The Sentry Tournament of Champions 2022
The Sentry Tournament of Champions Overview
Dates: January 6, 2022 to January 9, 2022
Location: Lahaina, Hawaii. USA
Course: Kapalua Resort, (Plantation Course)
Course Par: 73
Course Length: 7,596 yards
Prize Purse: $8200000
The Sentry Tournament of Champions is the calendar-year opening tournament of golf’s PGA Tour season, played in Hawaii on the island of Maui. The tournament was founded in 1953; its field is restricted to golfers who won a tournament on the tour during the previous calendar year.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions Results
An exciting climax for those Form Golfer followers who managed to stay awake until the small hours of Monday morning. Cam Smith holed a brave four-footer on the final hole to win his first (individual) event for a couple of years, in doing so landing our first outright winner of the season at 22/1 and making the biggest contribution to our overall profit of 71 points on the tournament. As predicted, a hot putter was needed to contend, with some outrageous scoring. We highlighted Smith primarily due to his putting stats, and he duly gained 6.5 shots on the field in that department. Those wins were supplemented with Cantlay making some putts himself up the stretch to secure fourth place and a small each way return. Spieth was disappointing and it’ll be a while before I’m recommending him again as this really felt like an opportunity for him to contend. Gooch had another solid week without ever really threatening, but I feel he remains someone to stay on the right side of if he continues to be underestimated in the market.
Matt Jones was not being mentioned anywhere in the run-up to the tournament, but got a nod in our preview, despite not making the final staking plan. He shot the lights out over the weekend for third place, rewarding anyone who had an each way play at around 150/1.
Our match ups delivered another solid profit, with three winners (including our 10 point headline selection – Gooch beating English by a comfortable 6 shots). During round 4 it looked for a while like we could get 5 from 5, but a stellar back 9 for Schauffele meant we had to settle for three winners, one tie (stakes returned) and a defeat. Still very encouraging that match ups will prove to be a reliable and consistent source of profit for us, so we will continue to crunch the numbers hard to find value there.
The tour stays in Hawaii this week, so a few more late nights are in store this weekend!
The Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview
The first event of 2022 is upon us and the traditional curtain raiser featuring all PGA Tour (plus Olympic gold medal) winners from the previous season. Whilst the venue is a familiar one, the biggest challenge lies in guessing who has been practising hard ready for a fast start to the year, and who has been over-indulging in turkey and mince pies. I’d rather see some early season form play out, so we’ll be taking a fairly prudent approach to staking this week.
The track at Kapalua looks on the face of it to be one for the bombers, weighing in at almost 7600 yards. But it’s a par 73, with huge open fairways and plenty of roll, so in fact it’s not SG off the tee that we are looking to this week, as the winner is likely to be someone who can stick it close on approach and hole enough putts on the vast greens to get to a winning score that’s likely to be at least 20 under par.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Jordan Spieth | 3 | EW | 20/1 | 6 | |
| Cameron Smith | 2.5 | EW | 22/1 | 6 | |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2 | EW | 14/1 | 6 | |
| Talor Gooch | 1.5 | EW | 40/1 | 6 |
Our first headline for 2022 is Jordan Spieth (3pts each way, 20/1, 6 places). Now I’ve not been a fan of Jordan from a punting perspective for a while; he is undoubtedly on the way back, but I’ve felt there’s been an over-reaction to this and he’s generally been priced on form dating back several years. That said, I’ve got a feeling this could be the week to catch him – where the occasional erratic drive is unlikely to be severely punished, and his magic touch on and around the greens could help to separate him from the field. It’s worth noting that Augusta has notable correlation to Kapalua, which can only strengthen confidence. In a 39-man field, the 20/1 looks more than fair.
Second up is Cameron Smith (2.5pts each way, 22/1, 6 places). A regular contender, his putting stats in particular over the last 6 months mark him out as someone who could rack up the kind of score to be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Patrick Cantlay (2pts each way, 14/1, 6 places) was the hottest guy on the planet towards the end of last season, leading the next best in this field in overall SG by almost half a shot per round. It’s hard to understand why he’s not closer to the top of the market and if he can carry his exceptional putting into 2022 he’s likely in for another stellar year.
Finally, we’ll include Talor Gooch (1.5pts each way, 40/1, 6 places). 2021 was a fine year for Talor and his position in the market implies a belief that it was a one-off. I’m not convinced and see him as potentially a multiple winner in 2022. Leishman, Finau, Reed, Matsuyama are all shorter and I’m just not sure that’s right.
Sam Burns was hard to leave out, as I still feel there is some upside in him. He’s potentially top 5 in the world by the end of the year. And of those at longer prices, KH Lee (in particular), Joel Dahmen and Matt Jones were most interesting at around 150/1.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Talor Gooch to beat Harris English | 10 | 10/11 | |
| Sam Burns to beat Xander Schauffele | 8 | 11/10 | |
| Joel Dahmen to beat Branden Grace | 6 | 4/5 | |
| Seamus Power to beat Max Homa | 6 | 19/20 | |
| KH Lee to beat Lucas Herbert | 5 | 10/11 |
An interesting point on the match up data we looked at this week was that Spieth came up strongly as someone to oppose based on general SG data. However as outlined above I sense that this could be a good week for him so I’m reluctant to take him on – there will be better weeks for that on courses that don’t suit but he’s still short in the market.
Our match up recommendations are:
Other Recommendations
Good luck and here’s to a profitable 2022!
An exciting climax for those Form Golfer followers who managed to stay awake until the small hours of Monday morning. Cam Smith holed a brave four-footer on the final hole to win his first (individual) event for a couple of years, in doing so landing our first outright winner of the season at 22/1 and making the biggest contribution to our overall profit of 71 points on the tournament. As predicted, a hot putter was needed to contend, with some outrageous scoring. We highlighted Smith primarily due to his putting stats, and he duly gained 6.5 shots on the field in that department. Those wins were supplemented with Cantlay making some putts himself up the stretch to secure fourth place and a small each way return. Spieth was disappointing and it’ll be a while before I’m recommending him again as this really felt like an opportunity for him to contend. Gooch had another solid week without ever really threatening, but I feel he remains someone to stay on the right side of if he continues to be underestimated in the market.
Matt Jones was not being mentioned anywhere in the run-up to the tournament, but got a nod in our preview, despite not making the final staking plan. He shot the lights out over the weekend for third place, rewarding anyone who had an each way play at around 150/1.
Our match ups delivered another solid profit, with three winners (including our 10 point headline selection – Gooch beating English by a comfortable 6 shots). During round 4 it looked for a while like we could get 5 from 5, but a stellar back 9 for Schauffele meant we had to settle for three winners, one tie (stakes returned) and a defeat. Still very encouraging that match ups will prove to be a reliable and consistent source of profit for us, so we will continue to crunch the numbers hard to find value there.
The tour stays in Hawaii this week, so a few more late nights are in store this weekend!