RBC Canadian Open 2022
Overview
Dates: June 9, 2022 to June 12, 2022
Location: Toronto, Canada
Course: St George's Golf and Country Club
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7014 yards
Prize Purse: $8700000
The RBC Canadian Open returns to the PGA Tour schedule after two years of cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. FexEx Cup leader and world no. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines the field with Rory McIlroy returning to defend his title from 2019.
Results
What an appetiser that was for the main event this week. A feast of top-class golf over the weekend, with several big names going toe-to-toe and slugging it out, with Rory McIlroy ultimately emerging victorious. Justin Rose put in the round of a lifetime, coming from nowhere to fire himself up the leaderboard with a final round 60 that could, and arguably should have been at least a shot or two better. It was a pleasure to watch and although we weren’t on Rory, we secured another profitable week with headline selection Sam Burns comfortably making the places and Chris Kirk not far behind in 7th. It was a shame that Brendon Todd came up a couple short, but with three of our four selections in the top 15, it was a fair week considering the lack of course form to use in our analysis.
Already the next major is upon us, and we go into the US Open in good form and hopeful of our third winning major week of the season so far. It’s great to see so many big names going in to the event on a high with recent wins in the bag, so it’s shaping up to be a cracking watch.
Preview
After the high of Billy Horschel’s victory, it feels like a good week to ease off, with the Canadian Open looking like a tricky puzzle to solve and the US Open just a week away. After a couple of years where this event was cancelled due to Covid, it returns to St. George’s Golf and Country Club, which has not hosted a PGA Tour event since 2010. Whilst it would seem like the data from that event is a logical place to start, the course has undergone substantial changes since then, so in reality there is little-to-no worthwhile course form to make use of.
It appears to be reasonably generous from the tee and not overly long at 7000 yards (par 70). However, the rough looks set to be fairly penal and the greens quick, in order to help the field prepare for the challenge at Brookline that awaits next week.
On balance I’m recommending that we keep stakes low and look for players whose long game is tidy rather than explosive, but have a good enough touch with the putter to deal with greens that could be a bit feisty.
It may be remiss of us not to give at least a passing mention to the LIV series, which starts this week. I’m all for a bit of innovation and time will tell whether or not this will offer any kind of shake-up to pro golf. Suffice to say it makes no appeal as a punting medium, with many of the players overtly just being there to cash a (huge, and ethically questionable) cheque, a deeply uninspiring field, a lack of course form and virtually no way of telling who will be making any meaningful effort to win. We’ll stay focused on the PGA Tour unless and until it stops being the best and most interesting tour in professional golf.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Sam Burns | 4 | each way | 16/1 | 8 | +1600 |
| Adam Hadwin | 2 | each way | 33/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| Brendon Todd | 2 | each way | 60/1 | 8 | +8000 |
| Chris Kirk | 2 | each way | 40/1 | 8 | +5000 |
In truth as I was looking down the list for this event, it was really difficult to find a great many names that stood out as plausible winners. Given that the top four in the market (Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Smith) make next to no appeal at the prices, almost by a process of default we are left with Sam Burns (4pts ew, 16/1, 8 places). We identified Burns earlier this year as a potential top 5 player, and his recent victory in the Charles Schwab Challenge, seeing off the seemingly invincible Scheffler, no less, moved him even closer to that goal (currently sitting 9th). Clearly in top form and importantly with a superb touch on the greens, he can be fancied to go close again at the very least. Those immediately below him in the market (Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and Corey Conners), none of whom has anything like his level of winning form, make far less appeal and he rates the most confident pick of the week.
It’s very tempting to include at least one Canadian in the staking plan given the importance they will place on their national open; rather than plump for the obvious in Corey Conners, we’ll include Adam Hadwin (2pts ew, 33/1, 8 places), whose price is significantly bigger and whose recent form stacks up pretty nicely. Off-the-tee has been the (slightly) weaker part of his game, but that relates to a lack of distance rather than accuracy, which really shouldn’t be such an issue here.
Brendon Todd (2 pts ew, 60/1, 8 places) has a similar profile to Hadwin in that a lack of distance can be a hindrance, but his putting is often exceptional (sixth on tour year-to-date), he’s posted some decent finishes recently, and his price is most definitely interesting.
Chris Kirk (2pts ew, 40/1, 8 places) looks a touch overpriced based on recent form, with four cuts made in his last six events, including three top 25s in that period. Putting can be a hindrance, but it’s inconsistency that’s the issue – he’s very capable of getting hot, and if he does then he could easily get into contention in a field that isn’t particularly deep.
We’ll keep to just four selections this week as for reasons outlined above it’s not a tournament I’m keen to throw a lot of ammunition at, and I can’t see any mileage in scraping the barrel purely to spread our interest. If forced to throw in another, it’d probably be Tony Finau, whose gradual trend of improvement continued in his last outing, although he’s starting to look a little under-priced as a result.
What an appetiser that was for the main event this week. A feast of top-class golf over the weekend, with several big names going toe-to-toe and slugging it out, with Rory McIlroy ultimately emerging victorious. Justin Rose put in the round of a lifetime, coming from nowhere to fire himself up the leaderboard with a final round 60 that could, and arguably should have been at least a shot or two better. It was a pleasure to watch and although we weren’t on Rory, we secured another profitable week with headline selection Sam Burns comfortably making the places and Chris Kirk not far behind in 7th. It was a shame that Brendon Todd came up a couple short, but with three of our four selections in the top 15, it was a fair week considering the lack of course form to use in our analysis.
Already the next major is upon us, and we go into the US Open in good form and hopeful of our third winning major week of the season so far. It’s great to see so many big names going in to the event on a high with recent wins in the bag, so it’s shaping up to be a cracking watch.