US Masters 2023

Outrights

Our first major pick of 2023 is Justin Thomas (5pts each way, 18/1, 10 places).  Having belatedly bagged his second major title last season, he knows he needs to push on again to fulfil his undoubted talent and keep up with good pal Jordan Spieth, and he has so much in his favour that his price looks too good to pass up.  Starting with his Augusta record, he’s now made seven cuts in a row and shown a gradual improvement trend, with nothing worse than 21st in his last five visits.  Add to that good records in the Genesis (three top 10s) and the Tournament of Champions (two wins and a further three top 5s) and he’s starting to look like someone whose name would sit nicely alongside other Masters winners.  His wedge skills stack up against anyone else in the field and his iron play isn’t far behind the best.  While he does have a slightly worrying tendency to miss a few short putts, as we said earlier this is less of a concern here.  The clincher is the price – I’d have him closer to the 12 or 14/1 mark, so we simply have to get involved. 

We’ll take another from near the front of the market in Xander Schauffele (4pts each way, 22/1, 10 places), who fits the bill in a very similar way to JT.  Prior to a surprising missed cut last year, Xander was building up exactly the sort of Augusta track record that would fit a future champion, with a second and third placed finish from his previous three starts here.  Also bringing relevant, albeit slightly less compelling form from the Genesis (four top 20s) and ToC (a win, a second and a 12th place), his iron play is his absolute strength, sitting only behind Finau and Morikawa in that department in the last six months.  He looks likely to be a repeat contender in the Masters in the years ahead and like JT deserves to be a touch closer to the market leaders in terms of his price. 

We turn to a past champion for our third selection in Hideki Matsuyama (3pts each way, 40/1, 10 places), who having had a fairly quiet year is showing welcome signs of a return to form – a return to Augusta may be just the ticket for someone whose course form is as good as anyone’s.  Six top 20s in and one top 40 in the last seven years tells its own story and makes him far too big a price compared to some of those ahead of him in the market.  The reason for that price is primarily that his strokes gained stats over a longer time period don’t match up to some of the bigger names, but a 5th placed finish at the Players seemed to show he was heading back towards something like his best form.  There is a niggling injury worry following his withdrawal from the matchplay with a neck problem, but he made it through 72 holes and put in a decent showing in Texas, which goes some way to easing that concern.  With five top 10s across the Genesis and ToC, plus of course his win here in 2021, I’m very happy to take the chance that this week sees him continue to trend upwards, in which case he should be tough to keep out of the top 10. 

Although it feels like he’s been around for ever, this will only be Sungjae Im’s (2.5pts each way, 40/1, 10 places) fourth visit to Augusta, but he’s already shown a love for the place with two top 10s recorded in his three previous visits.  Like Hideki, his form has cooled a touch from his peak, but having highlighted course form as the single most important factor to consider, there’s every reason to think he should be in for another big week.  His recent form hasn’t exactly been bad – he’s been making the weekends comfortably enough, and sixth place in his most recent strokeplay outing at the Players isn’t too shabby by any means.  We don’t think he’s quite as strong value as our first three picks, so we’ll keep the stake a little lower, but seeing his name towards the top of the leaderboard over the weekend certainly wouldn’t be a surprise. 

Finally, if there’s to be a genuinely unexpected winner, we feel it’s most likely to come in the form of Si Woo Kim (1.5pts each way, 80/1, 10 places).  Clearly as we get further down the market we’ll be looking at people who match our ideal profile less closely, but Si Woo gets plenty closer than many of those at three figure prices.  Nicely in positive territory for strokes gained both on approach and around the green over the last six months, he’s improved further since the start of 2023, with a string of decent finishes to his name.  Three top 25s at the Masters in the last five years gives a clear indication that he can play this course, and he’s had top tens at Riviera and Kapalua.  While I expect at least 7 of the top 10 spots come Sunday evening to fall the way of bigger names, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to find Si Woo in and amongst them. 

Of the others, we came closest to including Corey Conners, who picked up a win in Texas and could easily be turning into something of an Augusta specialist, but his price has contracted accordingly.  Danny Willett makes a certain amount of appeal as a former champion at a huge price, but is perhaps more of a top 20/top 40 play than a realistic winner.  Cam Young and Jason Day would also look to have solid chances, but Young perhaps needs another year or two’s worth of experience at Augusta to be ready to contend, while Day was very much on my mind until seeing his price – he just looks to be too short given his proximity in price to the likes of JT, Xander, Morikawa and Finau. 

Good luck, however you choose to play, and enjoy four of the finest days of golf we’re likely to see this year.