Sony Open In Hawaii 2022
Sony Open 2022 Overview
Dates: January 10, 2022 to January 16, 2022
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Course: Waialae Country Club Oahu, Hawaii
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7,125 yards (6,515 m)
Prize Purse: $7500000
Each January the Sony Open in Hawaii attracts 144 of the world’s greatest golf professionals to the Waialae Country Club on the island of Oahu. The event is the largest charity golf event in Hawaii. With a significant start of generating $256,000 for 43 charities in 1999, tournament charity proceeds is now $1.2 million annually benefiting more than 100 not-for-profit organizations each year and has raised nearly $22 million total for over 350 local not-for-profits.
Global impact of the event reaches over 560 million homes in some 216 countries via multiple national and international broadcast networks. One of the most international events on the PGA TOUR schedule, the Sony Open showcases international golf talent and camaraderie against the backdrop of Hawaii’s natural beauty to the world.
In 2020, Sony Open in Hawaii was honored by the State of Hawaii with a Green Business award for the 5th consecutive year in recognition of the tournament’s energy efficiency efforts and sustainable business practices. The annual week-long Sony Open tournament serves as a stunning backdrop for PGA TOUR competition and also a reminder about the importance of keeping Hawaii beautiful.
Sony Open 2022 Retrospective
Hot on the heels of a week where it all came together – a week where it certainly didn’t. The performance of Seamus Power was the highlight, comfortably landing the top 8 although never really close enough to threaten the win. Some close calls, Buckley in particular coming agonisingly close to landing a very nice each way payout (although landing a Top 20 at 7/1 was some consolation). But things generally didn’t go our way – Hoge bogeying his final three holes to narrowly miss the cut was particularly galling as that left several of our tips high and dry by the half way stage. And a big week for Kisner certainly didn’t help when it came to our match bets, which we lost on for the week for the first time since we introduced them late last year.
These weeks will happen. Our mission is to deliver value and profit in the long term. Despite a poor week, we remain ahead of our targets across all three market categories. The important thing in weeks like this is to be clear whether you’ve had some bad breaks, or made some bad decisions that you need to learn from. On reflection, I feel it was a bit of both on this occasion.
So, what did we learn?
- Waialaie is most definitely a ‘course fit’ track. In fact it’s up there with Augusta from that perspective, so we’ll be looking to apply this point at the first major of the season. For match betting at courses with strong course fit correlation, we need to be careful of opposing apparently out-of-form players who stack up well on the key characteristics (Kisner, Cink, Kizzire being three cases in point from last week).
- Hayden Buckley looks worth keeping on side – of all the new arrivals to the PGA Tour, he perhaps seems the most likely to break through this season.
- As called out in our preview, Russell Henley remains one to be wary of from a win perspective and his tendency to struggle as the pressure increases is becoming a definite pattern.
- The love affair with Talor Gooch needs to be brought into focus. Clearly bursting with talent, and someone I still feel is under-rated, tight tracks do not look to be the best fit, so we’ll look to play him on a more selective basis from now on.
- It’s really hard to stay awake until 3am. I’m relieved that the Hawaii swing is behind us!
Sony Open 2022 Preview
A great start to 2022 with Cameron Smith (the owner of the worst hair on tour) standing up well to a 36 hole bombardment of everything Jon Rahm had to throw at him to get over the line by a single stroke. As predicted, a hot putter was the key, with Cam picking up 6.5 shots on the field in that department alone. With Cantlay placing and 3 of our 5 match ups successful (and one tied for returned stakes), we achieved a profit of 71 points on the week (ROI of 134%). Let’s hope for more of the same.
The tour stays in Hawaii this week, although the course is somewhat different. Waialae is a shorter track and it’s notable that SG off the tee in particular is a poor predictor of success. Driving accuracy is of more importance than distance with fairways harder to hit and rough more penal than was the case at Kapalua. An interesting trend that’s been picked up in many previews is the tendency for the winner of the Sony Open to have competed at the ToC, although to a large extent that’s to be expected given the strength of the ToC field and the fact that they have already had four rounds to get their competition game in order. I’m not inclined to read as much into that trend as others have done.
I’m happy to leave the front of the market alone this week. Yes, Smith looked awesome last week, but it’s hard to go back to back, the challenge is very different and he’s under half the price we got last week in a field of only 38 players. A win for Sungjae or Hideki wouldn’t surprise in light of decent warm ups at the ToC, but we’re looking a little further down the field to smaller stakes for some value in the hope of some big performances at big prices.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Tom Hoge | 2 | EW | 80/1 | 8 | |
| Talor Gooch | 2 | EW | 35/1 | 8 | |
| Joel Dahmen | 1 | EW | 60/1 | 8 | |
| Seamus Power | 1.5 | EW | 45/1 | 8 | |
| Hayden Buckley | 1 | EW | 100/1 | 10 | |
| JJ Spaun | 1 | EW | 125/1 | 8 |
This week’s headliner is Tom Hoge (2pts ew, 80/1, 8 places). Hoge did us a favour with a T4 finish at the RSM and his stats suggest he’s underrated going in here. He missed the cut on the number last year and in 2019, but a T12 in 2020 and 3rd in 2018 gives plenty of hope that the course suits. To my mind, the best value on offer this week, and we’re also playing him in top 20 and match ups.
I can’t jump off Talor Gooch (2pts ew, 35/1, 8 places) while he’s consistently racking up such strong performances. Although a little way off the money last week it was another solid showing and I just feel he deserves to be closer to others who are ahead of him in the market. I certainly make him under 7/1 to make the places, and am happy to take 13/8 for another top 20 finish. Similar comments apply to Joel Dahmen (1pt ew, 60/1, 8 places) – again on a lovely consistent run of form, and though not to the same level as Gooch this is compensated for in his price.
Seamus Power (1.5pts ew, 45/1, 8 places) has also been trending well and in a relatively weak field on a course that should suit, this might be the week where he pushes on into the upper reaches of the leaderboard.
We’ll finish our outright selections with a couple of more speculative options in Hayden Buckley (1pt ew, 100/1, 10 places) and JJ Spaun (1pt ew, 125/1, 8 places), both of whom have recent form that entitles them to a little more respect than their odds imply. We’ll give ourselves some cover on the top 20 markets for those two as well.
Russell Henley was hard to leave out on a course that should suit well, but I’m just inclined to think that he flatters to deceive with his consistency (particularly on courses that suit) and perhaps isn’t going to be someone who converts often enough to justify his cramped odds. Billy Horschel also came close to making the staking plan, but six players is probably enough for us to be going to war with.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Gooch to beat Kisner | 15 | 4/5 | |
| Hoge to beat Kizzire (TNB) | 12 | EVS | |
| Gooch to beat English (TNB) | 7 | 9/10 | |
| Na to beat Kisner | 7 | 5/6 | |
| Dahmen to beat Todd (TNB) | 7 | 5/6 | |
| Lee to beat Cink (TNB) | 5 | 5/6 | |
| McNealy to beat Van Rooyen (TNB) | 5 | 8/11 | |
| Henley to beat English (TNB) | 5 | 4/5 |
Some very strong recommendations emerged from our match up data this week. Were this mid-season rather than so early in the year I’d be even more confident, but we’ll still wade in to these with the aggressive staking plan that the data suggests we should go with.
Our match up recommendations are:
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Talor Gooch | Top 20 | 4 | 13/8 | |
| Joel Dahmen | Top 20 | 3 | 11/4 | |
| Tom Hoge | Top 20 | 3 | 33/10 | |
| Hayden Buckley | Top 20 | 2 | 7/1 | |
| JJ Spaun | Top 20 | 1 | 6/1 | |
| Hudson Swafford | Top 20 | 1 | 9/2 | |
| Jim Knous | Top 40 | 1 | 17/4 | |
| Michael Gligic | Top 40 | 1 | 17/4 |
Hot on the heels of a week where it all came together – a week where it certainly didn’t. The performance of Seamus Power was the highlight, comfortably landing the top 8 although never really close enough to threaten the win. Some close calls, Buckley in particular coming agonisingly close to landing a very nice each way payout (although landing a Top 20 at 7/1 was some consolation). But things generally didn’t go our way – Hoge bogeying his final three holes to narrowly miss the cut was particularly galling as that left several of our tips high and dry by the half way stage. And a big week for Kisner certainly didn’t help when it came to our match bets, which we lost on for the week for the first time since we introduced them late last year.
These weeks will happen. Our mission is to deliver value and profit in the long term. Despite a poor week, we remain ahead of our targets across all three market categories. The important thing in weeks like this is to be clear whether you’ve had some bad breaks, or made some bad decisions that you need to learn from. On reflection, I feel it was a bit of both on this occasion.
So, what did we learn?
- Waialaie is most definitely a ‘course fit’ track. In fact it’s up there with Augusta from that perspective, so we’ll be looking to apply this point at the first major of the season. For match betting at courses with strong course fit correlation, we need to be careful of opposing apparently out-of-form players who stack up well on the key characteristics (Kisner, Cink, Kizzire being three cases in point from last week).
- Hayden Buckley looks worth keeping on side – of all the new arrivals to the PGA Tour, he perhaps seems the most likely to break through this season.
- As called out in our preview, Russell Henley remains one to be wary of from a win perspective and his tendency to struggle as the pressure increases is becoming a definite pattern.
- The love affair with Talor Gooch needs to be brought into focus. Clearly bursting with talent, and someone I still feel is under-rated, tight tracks do not look to be the best fit, so we’ll look to play him on a more selective basis from now on.
- It’s really hard to stay awake until 3am. I’m relieved that the Hawaii swing is behind us!