The Open Championship 2022

Outrights

The market has now settled on Rory McIlroy as a clear market leader, and it’s not hard to see why.  His wedge game and putting have undoubtedly improved recently, he’s been racking up top 10 finishes at a spectacular rate, he’s a previous Open winner and it’d be hard to argue that he’s not due another major win.  But at around the 10/1 mark I can’t advise getting involved.  Doubts remain about his ability to put together four good rounds and I worry that despite an apparently strong recent record in majors, he hasn’t been in genuine contention on the Sunday in ages and I worry about his ability to hole the putts he needs to unless he has put distance between himself and the field. 

Sometimes the answer is just so obvious that it slaps you in the face and you can’t ignore what’s right in front of you.  Xander Schauffele (5 pts each way, 14/1, 12 places) has suddenly burst back to life and has taken over from Scheffler as the hottest player on the planet right now, adding to recent successes in the Travelers and Adare Manor pro-am with another victory in the Scottish Open.  Not only has his form gone off the charts, when looking at a combination all of the indicators for St. Andrews success that I mentioned above, he comes out top of my rankings.  You could argue that he’s too obvious and unlikely to be a value, or that he may be fatigued having been through the stresses of contention in two events in the last week.  But to my mind he should probably be favourite on current form and the price is certainly enough to get me very interested, particularly with so many places being paid.  If he won, I’d be kicking myself for not having recommended him. 

Our second solid selection from the front of the market is Jordan Spieth (4pts each way, 16/1, 12 places).  Bar his putting, which has taken an alarming downturn, he ticks ever box we’re looking for here.  He scraps harder than anyone and with even a slight upturn in fortunes on the greens (and we all know he can get very hot), he simply has to contend.  Longer off the tee than he’s given credit for, it’s encouraging to see that his ‘right miss’ percentage is very low, and his Open record is as good as anyone in this field. 

The general consensus is that those who have defected to LIV Golf have in essence abandoned their pursuit of glory in favour of playing as infrequently as possible and turning up and trousering huge cheques.  Often there is value to be found by challenging the general consensus and in Brooks Koepka (2.5 pts each way, 40/1, 12 places), we may have someone who can do just that.  There are several reasons to want Brooks onside here.  Even when he was playing the regular tour, he showed limited interest in regular events and would focus on peaking for the majors (which he did with remarkable regularity).  He has always wanted to be known as a big-league player, and clearly valued major wins as the primary measure of success.  So my suspicion is that his move to LIV may be less impactful on performance in majors for him than it is for many others.  I’m actually inclined to think that he may be even more motivated than usual by the prospect of sticking two fingers up at those who have been giving him abuse over his defection.  Furthermore, his Open record is superb, he hits it a mile, and has strong showings at Augusta on his record.  He’s a riskier play for sure, but his price more than compensates for the element of risk.   

Tony Finau (2.5pts each way, 50/1, 12 places) is always someone I consider for majors and more than many around him in the market, he hits most of the trends we’re looking for.  As we’ve said before, he seems to be gradually recovering form, his overall Open record is right up there with the best in this field and encouragingly his putting (usually his biggest weakness) has been trending upwards of late.  The price is the clincher, since we’re getting 10/1 on him placing and his career major record (around 40% top 10s) suggests that’s not a true reflection of his chances. 

We’ll complete our picks with a small interest in another LIV defector in the shape of Patrick Reed (1.5pts each way, 100/1, 12 places), who would surely become the most unpopular winner in living (LIVing?) memory were he to succeed.  The logic here is very similar to Koepka, although even more so than Brooks, Reed appears to revel in the role of pantomime villain.  He will never get a better chance to spoil a party than at the 150th Open against the backdrop of his move to the LIV Tour.  His game appears to be in decent nick with a third place finish in the recent Portland event and although one of the shorter hitters in the field, he meets some of our ideal criteria with a Masters win and several high finishes in previous Opens.  If, like me, the thought of him winning makes you feel slightly queasy, consider it a form of insurance against the unthinkable happening. 

Of the other market leaders, Scheffler and Rahm don’t look to me to be quite as in control of their games as they have been at their imperious best.  If judged purely on volume of swearing, Rahm’s game is certainly not where he would want it right now.  Fitzpatrick could easily go very close to following up his spectacular win at the US Open, but I’m put off by his price, which is no more than fair.  Justin Thomas’ misses off the tee tend to be to the right and his showing at the Scottish Open gives little cause for encouragement; the same can be said for Will Zalatoris, who will surely be picking up one of these before long, but I sense it may not be this week.  Shane Lowry, as ever, looks underpriced to me, as does Collin Morikawa in current form (although let’s not forget he had a very quiet week learning to play links in the Scottish Open before winning last year).   

Tiger Woods has to get a mention.  His appearance certainly adds something to the drama of the even and it would be wonderful if he was in contention come Sunday.  And he certainly has the know-how to plot his way round St. Andrews, regardless of how well he’s swinging.  But having seen him looking like a broken man in his most recent appearances, he looks absurdly short in the market to me (probably because people will back him regardless of price and form).  Personally I struggle to see him making the weekend, although if anyone is going to pull out a miracle, he’s the man.  

Others who were seriously considered for inclusion in the staking plan are: 

Max Homa, whose recent form and a solid performance in the Scottish Open, coupled with a price that doesn’t do justice to his ability, make him very interesting.   

Having recommended Corey Conners through the majors this year, I was quite surprised to see such a big price available for him this week.  But his Scottish Open performance coupled with his continuing frailties on the greens and an easier test than is usually the case at majors mean I’m happy to overlook him this time.   

Tyrell Hatton showed signs of life in the Scottish after some fairly ordinary recent form, and his record in the Dunhill certainly makes him of some interest.   

As a former Masters champion, Hideki Matsuyama was very much in my thinking until a horrible display in the Scottish put me off.  But he’s shown before that he can fluctuate between dreadful and superb, so a quick recovery in form wouldn’t entirely surprise.   

Final mention goes to three UK golfers who could put up a good showing in Robert McIntyre, Jordan Smith and Sam Horsfield, who all have the game to threaten the top 20 at least and are fair prices to go well.   

Other Recommendations

Finau and Reed both look to be fair value in the top 20 market, as does Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who we were on last week in the Scottish Open and rallied after a slow start to finish inside the top 20 – this week’s field is not a huge amount stronger.  Bezuidenhout can also go well for top South African honours, where Oosthuizen appears a weak favourite on current form despite his St. Andrews pedigree.  Joohyung Kim is very interesting for top Asian, having finished second in that market in the US Open and performed very creditably at the Renaissance Club.  The top English player market is interesting with four places on offer and a host of out-of-form contenders.  I was torn between Justin Rose and Jordan Smith for this one, but will side with the former on the basis that he’s the more likely of the two to put four decent rounds together and hold up under the weekend pressure.