value, something we will continue to strive to do with confidence.
One slightly disappointing market, however, was this week’s match-ups – especially given the success in this area in previous weeks – with only two of the six landing.
This is a relatively new area for us and, while we are still learning, remain confident that they should form a key part of our value strategy. We will be making a small tweak in analysis approach here, which we expect to pay dividends.
In conclusion, it is as good a week as we have had so far in testing and takes our total profit banked during the test period to more than 230 points.
Farmers Insurance Open 2022 Preview
Mixed emotions at last week’s results. Having highlighted the likes of Swafford and Hoge as under-rated by the market on several occasions recently, it was encouraging to see them putting in such big performances, although unfortunately they didn’t make the staking plan. Hoge and Putnam were good results for us in the top 20s, but we could have done with either Zalatoris or Si Woo making the top 5 to turn a small loss into a profit on the week.
On to Torrey Pines for the Farmers – a tournament that shapes up well for punting with some clear pointers to focus on and course form holding up well over the years, so we’ll be staking accordingly. Conventional wisdom has it that the South Course in particular is a bomber’s paradise; it’s certainly long, and the rough can be penal. But the stats don’t necessarily bear this out. It’s notable that SG putting has been a stronger predictor of success in this tournament than the tour average, and a look through historical results shows plenty of shorter hitters and players who’ve not gained significantly off the tee who have been in contention come Sunday. Watch out for hundreds of mentions of Poa Annua during the week, and putting performance on that surface is certainly a key consideration, albeit the North course (which is only used for one round over the first two days) is now primarily bentgrass.
So we’ll be taking a balanced view here and will happily include some shorter hitters in the staking plan, provided they have some solid course form or an affinity with the Poa greens.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Marc Leishman | 3 | EW | 33/1 | 8 | |
| Luke List | 2 | EW | 80/1 | 8 | |
| Sam Burns | 2 | EW | 20/1 | 10 | |
| Will Zalatoris | 1.5 | EW | 25/1 | 10 | |
| Max Homa | 1.5 | EW | 50/1 | 10 | |
| Brandt Snedeker | 1 | EW | 100/1 | 8 | |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 1 | EW | 80/1 | 10 |
First up this week is Marc Leishman (3pts ew, 33/1, 8 places), who brings a stack of course form to the table, has been playing very nicely for some time, and there’s enough juice in his price to make him a fairly confident each way prospect. If he’s going to get over the line and win one, this could well be the week.
Luke List (2pts ew, 80/1, 8 places) stays on the staking plan after another solid performance last week, and this being one of his strongest courses (top 40 in each of the last four years). Few in the field likely to be stronger tee-to-green and even a half decent week with the putter, which is as likely to come here as anywhere, should see him in contention over the weekend.
Regular readers will know that I’m expecting another big year for Sam Burns (2pts ew, 20/1, 10 places) and his price is just enough to persuade me to go in again, particularly with the 10 places on offer).
Will Zalatoris (1.5pts ew, 25/1, 10 places) is hard to leave out after a very good 2022 debut last week and again with some solid historical course form. Some better putting than normal was encouraging at the AmEx, and this is a surface he’s done comparatively well on in the past. He’s been well found in the market (in from 40s earlier in the week). Although I’m not excited about his price any more, he just ticks too many boxes to leave out altogether, especially since we so narrowly missed out with him last week.
We’ll finish up with three more speculative options in Max Homa (1.5pts ew, 50/1, 10 places), who appears to be working his way back to form, Brandt Snedeker (1pt ew, 100/1, 8 places), a previous winner of this tournament and expert on Poa Annua, and Jhonattan Vegas (1pt ew, 80/1, 10 places), a big hitter who has been consistent over a number of months now and perhaps deserves to be a touch shorter in the market.
It goes without saying that a win for Rahm would hardly surprise on the course where he won his first major (and the 2017 Farmers), but I can let him win at 8/1 without losing sleep. Daniel Berger was the hardest to leave out this week as I’m convinced he wins something soon, but I just feel there will be better fits for him than Torrey Pines in the coming weeks. Hopefully we’ll be on him at the right time!
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Hoge to beat Day (TNB) | 12 | Evens | |
| Leishman to beat Zalatoris (TNB) | 8 | 11/10 | |
| Johnson to beat Koepka (TNB) | 8 | 8/11 | |
| Thomas to beat Rahm | 8 | 11/8 | |
| Dahmen to beat Streelman (TNB) | 7 | 4/5 | |
| Burns to beat Finau | 6 | 17/20 |
A small profit on match ups last week courtesy of our two biggest stakes being successful; making up for disappointing performances from Wolff and Gooch.
Our match up recommendations are:
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Max Homa | Top 20 | 4 | 4/1 | |
| Luke List | Top 20 | 3 | 7/2 | |
| Jhonattan Vegas | Top 20 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| Cameron Young | Top 20 | 1.5 | 9/1 | |
| Trey Mullinax | Top 20 | 1.5 | 18/1 |
Luke List may have claimed a maiden PGA Tour title and a ticket to the Masters to boot, but it was not just the 37-year-old American anxiously willing his winning birdie putt into the cup during a play-off with Will Zalatoris at the Farmers Insurance Open on Saturday.
In truth, we were already celebrating at Form Golfer Towers – despite a few palpitations along the way, with some 15 or so players in close contention going into the back nine, we ended up after 72 holes guaranteed the winner and second, so things were looking good.
Then, despite a two-hour wait after setting the clubhouse target, List hit the wedge of his life in the play-off at Torrey Pines – so close that even he couldn’t miss the following putt – and the 80-1 shot turned a tidy profit into a spectacular one.
Zalatoris, who started the tournament at 25-1 and missed a birdie chance of his own on the final hole to win it outright, would have to settle for a second-placed finish that helped contribute to a 190% ROI this week and 161.4 points profit from an 85-point stake.
Both players were simply superb tee-to-green and could have distanced themselves from the field earlier but, as highlighted in our preview, have had issues with their putting. List in particular was able to address those problems, gaining a remarkable four strokes putting on the opening day to set the platform for his first PGA Tour victory at the 206th attempt.
They are clearly two supremely talented guys but will need to be punted sparingly and on courses where their tee-to-green prowess gives them a real advantage over the field.
Elsewhere, there were a couple of frustrating close calls.
A weak finish from Marc Leishman, a player previously boasting impressive course form and an each-way pick at 33-1, narrowly cost him a placed finish while Cameron Young ended in a five-way tie for 20th, diluting the 9-1 winner that had looked like landing for much of the final round.
But it would be greedy to have expected every close call to go our way and we woke up this morning trying, and failing, to fight off the sort of satisfied smugness that comes with knowing you have played an absolute blinder – things don’t often go that well, so we should enjoy it when they do.
Weeks like this also reaffirm our belief that analysing and utilising the data in the correct way can provide great value, something we will continue to strive to do with confidence.
One slightly disappointing market, however, was this week’s match-ups – especially given the success in this area in previous weeks – with only two of the six landing.
This is a relatively new area for us and, while we are still learning, remain confident that they should form a key part of our value strategy. We will be making a small tweak in analysis approach here, which we expect to pay dividends.
In conclusion, it is as good a week as we have had so far in testing and takes our total profit banked during the test period to more than 230 points.