Phoenix Open 2022
Overview
Dates: February 10, 2022 to February 13, 2022
Location: Arazona, USA
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7261 yards
Prize Purse: $8200000
After a short break in beautiful Arizona, we head back to California for the final swing of the West Coast before heading down to the swamp (Florida). This week we have a field of 119 players, including all top 10 golfers. Max Homa placed 14th last week at the WM Phoenix Open as he looks to defend his title this week at Genesis.
Riviera Country Club is 7,322 Yards, Par 71, played on POA Annua greens. The course has 58 sand bunkers, 0 water hazards, and a 2″ Kikuyu rough. In the last few years, we’ve had Max Homa win it at -12 (2021), Adam Scott at -11 (2020), and J.B. Holmes at -14. As you can tell, this isn’t going to be just a regular birdie fest event. The fairways here are not very wide, and you’ll see a lot of tree-lined holes. Scrambling and around the green play is also a key area I will be looking at because of the small greens and the frequent misses that are inevitable. Greens in Regulation here is averaged out to 10/18, so it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Results
Well, we couldn’t expect to keep winning every week. Frustrated is the word that most sums up the mood in the FormGolfer offices after the fun and games at Scottsdale. Four of our eight outright selections finished in the top 20 (and another in the top 35), yet none achieved a return for us. I could write a few thousand words on the things that went against us, but frankly it wouldn’t change anything. We’ve had some key moments go in our favour recently so let’s not dwell on it and move on.
When you have a big fat zero in the return column on the outrights, it becomes a case of damage limitation and happily we secured a couple of decent results with Keith Mitchell’s top 20 at 4/1 and Scheffler’s missed 5-footer on the 72nd hole resulting in a play-off (tipped at 3/1).
On balance, I can live with a loss on the week of 23.7 points (-27% ROI), although had Hovland not somehow contrived to take a triple-bogey 8 towards the end of his second round, he would likely have finished above Spieth and got us very close to level for the tournament.
Taking the positives, even the near misses show that we are on the right lines in identifying value. If we keep getting players at 40/1 and upwards into contention at the weekends, we are very likely to be making good profits in the long run.
Preview
With three big-priced winners from the first five PGA Tour events of 2022, it feels almost impossible to believe that things can get any better for our outright tipping at the moment (213% ROI). We’re showing a scarcely-believable profit of over 300 points and an ROI of 65% across all our selections in just seven tournaments since we entered our final phase of testing and we’re looking forward to getting our first subscribers on board in the coming weeks.
Although it was great to bag another winner, and we’ll take them in whatever format we can find them, pro-ams are certainly not my idea of good viewing, so it’s good to see normality resume with the Phoenix Open.
Clearly it’s not realistic to expect results to stay this good in the long run, but this week’s tournament gives us another good opportunity. The key stat in shaping our selections this week is that TPC Scottsdale is one of the courses where previous form is hugely important. There is no particular type of player that’s favoured, but a liking for the course is top of the list in what we’re looking for. So we’ll be paying close attention to previous Phoenix results, as well as similar layouts with a strong correlation. Winning scores are consistently in the 15-20 under par range, so a warm putter is likely to be needed. Looking back over the last ten years, the champions have tended to be bigger names, although plenty of less favoured players have contended.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 4 | ew | 18/1 | 8 | |
| Max Homa | 2 | ew | 75/1 | 5 | |
| Seamus Power | 2 | ew | 50/1 | 8 | |
| Bubba Watson | 1.5 | ew | 40/1 | 8 | |
| Nate Lashley | 1 | ew | 150/1 | 8 | |
| Brendan Steele | 1 | ew | 175/1 | 8 | |
| Keith Mitchell | 1.5 | ew | 66/1 | 8 | |
| Carlos Ortiz | 1.5 | ew | 125/1 | 8 |
The usual suspects feature at the head of the market, and of those it’s Hideki Matsuyama (4pts win, 18/1) who makes easily the most appeal. He’s becoming something of an enigma – equally as capable of mediocrity as he is of great things, so the question is how to pin down which version will turn up in any given week. If his putting is average or better, he can contend. With two wins and two top 20s in this event in the last 6 years, it’s worth taking a chance that this will be a week where we get ‘good Hideki’, in which case he can certainly serve it up to the likes of Rahm, JT and Cantlay.
Max Homa (2pts ew, 75/1, 5 places) is another who isn’t exactly a model of consistency, and while he could bomb out completely, this looks like one of the weeks where we can expect a good likelihood of a big showing. He has some form both here and at PGA West, which ought to translate.
Considering the consistency of Seamus Power’s (2pts ew, 50/1, 8 places) recent form, it’s a little surprising to see him available at 50/1 this week. He doesn’t have the course form we’d be looking for (in fact he was dreadful on his only appearance here), but I’m less worried about that with someone who has made such giant strides in his game in the last 12 months. He showed last week that he’s capable of going really low, which is likely to be needed in at least one round here, and although his weekend performance at the AT&T was a little surprising, and he may be a little bruised by the experience, I’m happy to forgive him that given the price on offer.
Bubba Watson (1.5pt ew, 40/1, 8 places) had his heart well and truly broken on the 72nd green by one of the craziest winning putts you will ever see (and a worthy celebration) from Harold Varner. If you haven’t seen it, make sure you look it up! That, and the long trip back from Saudi give rise to a certain amount of caution, but his record in this tournament is too good to ignore and with a bit of recent form in the bank there’s enough in his price to make it worth the risk.
With Nate Lashley (1pt ew, 150/1, 8 places) having given us a good run at a big-priced top 20 finish last week, it’s very interesting to note that his record at this event is much better than you might expect. I can’t take him off the staking plan this week for that reason alone, although his price is perhaps a little tighter than I was hoping for – worth noting that one of our competitors has also picked up on his chances this week.
Brendan Steele (1pt ew, 175/1, 8 places) has as much experience of the course as just about anyone in the field and plenty of it has been positive. Two recent missed cuts wouldn’t fill you with confidence but a T2 as recently as the Zozo is more encouraging and a return to a favourite venue might be just the ticket. Carlos Ortiz (1.5 pts ew, 125/1, 8 places) is perhaps a less obvious course form play, but T4 last year makes him interesting.
We’ll have one final roll of the dice with Keith Mitchell (1.5pt ew, 66/1, 8 places) – in this instance not based on course history but just because he’s making a habit of showing up on leaderboards and his price seems a little on the big side in light of a good week at the AT&T.
Plenty of others came close to making the staking plan. Branden Grace in particular, but also Andrew Putnam and KH Lee – any of whom could be justified as a small each way investment. Closer to the front of the market, it’s hard to know what to make of Seamus Power’s poor weekend, but he was so good on days 1 and 2 (and in recent weeks in general) that I’m inclined to forgive him; his price is more than fair. Hovland’s recent form can’t be ignored and I’d also be very interested in Daniel Berger but for having taken last week off with a back injury – perhaps worth keeping a close eye on in round 1 with a view to an in-play opportunity.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| List to beat Horschel (TNB) | 10 | 10/11 | |
| Matsuyama to beat Spieth | 8 | 8/11 | |
| Thomas to beat Rahm (TNB) | 6 | 5/4 | |
| Hovland to beat Spieth (TNB) | 10 | 4/7 | |
| List to beat Molinari (TNB) | 10 | 4/7 |
A good week for Spieth did the damage on our match ups last week as we were against him with two of our five selections. But only a small (5-point) loss on the week. We’ll take the risk of making the same mistake again with a couple of our selections this week!
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Seamus Power | Top 20 | 5 | 2/1 | |
| Keith Mitchell | Top 20 | 4 | 4/1 | |
| Carlos Ortiz | Top 20 | 3 | 11/2 | |
| KH Lee | Top 20 | 2 | 17/4 | |
| Play Off | To Decide Winner | 4 | 3/1 |
Well, we couldn’t expect to keep winning every week. Frustrated is the word that most sums up the mood in the FormGolfer offices after the fun and games at Scottsdale. Four of our eight outright selections finished in the top 20 (and another in the top 35), yet none achieved a return for us. I could write a few thousand words on the things that went against us, but frankly it wouldn’t change anything. We’ve had some key moments go in our favour recently so let’s not dwell on it and move on.
When you have a big fat zero in the return column on the outrights, it becomes a case of damage limitation and happily we secured a couple of decent results with Keith Mitchell’s top 20 at 4/1 and Scheffler’s missed 5-footer on the 72nd hole resulting in a play-off (tipped at 3/1).
On balance, I can live with a loss on the week of 23.7 points (-27% ROI), although had Hovland not somehow contrived to take a triple-bogey 8 towards the end of his second round, he would likely have finished above Spieth and got us very close to level for the tournament.
Taking the positives, even the near misses show that we are on the right lines in identifying value. If we keep getting players at 40/1 and upwards into contention at the weekends, we are very likely to be making good profits in the long run.