Mexico Open at Vidanta 2023
Overview
Dates: April 27, 2023 to April 30, 2023
Location: Mexico
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7456 yards
Prize Purse: $7700000
Masters champion Jon Rahm returns to action to defend his Mexico Open title from a year ago. While Rahm’s victory last year was his long trip to the winner’s circle, the Spaniard has already won four times this season. In a field with few big names, he is set to start a warm favourite and looks to have an obvious chance of a repeat win.
Results
The Mexico Open largely went with the form book, although not quite in the order we were hoping for, as Tony Finau held off Jon Rahm to take the title. With Brandon Wu taking third, remarkably the top 3 was identical to the previous year’s result, albeit in a slightly different order.
Ultimately this put the seal on what was a disappointing April for us. Of our picks, Rahm came up just short, Stephan Jaeger performed creditably for a top 20 finish, while Gary Woodland was a little disappointing as he really should have been able to get into serious contention against this quality of field. But we didn’t stake too much on the event, so not too much damage done.
Next up is the Wells Fargo, the next elevated status event, and then just a couple of weeks after that it’s the second major of the season. The big tournaments are coming thick and fast!
Preview
Last year’s 1-2 Jon Rahm and Tony Finau are undoubtedly the headline acts this week and sit some way ahead of the rest of the field in the market. At 7500 yards and playing a par 71, this course undoubtedly suits longer hitters, which is borne out by the data from the 2022 edition, where every player who finished in the top 12 gained strokes on the field off the tee. Although we only have one year of course data to go on, this pattern looks to be clear enough to make it the focus of our analysis.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Jon Rahm | 8 | Win | 11/4 | 1 | +260 |
| Gary Woodland | 2.5 | Each way | 22/1 | 8 | +2500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | 1.5 | Each way | 40/1 | 8 | +4500 |
We’ll be keeping it pretty simple this week. Jon Rahm (8pts win, 11/4) ticks all the boxes, coming in full of confidence after his Masters win, defending champion in this event, topping the SG charts by some way against this field and with his long straight driving a particular asset on this course. Yes the price is short enough, but he really ought to be putting this calibre of opposition away without too many problems. He ranks in the top 5 in the field for driving, putting and approach play in the last six months and I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t cement his place at the top of the world rankings with another win here. Sometimes it doesn’t pay to try to be too clever and this feels like one of those weeks.
We’ll supplement our chunky win bet on Rahm with a couple at longer prices whose driving should stand them in good stead. First is Gary Woodland (2.5pts each way, 22/1, 8 places), who is one of only two players in the field that sits above Rahm for SG off the tee, has made four cuts in a row and his top 15 at Augusta stands out in this much weaker company. He can be fancied to go close without perhaps quite being good enough to be a real threat to Rahm.
Stephan Jaeger (1.5pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) is the other one who makes some appeal on the basis of his long game being in decent shape and there being enough in his recent form to think that he’s more than capable of a high finish here. Four cuts made in his last five is pretty fair, including a top 15 in the Honda and a top 30 in the Valspar. Either of those performances could easily translate to a top 10 at the very least here.
On balance it’s not a tournament we’re going to over-analyse. A simple strategy of expecting class to prevail, with a couple of smaller interests in solid place options feels like the right way to play it.
The Mexico Open largely went with the form book, although not quite in the order we were hoping for, as Tony Finau held off Jon Rahm to take the title. With Brandon Wu taking third, remarkably the top 3 was identical to the previous year’s result, albeit in a slightly different order.
Ultimately this put the seal on what was a disappointing April for us. Of our picks, Rahm came up just short, Stephan Jaeger performed creditably for a top 20 finish, while Gary Woodland was a little disappointing as he really should have been able to get into serious contention against this quality of field. But we didn’t stake too much on the event, so not too much damage done.
Next up is the Wells Fargo, the next elevated status event, and then just a couple of weeks after that it’s the second major of the season. The big tournaments are coming thick and fast!