The American Express 2023
Overview
Dates: January 19, 2023 to January 22, 2023
Location: California, USA
Course: PGA West Stadium Course
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7187 yards
Prize Purse: $8000000
Following the traditional start to the year in Hawaii, it’s on to start the West Coast swing with the American Express, where ten of the top 20 in the world are due to take part.
Results
Unfortunately a slow start was the common factor in all our selections – to a man they gave themselves too much to do after the first couple of rounds. Although both Finau and Hadwin did their best to surge through the field over the weekend and had realistic prospects on Sunday of making the places, a few untimely missed putts in round 4 made all the difference and saw us with nothing to show for our efforts.
Aaron Baddeley put in a reasonable show for a 300/1 outsider, but Tom Hoge in particular was a disappointment, taking an age to get going before making a little progress to finish in the top 40. It could and perhaps should have been a much better week for him. Ben Taylor and KH Lee both missed the cut (KH right on the number), although neither should be given up on just yet and could still be worth following in the weeks ahead.
It’s not been the January we were hoping for so far, with Ben Taylor’s placed finish the undoubted highlight and several close calls being the difference between being in profit and the small loss we find ourselves faced with.
Onwards to Torrey Pines, the scene of one of our best ever weeks in 2022, where we put up both the winner Luke List and Will Zalatoris, who was defeated in the playoff. Let’s hope for more of the same this year.
Preview
It’s the American Express this week, which is slightly different to the usual fare, with four rounds played over three courses and a 54-hole cut. Low scoring is usually the norm and 20-plus under par is typically required to take home the trophy. The list of previous winners is notable for including some less-heralded names, so perhaps it’s a good week to be looking beyond the obvious as we hunt for the value.
The statistical data on offer to us is patchy, with Shotlink data only available from the Stadium Course, played once over the first three days and again on Sunday by those who make the cut. Strokes gained on approach appears to be the key metric for that course, but it’s going to be hard to get to a winning score here without a warm putter, so we’ll be keeping an eye on that stat as well.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Tony Finau | 3 | each way | 14/1 | 8 | +1500 |
| Tom Hoge | 2.5 | each way | 40/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| KH Lee | 2 | each way | 66/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Adam Hadwin | 2 | each way | 60/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Ben Taylor | 11.5 | each way | 200/1 | 8 | +20000 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 1 | each way | 300/1 | 8 | +30000 |
I’m happy enough to leave the front three in the market alone this week on value grounds, albeit Rahm and Cantlay have shown up well here previously. While I was tempted by Will Zalatoris after a very encouraging return at the Tournament of Champions, it’s interesting that his approach play appears to be the weakest part of his game on the numbers at the moment, so we’ll keep a watching brief on him for now. The most solid option from the front of the market looks to be Tony Finau (3pts each way, 14/1, 8 places), and we’ll play him accordingly. Nothing I saw in his return at the ToC changed my opinion that he’s set for another big season, his exemplary long game suggests he’ll give himself plenty of opportunities and the clincher is that his putting seems to have improved beyond all recognition. I’d have him as second favourite here behind Rahm at closer to the 10/1 mark.
With one solid candidate on our side, we’ll be more creative with the rest of our selections. Although a reasonably big price, Tom Hoge (2.5pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) has very solid course (second last year) and recent form on his side. If he’s going to add to his maiden win last season, this looks to me like one of his best opportunities to do so and with both his approach game and putting in good nick of late (recent SG approach as good as anyone in this field), I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make the top 20 and I see him as a perfectly plausible winner of this event.
Delving further down the list, I still think there’s value in KH Lee (2pts each way, 66/1, 8 places) – at double the price we got involved at in the Sony. He’s gradually turning into a more consistent performer and it’s always good to have someone on your side who has proven he can get it done on the Sunday. Another whose stats stack up well this week.
Adam Hadwin (2pts each way, 60/1, 8 places) has already seen some market interest since the prices were put up just a few hours ago, and I can see why, given the importance of tidy approach play and putting this week. He stands out on both those measures and with two top 10s from his last four starts definitely merits inclusion on the staking plan.
Having landed our biggest priced ever each way payout with Ben Taylor (1.5pts each way, 200/1, 8 places), it’s not hard to make the case to include him again at an even bigger price. While it’s entirely possible that his experience on Sunday will have taken something out of him, it certainly reinforced our view that his game is in rude health right now and perhaps he’ll be taking confidence rather than fatigue into this week. At the price, and considering he owes us nothing, we can certainly afford to take that chance.
Given the propensity of the AmEx to throw up curve balls, I want to include one more big outsider in our staking plan this week, and Aaron Baddeley (1pt each way, 300/1, 8 places). Recognised as a big talent and one of the finest putters on the planet earlier in his career, his star faded somewhat over several years, but every now and then he’s shown himself to be capable of popping up on leaderboards. Four top 40s from his last 5 starts probably has him in the best form he’s been in for some time and he quietly snuck into the top 10 at the Sony without ever really threatening to win. With relatively short courses in play this week and a premium on control and touch, there has to be at least a small chance we can squeeze a big week out of him when he’s carrying a little of our money.
In a week where chances can be given to more of the field than usual, it’s almost pointless running through a list of other contenders. I’d be surprised if there’s not at least a couple of unusual names in the top 10 come Sunday and hopefully we’ve managed to find at least one of them.
Unfortunately a slow start was the common factor in all our selections – to a man they gave themselves too much to do after the first couple of rounds. Although both Finau and Hadwin did their best to surge through the field over the weekend and had realistic prospects on Sunday of making the places, a few untimely missed putts in round 4 made all the difference and saw us with nothing to show for our efforts.
Aaron Baddeley put in a reasonable show for a 300/1 outsider, but Tom Hoge in particular was a disappointment, taking an age to get going before making a little progress to finish in the top 40. It could and perhaps should have been a much better week for him. Ben Taylor and KH Lee both missed the cut (KH right on the number), although neither should be given up on just yet and could still be worth following in the weeks ahead.
It’s not been the January we were hoping for so far, with Ben Taylor’s placed finish the undoubted highlight and several close calls being the difference between being in profit and the small loss we find ourselves faced with.
Onwards to Torrey Pines, the scene of one of our best ever weeks in 2022, where we put up both the winner Luke List and Will Zalatoris, who was defeated in the playoff. Let’s hope for more of the same this year.