The Memorial Tournament 2022
Overview
Dates: June 2, 2022 to June 5, 2022
Location: Ohio, USA
Course: Muirfield Village
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7533 yards
Prize Purse: $12000000
Reigning FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay returns to defend his title at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, while seven of the top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are all set to tee it up at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
Results
The roar that greeted Billy Horschel’s 52 foot eagle putt on 15 yesterday could be heard not only round Ohio, but also in the vicinity of the Form Golfer offices, as it all but secured a tasty 60/1 winner for us. Having had a few frustrating close calls in recent weeks, it was a timely boost and lifted the cumulative profit on our outright selections to over 300 points in just under six months, with a return on investment over 60% in that period. It was a deserved victory for Billy Ho, who took the field apart with a superb display of tee-to-green golf, coupled with some gutsy putting when it was most needed. Our other selections were ultimately a little disappointing, although Cameron Young (in particular), Shane Lowry and Keegan Bradley all got themselves into contention for top 8 finishes before falling away on Sunday. Thankfully the one player who kept it together was the one we really wanted to.
I’m always encouraged when we find a player who wasn’t being widely talked about as a likely winner and goes on to perform well. If we are to find value, it’s not just about looking at the raw data (which very easily tells you who is in good form), but also requires you to look beyond the obvious to dig out players who may outperform market expectations.
If the last couple of weeks have shown anything, it’s that closing out is hard. Ryan Fox last week on the DP Tour didn’t do a great deal wrong, yet saw a three-shot lead on the 18th tee disappear. Even the world number one Scottie Scheffler couldn’t find the birdie he needed to secure the win at Colonial, while Horschel saw his 5-shot overnight lead whittled down to 2 before finding the clutch putts he needed to get over the line. It’s one of the reasons golf makes for such compelling viewing (compare it to the end of a football match when a team is protecting a lead), but it also rarely makes for a stress-free punting experience.
The Canadian Open is next on the agenda, set against the background of the LIV Golf controversy. It’s being held at a course that’s not been used on the tour in over a decade, so some deeper investigation than usual may be required to unearth more value for FG followers.
Preview
As always a strong field has been assembled for the Memorial, with most of the world’s top ten keen to take part in the event hosted by Jack Nicklaus. Muirfield Village is a course where all aspects of your tee-to-green game need to be in fine working order. Fairways are generous enough, although wayward tee shots will be punished by penal rough. Greens are on the small side, so approach play will be important, as will a strong short game to tidy up the inevitable misses. Weaker putters have shown they can contend in this event, so if there’s one part of the game given less importance, that’ll be it. Given that it’s a little different to some of the more benign resort courses used on tour, it’s not surprising that course form has stacked up over the years and we’d definitely like to have a few players on our side with plenty of positive course experience in the bag.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Shane Lowry | 4 | ew | 25/1 | 8 | +2500 |
| Cameron Young | 3 | ew | 33/1 | 8 | +4000 |
| Matt Kuchar | 2.5 | ew | 50/1 | 10 | +8000 |
| Seamus Power | 2.5 | ew | 55/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Keegan Bradley | 2.5 | ew | 50/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Billy Horschel | 2 | ew | 60/1 | 8 | +6600 |
Shane Lowry (4 pts ew, 25/1, 8 places) is a player who I’ve often felt has been underpriced relative to his results, often going off in the top 10 in the market, but without enough wins on his CV to justify that billing. However he’s undoubtedly one of the finest ball-strikers and with a premium on touch around the greens at Muirfield Village, this might just be the week to catch him. He’s ranking second in SG overall in this field on both a 3 and 6-month timeframe, and encouragingly his putting stats (generally his weak point) have been trending well into positive territory in recent events. I wouldn’t often see him as a value option, but this week is an exception.
Regular readers will know that Cameron Young (3 pts ew, 33/1, 8 places) is a player we rate very highly. We were on him when he came so close at the US PGA recently and it can only be a short time before his breakthrough win. The bigger prices on him to win events have now dried up, so it’ll become harder to make a value case for him, but tough venues where solid long game is the key will be perfect for him to shine. The fact he took a week off to get over the PGA disappointment is a big positive for me – I wouldn’t have been keen to go in again the week after, but I sense he’ll be ready to go again now.
As we’ve written before, Matt Kuchar (2.5pts ew, 50/1, 10 places) has been enjoying a mini-renaissance in the last few months, and ranking second in SG at Muirfield Village makes him an easy inclusion at a juicy price, since he still seems to be overlooked. A bit of course knowledge can easily make up for a lack of firepower, while on and around the greens in the last 6 months there are few who can boast the stats that Kooch has been racking up.
My sense is that Seamus Power (2.5pts ew, 55/1, 8 places) is gradually getting back to his best form. When he hits form he’s capable of outstanding golf (his second round in the AT&T at Pebble Beach was something else – I’ve rarely seen a display of iron play like it) and a top 10 in the PGA recently which went slightly unnoticed suggests he may be about to get hot.
Keegan Bradley (2.5pts ew, 50/1, 8 places) was undone at the PGA by a poor draw and an uncharacteristically poor week on the greens, but wasn’t disgraced towards the lower end of the top 50. That performance has meant there is some value left in his price this week and his all-round game in the run up to the PGA had been in great shape, so I’m very happy to have another go at the dreadfully slow, twitchy American.
Our final selection is Billy Horschel (2pts ew, 60/1, 8 places), whose recent form has not been that great, but it also hasn’t been that bad (still comfortably in positive SG territory). He has a couple of top 20s in this event in his last three appearances, which makes him of definite interest. Most importantly his price just seems too big for a player of his pedigree, particularly on a course he seems to enjoy. He wouldn’t be an obvious selection, but the obvious rarely offers value.
There were several that were particularly difficult to leave out of the staking plan. Patrick Cantlay is the obvious one given that his course record stands out against everyone else in the field, with two wins on his CV (albeit last year’s result may well have been different but for Jon Rahm’s unfortunate dose of Covid). He was well found in the market though and I’d like to have seen slightly better recent form before getting involved around the 16/1 mark. Matt Fitzpatrick should thrive on this course and his form was there for all to see at the US PGA – I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off his chances. Davis Riley falls into the Cameron Young category of “too good not to win something very soon” – but was one of many players who threw away a winning opportunity last week and I feel it can be hard to follow up on a week like that. And the most appealing option at a really big price was Anirban Lahiri, whose form has been showing signs of returning recently and also has some good course form to his name.
Other Recommendations
With a reduced field this week, finding value in the other markets has been challenging, so rather than desperately trying to find some, we’ve instead focused exclusively on the outright market and increased stakes a little.
The roar that greeted Billy Horschel’s 52 foot eagle putt on 15 yesterday could be heard not only round Ohio, but also in the vicinity of the Form Golfer offices, as it all but secured a tasty 60/1 winner for us. Having had a few frustrating close calls in recent weeks, it was a timely boost and lifted the cumulative profit on our outright selections to over 300 points in just under six months, with a return on investment over 60% in that period. It was a deserved victory for Billy Ho, who took the field apart with a superb display of tee-to-green golf, coupled with some gutsy putting when it was most needed. Our other selections were ultimately a little disappointing, although Cameron Young (in particular), Shane Lowry and Keegan Bradley all got themselves into contention for top 8 finishes before falling away on Sunday. Thankfully the one player who kept it together was the one we really wanted to.
I’m always encouraged when we find a player who wasn’t being widely talked about as a likely winner and goes on to perform well. If we are to find value, it’s not just about looking at the raw data (which very easily tells you who is in good form), but also requires you to look beyond the obvious to dig out players who may outperform market expectations.
If the last couple of weeks have shown anything, it’s that closing out is hard. Ryan Fox last week on the DP Tour didn’t do a great deal wrong, yet saw a three-shot lead on the 18th tee disappear. Even the world number one Scottie Scheffler couldn’t find the birdie he needed to secure the win at Colonial, while Horschel saw his 5-shot overnight lead whittled down to 2 before finding the clutch putts he needed to get over the line. It’s one of the reasons golf makes for such compelling viewing (compare it to the end of a football match when a team is protecting a lead), but it also rarely makes for a stress-free punting experience.
The Canadian Open is next on the agenda, set against the background of the LIV Golf controversy. It’s being held at a course that’s not been used on the tour in over a decade, so some deeper investigation than usual may be required to unearth more value for FG followers.