RBC Heritage 2022
Overview
Dates: April 14, 2022 to April 17, 2022
Location: South Carolina, USA
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7099 yards
Prize Purse: $8000000
The RBC Heritage, known for much of its history as the Heritage Classic or simply the Heritage, is a PGA Tour event in South Carolina, first played 53 years ago in 1969. It is currently played in mid-April, the week after The Masters in Augusta, Georgia.
The venue for its entire existence has been the Harbour Town Golf Links at the Sea Pines Resort on Hilton Head Island. The Harbour Town course, which frequently appears on several “Best Courses” lists, was designed by famed golf course architect Pete Dye, with assistance from Jack Nicklaus. In 1972, the first two rounds were played on both the Harbour Town Golf Links and the Ocean course at Sea Pines, with the final two rounds at Harbour Town.
Originally played in late November, it moved to mid-September in 1973, March in 1974, and April in 1983. The inaugural champion in 1969 was forty-year-old Arnold Palmer, his first win in over a year. Course co-designer Nicklaus won in 1975, two weeks before his fifth Masters win. Davis Love III leads with five victories in the event, Hale Irwin and Stewart Cink have three, while seven others have won twice.
Results
The crossbar is still shaking after Sunday’s final round of the RBC Heritage. While disappointing to have two of our big-priced selections just one shot out of the playoff, the leaderboard was so congested that a single shot here and there was the difference between getting very little out of the event and a nice profit. Happily it turned out to be the latter, with Straka and Kuchar (our two strongest selections at 90/1 and 50/1 respectively) finishing in a tie for third. Having hit the lead with a spectacular birdie at 17, Straka really should have made the playoff at least, failing to make par at the last from the middle of the fairway with just a 9 iron in hand. But we also got a break with Kuchar converting his birdie putt on 18 to go from just outside to inside the places.
Although not making the staking plan, we also highlighted Cantlay’s course form and he duly finished second; having suffered a downturn in recent weeks, this may be a confidence booster that signals a return towards the epic form he produced at the back end of last season. We also flagged Cam Smith as a possible to miss the cut, having tipped him for the Masters the previous week, on the basis that while Augusta is a perfect set up for him, Hilton Head is almost the complete opposite.
It’s hard to know what to make of eventual winner Spieth at the moment. At Augusta he was around 16/1 on a course he loves and looked awful; completely out of touch with his own swing. Yet here he was allowed to go off around 45/1, still looked fairly uncomfortable at times, but managed to find a way to get the job done. The fact of the matter is he has bags of class, a ton of guts and can never be completely written off, however badly he appears to be playing, albeit this victory will probably ensure he goes off very short in his next few events.
Overall, for FG followers, a third consecutive week of profits, this time gaining 40 points and a 71% ROI on the event. Our outright selections are performing particularly well, showing a 70% ROI (245 points cumulative profit) since November 2021, when we started monitoring our performance.
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is this week’s event; one of those pairs contests that makes limited appeal for punting, but we’ll take a look and see if we can unearth some value.
Preview
On Sunday night I got talking to some pals in the clubhouse as the final round of the Masters was starting. I’d assumed that most would be looking forward to the action with a nice investment in Cam Smith in their pocket, since he was our most confident each way selection and had been staked accordingly. What surprised me was that several had left him alone in favour of the bigger-priced recommendations we had put forward. To my mind, there are tournaments where chasing a huge return is worthwhile, and others where the best strategy is to focus on the front of the market. The Masters (and in fact most majors nowadays) is undoubtedly an event where there is a high degree of predictability – of the top 9, all were easy to make a case for, either on the basis of current form or course history, and all featured in the top 30 or so in the market. Corey Conners was the lowest ranked player in that top 9 at 31st in the world. Although some of the big names struggled, recent form gave reasons to expect this (as pointed out in our preview), with Smith and Scheffler the most notable exceptions that looked rock solid going into the event. With so many of the top players in the world now having proven themselves capable of competing in and winning majors, it becomes harder to imagine many unfancied winners of golf’s biggest events in the near future.
This week’s event is different. Although the prices at the front of the market are comparable to last week, it’s not hard to imagine a more surprising outcome. It’s interesting to note that in the early exchanges the market leaders have in general been drifting to bigger prices. A week in the pressure-cauldron of a major will inevitably result in a downturn for some the following week as the adrenaline dissipates. Particularly for the elite players, who will have been aiming to peak at Augusta, it’s hard to imagine that they will be anything like as focused for the RBC this week. While those who had a week off last week or are further down the rankings may see this event as an opportunity to bag some much-needed FedEx and ranking points while the top players are regrouping for the major season that comes thick and fast from here on out.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that we like a huge-priced winner as much as anyone, but it’s a case of being focused and selective. Value can be found at either end of the market and there are clues to be found to help identify where to look. With that in mind, let’s get on with our selections for the RBC Heritage…
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Sepp Straka | 2 | EW | 90/1 | 8 | |
| Harry Higgs | 1.5 | EW | 150/1 | 8 | |
| JJ Spaun | 1.5 | EW | 90/1 | 8 | |
| Matt Kuchar | 2 | EW | 50/1 | 8 | |
| Denny McCarthy | 1.5 | EW | 100/1 | 8 | |
| Kevin Na | 1.5 | EW | 45/1 | 8 |
The obvious starting point for this event is Patrick Cantlay, whose course form will doubtless make him a fancy for many, with three top tens at another track that sees plenty of repeat contenders. This is reflected in his price however, and his form has undoubtedly dipped (21st in this field in his last 20 rounds, versus third if you go back a further 6 months or so), so we’ll look elsewhere for value.
First up this week is Sepp Straka (2pts ew, 90/1, 8 places), still riding the crest of a wave after winning the Honda a few weeks back; a victory that’s been somewhat overshadowed by the exceptional recent performances of a certain Mr Scheffler. Straka has quietly backed up his win with some solid showings and a top 30 at Augusta on debut was highly creditable, suggesting that far from being a one-off, his Honda win may just have set a path towards bigger things for the Austrian.
Another player who put in a great debut showing at the Masters was Harry Higgs (1.5pts ew, 150/1, 8 places), the likeable American showing that his T4 in the US PGA was no fluke by making the top 20. He has the potential to pop up now and then at big prices, so very happy to include him at the odds on offer (as big as 250/1 available at the time of writing if you’re happy to take fewer places).
It was upsetting to miss out on JJ Spaun (1.5pts ew, 90/1, 8 places) when he won the Texas Open at a huge price, having felt for a while that he was trending towards a big performance. Like Straka, there’s enough in his form to feel that his win was part of an improving pattern rather than a fluke, and again I feel he’s still slightly undervalued in the market, especially given that he shows up well on driving accuracy – a key factor at Harbour Town.
Matt Kuchar (2pts ew, 50/1, 8 places) is well into the twilight of his career, but has still shown glimpses this year of form that can allow him to contend in the lower-profile events. Having not qualified for the Masters, that week off may have done him some good; the most encouraging factor in his stats is some very strong strokes gained numbers in this event over a significant number of appearances, giving confidence that this is a tournament he will be targeting for a bit week.
Denny McCarthy (1.5pts ew, 100/1, 8 places) has a fairly similar SG profile to Kuchar, having been losing a little ground off the tee, which may be less of an issue on a course that places more of a premium on accuracy. Having included him in our recommendations on a couple of occasions recently, we’ll give him another chance to go well in one of these weaker fields.
Our final selection is Kevin Na (1.5pts ew, 45/1, 8 places), whose top 20 finish (not for the first time at Augusta) was all the more impressive because he was one of few players in the top 20 to have conceded ground on the greens. Have established himself well inside the top 50 in the world, I don’t think he’s gained the respect he deserves, which can work to our advantage when trying to find value. He needs playing on the right courses and this is one where he’s done consistently well over a number of appearances.
I’m happy to leave the front of the market well alone this week for the reasons outlined above, but if pushed for a selection, Russ Henley at around 33/1 would fit the profile quite nicely at a course that rewards accuracy off the tee and requires a warm enough putter to get to at least 10 under (and quite possibly a few more). I’ll go out on a limb, risk looking very foolish, and say that while Cam Smith was a perfect fit for Augusta, this week’s event suits markedly less and off the back of the final round disappointment there, he could even be considered for missing the cut here at 7/2, although I’m not quite bold enough to include this in the final staking plan.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Kuchar to beat Poulter (TNB) | 10 | 4/5 (Betfair) | |
| Im to beat Spieth (TNB) | 8 | 5/6 (Betfair) |
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Russell Henley | Top 20 | 5 | 7/4 | |
| Kevin Na | Top 20 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| Matt Kuchar | Top 20 | 3 | 14/5 | |
| Sepp Straka | Top 20 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| Denny McCarthy | Top 20 | 3 | 4/1 | |
| Harry Higgs | Top 20 | 2 | 8/1 |
Having identified a few players at decent prices in the outrights, it makes sense this week to largely follow that up with some top 20 cover.
The crossbar is still shaking after Sunday’s final round of the RBC Heritage. While disappointing to have two of our big-priced selections just one shot out of the playoff, the leaderboard was so congested that a single shot here and there was the difference between getting very little out of the event and a nice profit. Happily it turned out to be the latter, with Straka and Kuchar (our two strongest selections at 90/1 and 50/1 respectively) finishing in a tie for third. Having hit the lead with a spectacular birdie at 17, Straka really should have made the playoff at least, failing to make par at the last from the middle of the fairway with just a 9 iron in hand. But we also got a break with Kuchar converting his birdie putt on 18 to go from just outside to inside the places.
Although not making the staking plan, we also highlighted Cantlay’s course form and he duly finished second; having suffered a downturn in recent weeks, this may be a confidence booster that signals a return towards the epic form he produced at the back end of last season. We also flagged Cam Smith as a possible to miss the cut, having tipped him for the Masters the previous week, on the basis that while Augusta is a perfect set up for him, Hilton Head is almost the complete opposite.
It’s hard to know what to make of eventual winner Spieth at the moment. At Augusta he was around 16/1 on a course he loves and looked awful; completely out of touch with his own swing. Yet here he was allowed to go off around 45/1, still looked fairly uncomfortable at times, but managed to find a way to get the job done. The fact of the matter is he has bags of class, a ton of guts and can never be completely written off, however badly he appears to be playing, albeit this victory will probably ensure he goes off very short in his next few events.
Overall, for FG followers, a third consecutive week of profits, this time gaining 40 points and a 71% ROI on the event. Our outright selections are performing particularly well, showing a 70% ROI (245 points cumulative profit) since November 2021, when we started monitoring our performance.
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is this week’s event; one of those pairs contests that makes limited appeal for punting, but we’ll take a look and see if we can unearth some value.