Honda Classic 2023

Outrights

Despite having been well backed already this week, Adam Svensson (3pts each way, 30/1, 8 places) is the player I’m most keen to have in our staking plan.  He managed a top 10 finish last season in this despite the second worst putting stats of anyone who made the cut and wouldn’t have been far off the lead with anything like his normal level of performance on the greens.  A top 10 at Riviera showed that his game should be well up to a test like this and the fact that he now has his maiden tour win under his belt adds to confidence that if he finds himself in the mix come Sunday, he’s able to close it out (which can’t be said for many in this field).  In short, there’s a whole lot to like about his prospects.

I’m normally a little wary of expecting DP Tour players to carry their form over when making PGA Tour appearances, but in the case of Min Woo Lee (3pts each way, 25/1, 8 places), I’m happy to make an exception.  I think he’s one of the most gifted players on the DP Tour, he has positive SG numbers in all categories (even adjusted for the weaker fields he routinely competes against) and his approach play is arguably his biggest strength, so PGA National could set up really nicely for him.  Just inside the world’s top 50 at the moment, that makes him one of the highest ranked players in this week’s field and I think he has the potential to go a good bit higher.

Robby Shelton (2pts each way, 40/1, 10 places) is another whose key asset is iron play and three top 20s from his last 5 starts point towards his recent form being right up there with all bar the bigger names at the front of the market.  We’ve highlighted him before as someone worth keeping an eye on and while I don’t see him as quite ready to break through in the bigger events, this ought to be a week he’ll be targeting as a genuine opportunity to bank a decent cheque and some FedEx points.  He finished T11 here in 2020 and is surely a better player now.

At a huge price, Satoshi Kodaira (1pt each way, 250/1, 8 places) has to make some appeal to small stakes.  Although it’s hard to be confident that his decent Japan Tour form (top 5 in his most recent two outings) will translate to the States, he has made two consecutive cuts from three since hopping across the water and the price (as short as 100/1 in places) means we have to have a small speculative interest in him.  The clincher is that he’s top 10 in this field on strokes gained approach in the last 3 months.  Not a likely winner, but definitely a touch of value with 50/1 for a top 8 finish.

Finally, although my initial reaction was that his price was too short, we’ll add Chris Kirk (2.5pts each way, 25/1, 8 places) to the staking plan.  As I took a look at how that price could be justified, it’s apparent that he has plenty in his favour.  A top 10 in this event last year, topping the field on total strokes gained in the last 3 months and a couple of top 5 finishes in the recent past mean that arguably his credentials to go well in this are as good as anyone in the field.  It would have been nice to get a slightly bigger price, and he doesn’t immediately spring to mind as the winner, but I think I’d be kicking myself if he won and we weren’t on him as we’d be looking back saying that all the signs were there.

Others that were given serious consideration include Jhonattan Vegas, whose tee-to-green stats leap off the page, but his putting of late has been pretty horrible and with that in mind his price looks a touch short.  Also Davis Riley, whose recent form has meant that any kind of return to what we know he’s capable of would make his price look huge.  Sepp Straka clearly has a liking for PGA National, but just hasn’t shown enough form of late to make me want to get involved at the price.