The Players Championship 2022
Overview
Dates: March 10, 2022 to March 13, 2022
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA
Course: TPC at Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7189
Prize Purse: $20000000
The Players Championship: Justin Thomas looks to defend title at TPC Sawgrass as injured Bryson DeChambeau misses out
Justin Thomas will look to become the first player to successfully defend their title at the Players Championship on the 40th anniversary of the event being held at TPC Sawgrass.
The American edged out England’s Lee Westwood to win by one stroke in 2021 at a tournament often dubbed golf’s unofficial fifth major.
Thomas will be among 144 of the world’s best players to tee off on Thursday at the tough Pete and Alice Dye-designed track in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
However, world number 12 Bryson DeChambeau has withdrawn from the championship because of injury, having not played since 29 January because of hip and wrist problems.
Rickie Fowler, winner in 2015, has also failed to make the field for the first time since 2009 while those who are qualified but will not be present include Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.
Woods is one of only five players to win the tournament twice at Sawgrass, with Fred Couples, Davis Love III, Steve Elkington and Hal Sutton the others, albeit no one has done it back-to-back there.
The Players Stadium Course is set up to give fans a prime viewing experience, enabling them to see multiple holes at once and not having to walk long distances between others – it made the return of supporters at this venue last year extra special for winner Thomas.
“That was our first true event in a long time with a lot of fans,” he told Sky Sports. “You could feel the energy and the atmosphere and I loved that, so that’s obviously an amazing memory for me.
“I think there’s a lot of reasons why it’s tough to defend. It’s just really hard to win a golf tournament and it’s obviously hard to win back-to-back at a place like this.
“Sawgrass to me is so special and unique. It truly is, I think, one of the best-designed courses I’ve ever played and it just requires so many different shots.
“Strategy-wise you can play it differently a little bit, but for the most part everyone is hitting to about the same places and having around the same clubs into the greens.
“The par-fives are great in terms of their risk-reward. We don’t have very many par-72 courses with four par-fives anymore, and you can make four just as easily as you can six on any one of them.
“A lot of holes require you to shape it one way off the tee and another way into the green, and I just truly think this golf course brings out every aspect of your game in order for you to come out on top at the end of the week.”
Sawgrass is also notoriously tricky, with Ben Crenshaw once calling the Dye masterpiece “Star Wars golf, designed by Darth Vader”.
Former PGA Tour commissioner Deane Berman bought the land for TPC Sawgrass for just $1 in 1979 but was confronted by a swampy, wooded area roamed by alligators, wild boar and deadly snakes – it is estimated 70 rattlesnakes were killed during construction.
Sawgrass is famous for its iconic 17th hole and the idea for an island green famously came from Dye’s wife Alice, after the designer found himself a hole short on his plans – it also helps set up an intimidating finish, sandwiched by the par-five 16th and a testing 18th.
“I wanted the finish to be iconic,” former commissioner Beman said about the final three holes.
Having been moved to March from its traditional May date in 2019, the Players now forms part of an exciting run up to the first major of the season, the Masters at Augusta National next month.
The Players arrives on the back of another challenging test for golf’s finest, though Scottie Scheffler should come in full of confidence having tamed Bay Hill at The Arnold Palmer Invitational last weekend to card his second win in three starts this season.
“When you get on such difficult golf courses like this, you just have to kind of keep your head down and know that mistakes are going to come, you’re going to get bad breaks, you’re going to hit really good shots that turn out really bad,” he said.
“Really all this week I did a good job of kind of fighting back, really just kind of battling the golf course the whole time.”
Results
There’s no getting away from the fact that the Players was not the start we were hoping for. It was a strange tournament all round – the weather as predicted played a big part and unfortunately it conspired against many of our selections, with those who had late/early tee times disadvantaged by several shots against the other half of the draw. Despite having looked closely at the forecast, unfortunately there was no way of knowing this at the outset as it was impossible to predict with any confidence when play would stop and start. Anirban Lahiri, the eventual runner up, came into the tournament ranked twelfth from bottom in the entire field for strokes gained in the last six months, which perhaps says it all.
A common theme through the week was that our selections played themselves into contention at various stages only to promptly play themselves out of contention soon after, usually with a visit to one of the many hazards at Sawgrass. This theme continued right through to the 71st hole, with Justin Thomas having just eagled 16 to give himself a chance of a placed finish, but then sticking his very next shot in the water at the infamous 17th. Brooks Koepka and Talor Gooch got into contention early on but fell victim to the worst of the weather on Saturday. Corey Conners looked like placing for much of the week before fading. And Molinari was as high as 5th deep into round 3 before dropping back.
It was a hugely volatile tournament and one which Cam Smith’s final round fully deserved to win. But one in which many pre-tournament predictions were made to look fairly foolish as some big names struggled.
The one bright spot for us was our match up selections, where we landed 3 of 5 selections for an 11 point profit which partly offset losses elsewhere.
Next up the Valspar. It remains to be seen how many from the Players field pull out after a gruelling 5 days, but hopefully the elements will play less of a factor and results will be somewhat more predictable.
Preview
This is it! Form Golfer’s first ever live tournament preview. We’re genuinely excited about sharing our insight and analysis and providing our followers with some enjoyable and profitable golf betting opportunities. We’ve been trialling our previews and predictions in the background since late 2021 and have been hugely encouraged by the results we’ve seen, with over 100% ROI on our outright tournament selections – let’s hope this continues now the service is live and available to sign up to.
Our job, in simple terms, is to identify value. In other words, the players who have a better chance of winning (or placing) than their odds imply. If we miss a tournament winner because the odds on offer weren’t attractive enough, so be it; we are focused on achieving long term profit, which we can only do if we pinpoint value on a week-to-week basis. For each selection we will recommend the price (taking into account the number of places being paid on each way bets) that we feel offers the best value; there may be bigger odds available but with fewer places being paid out. We suggest having several accounts open so you can shop around for the best price on any of our recommendations.
The Players is a suitably prestigious tournament for us to start with. Well established now as golf’s “fifth major”, it’s played on an iconic course in TPC Sawgrass, with one of the strongest fields assembled all year. As a big event, there are some very competitive each way terms on offer, which makes it an attractive proposition from an each way perspective.
Our starting point for analysis will always be the nature of the course in play. Sawgrass has proven over the years to be a course that you need to learn to play (and in some cases, learn to love). With danger lurking at every turn, accuracy off the tee and a strong approach game are usually rewarded. More than most weeks, we will be looking to solid course form in shaping our selections.
The weather could be a significant factor this week, with conditions set to be challenging for much of the tournament. Driving distance may become more of a factor and putting less so with the course likely to be softened up by the rain. It’s harder to predict the effect of the draw, as there may be stoppages in play, and a dose of luck in avoiding the worst of the weather may have a bearing on the results come Sunday.
Good luck, whether you follow all, some or none of our selections, and please remember to bet within your means; while we all want to make some tasty profits, above all we want our subscribers’ golf punting to be an enjoyable experience.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Justin Thomas | 3 | ew | 12/1 | 11 | |
| Adam Scott | 2 | ew | 50/1 | 9 | |
| Brooks Koepka | 2 | ew | 33/1 | 11 | |
| Corey Conners | 1.5 | ew | 55/1 | 8 | |
| Talor Gooch | 1 | ew | 66/1 | 8 |
Our first selection is Justin Thomas (3 pts each way, 12/1, 11 places). The record of defending champions in the Players is dreadful, but I can’t see any logical reason why that trend should stand up in the long term. JT loves the place and that counts for an awful lot at a venue that divides opinion among tour pros. Whilst his driving accuracy is slightly below the levels I’d ideally like to see, he ticks so many boxes that he simply has to be played. I tend to think that missing the bruising examination at Bay Hill last weekend to prepare for this may just work in his favour, as there will be plenty in the field this week who were varying degrees of traumatised by that experience.
Adam Scott (2pts each way, 50/1, 9 places) is another former winner of this event and has all the experience in the world when it comes to navigating this unique course. Having played Sawgrass over 60 times in competition in his career, he’s gained an astonishing 2 strokes per round on average. Whilst his putting can certainly be an issue at times, the weather this week could just play to his long game strengths. Ticking along nicely in recent weeks without getting over the line, the Aussie with arguably the prettiest swing in the game is just the sort of name I’d expect to feature on the leaderboard come Sunday and he appeals as a more likely winner then plenty around him in the market.
Brooks Koepka (2pts each way, 33/1, 11 places) certainly comes with some risks attached, and a blowout is entirely possible. But he has shown over the years that if he’s going to turn up and win, it’s as likely to be in a huge tournament on a tough course as anywhere. On his day he is every bit the equal of those at the head of the market; granted his going days are less frequent than the likes of Rahm and co, but 33/1 about a player of his talent just looks too big to me.
Corey Conners (1.5pts each way, 55/1, 8 places) is someone who I’ve felt has often been over-rated in the market, but there’s no denying he’s a high quality player. He has a little less experience of Sawgrass than I’d like to see, but he’s already shown it’s a course he can navigate and if he can build on that a little, it would be no surprise to see him in the mix. With strong accuracy and approach stats, this could just be a test that suits his game perfectly.
Talor Gooch (1pt each way, 66/1, 8 places) is our final selection. He’s a player who has shown himself capable of streaks of high class form and the case for backing him is based on a solid top 5 in the Players last year (despite losing ground to the field off the tee) and a very encouraging performance at Bay Hill last week. A bad front nine on Sunday put paid to his chances in that event but he recovered well for a top 10 finish. He’s still in the top 5 in the FedEx standings and 66/1 seems very fair.
The list of potential winners is a long one; as you’d expect the field is simply stacked with talent. Others that came particularly close to being selected include:
Jon Rahm, whose tee to green game has been off the charts in recent weeks, is very appealing even at the favourite at 12/1, but his putter has been colder than cold for several tournaments. If you haven’t seen the 10-inch putt that he only managed to move an inch last week, get on YouTube! If anyone is going to run away with this event, it’s probably him, but I’d want to see him hole a couple of confidence building putts early on before maybe getting involved in play.
Shane Lowry, who has been trending nicely, would cope as well as anyone if conditions get nasty, and I would happily have included the former Open champ had his price been a little bigger.
Cameron Young appears to be the brightest emerging talent on tour and makes a good bit of appeal at around 100/1. While his breakthrough is likely to come sooner than later, it’s perhaps a bit fanciful to think it’ll come in a tournament as big as this one.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Si Woo Kim to beat Paul Casey (TNB) | 8 | 4/5 (Betfair) | |
| Justin Thomas to beat Jon Rahm (TNB) | 8 | 11/10 (Paddy Power) | |
| Sungjae Im to beat Jordan Spieth | 7 | 4/5 (Boylesports) | |
| Tyrrell Hatton to beat Sam Burns (TNB) | 5 | EVS (Paddy Power) | |
| Hideki Matsuyama to beat Dustin Johnson | 5 | 4/5 (Boylesports) | |
| Brooks Koepka to beat Dustin Johnson (TNB) | 5 | 11/10 (Paddy Power) |
Match ups are a market where we simply need our chosen player to outperform one other. We look at a variety of metrics to identify where we feel one has a clear edge. If you’re looking for big priced winners, this is not the market for you, but we hope to deliver a small, steady profit stream on these selections. “TNB” means “Tie No Bet”, where stakes are returned in the event that the players are tied. If this is not the case we would lose our stake if they finish tied.
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Adam Scott | Top 20 | 6 | 12/5 | |
| Si Woo Kim | Top 20 | 4 | 3/1 | |
| Chris Kirk | Top 20 | 4 | 7/2 | |
| Mackenzie Hughes | Top 20 | 3 | 11/2 | |
| Francesco Molinari | Top 20 | 2 | 15/2 |
Alongside our main selections, each week we also pick players we feel offer value in other markets. Typically these will be players who are bigger prices in the outright market that are unlikely winners but are likely to outperform expectations; often to finish in the top 20.
There’s no getting away from the fact that the Players was not the start we were hoping for. It was a strange tournament all round – the weather as predicted played a big part and unfortunately it conspired against many of our selections, with those who had late/early tee times disadvantaged by several shots against the other half of the draw. Despite having looked closely at the forecast, unfortunately there was no way of knowing this at the outset as it was impossible to predict with any confidence when play would stop and start. Anirban Lahiri, the eventual runner up, came into the tournament ranked twelfth from bottom in the entire field for strokes gained in the last six months, which perhaps says it all.
A common theme through the week was that our selections played themselves into contention at various stages only to promptly play themselves out of contention soon after, usually with a visit to one of the many hazards at Sawgrass. This theme continued right through to the 71st hole, with Justin Thomas having just eagled 16 to give himself a chance of a placed finish, but then sticking his very next shot in the water at the infamous 17th. Brooks Koepka and Talor Gooch got into contention early on but fell victim to the worst of the weather on Saturday. Corey Conners looked like placing for much of the week before fading. And Molinari was as high as 5th deep into round 3 before dropping back.
It was a hugely volatile tournament and one which Cam Smith’s final round fully deserved to win. But one in which many pre-tournament predictions were made to look fairly foolish as some big names struggled.
The one bright spot for us was our match up selections, where we landed 3 of 5 selections for an 11 point profit which partly offset losses elsewhere.
Next up the Valspar. It remains to be seen how many from the Players field pull out after a gruelling 5 days, but hopefully the elements will play less of a factor and results will be somewhat more predictable.