John Deere Classic 2023
Overview
Dates: July 6, 2023 to July 9, 2023
Location: Illinois, USA
Course: TPC Deere Run
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7289 yards
Prize Purse: $7100000
It’s a case of the calm in between two storms, as the gap between the final two majors of the season sees many of the big names staying at home and one of the weaker fields of the season teeing it up for the John Deere Classic. Cameron Young is the highest ranked player in the field and will be hoping that this is an opportunity to turn around a season that’s in danger of becoming a disappointment after such a promising showing in the US Masters just a few months back.
Preview
For the third week in a row we look to be set for another birdie-fest, with history telling us that scores around the 20-under par mark are required to succeed at TPC Deere Run. At a shade under 7300 yards, distance off the tee is no great advantage and it’s proximity on approach and a hot putter that are likely to be the key attributes. When a hot putter is needed, Denny McCarthy is always one of the first names to spring to mind and given his recent form it’s perhaps no surprise that he heads the market, closely followed by Russell Henley and Cameron Young (despite his well-documented weakness on the greens).
Past winners have included bombers (Bryson DeChambeau) and solid, plodding types (Ryan Moore, Lucas Glover, JT Poston), so there’s perhaps no particular type of player to be wedded to here.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Sepp Straka | 2 | each way | 50/1 | 8 | +5500 |
| Eric Cole | 2.5 | each way | 30/1 | 8 | +3300 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 2.5 | each way | 25/1 | 10 | +3000 |
| Justin Lower | 1.5 | each way | 110/1 | 8 | +12500 |
| Russell Henley | 3 | each way | 16/1 | 8 | +1600 |
Our first pick stands out in terms of the discrepancy between his world ranking and his place in the market, in the shape of Sepp Straka (2pts each way, 50/1, 8 places). As we’ve written before, he can be streaky, but his recent form has been decent enough with three top 40s in his last 5 events a perfectly acceptable return in a field lacking depth. Sitting alongside the likes of Beau Hossler and Doug Ghim in the market, he’s surely a little undervalued at the available price.
Eric Cole (2.5pts each way, 30/1, 8 places) continues in fine form, to the extent that he ranks fourth in this field for total strokes gained over the last three months. Four consecutive top 40s stacks up well and with his driving (the weakest part of his game statistically) unlikely to get too severe a test at Deere Run, he rates a very solid place on the staking plan.
Emiliano Grillo (2.5pts each way, 25/1, 10 places) has a similar profile to Cole, ranking third in the field for total strokes gained recently, with most of his gains coming on approach (also third in the field) and with the putter. We were on him when he picked up his first win in years in the Charles Schwab, and a top 20 in the Travelers shows that his regained form and confidence may continue for a while yet.
Justin Lower (1.5pts each way, 110/1, 8 places) showed with a top 10 in the Travelers that given a shorter test and a premium on putting, he can contend – with a similar challenge awaiting this week, three-figure prices look worthy of an interest. Comfortably in the top 10 in this field for strokes gained putting recently, a small uptick in approach play could see him convert enough birdie opportunities to get involved at a big price.
Finally, it’s hard to leave Russell Henley (3pts each way, 16/1, 8 places) out given four consecutive top 20s, including the US Open. Leading the field in strokes gained approach, solid on the greens, and one of a small number in this field who have shown they can win, he’s an obvious pick, but available at a price we’re happy to get involved with.
It was tempting to get involved with Ludwig Aberg again, but with the commentators having spent much of the Travelers talking him up, he’s perhaps a little short in the market now as people cotton on to his prodigious talent. He’ll be more appealing in a stronger field at a venue that will allow his incredible ability off the tee to shine. Taylor Moore looks to be coming back to form and could go well again, while we could easily have given Christiaan Bezuidenhout another chance at a course that should suit despite having been slightly disappointing when we were on him last week.