US PGA Championship 2022
Overview
Dates: May 19, 2022 to May 22, 2022
Location: Oklahoma, USA
Course: Southern Hills Country Club
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7556 yards
Prize Purse: $20000000
The PGA Championship heads to Southern Hills Country Club for the first time since 2007.
FedExCup leader and world No.1 Scottie Scheffler leads the field as he looks for his second major championship victory of the season.
Results
It’s hard not to feel a little disappointed despite another profitable major for followers of Form Golfer. Having been somewhat scuppered by the draw on the first two days, with many of our selections having been handed the unfavoured late/early side, a strong late run from Cameron Young (fast becoming a favourite of ours) gave us genuine hopes of a mega payout.
Young found himself tied for the lead midway through Sunday and when the dust settled we were left to reflect on his clumsy double bogey at 16 (a dreadful bunker shot followed by a woeful three-putt) which on the face of it cost him the title, since he finished one shot outside the playoff. That said, who knows how he would have finished had he faced the pressure of contention on the final couple of holes; just look what happened to Mito Pereira.
Pereira’s woes on the final hole made for difficult viewing – to some extent like a slightly less extreme version of Jean Van De Velde at Carnoustie all those years back. It was a dreadful shame for the Chilean, who would have been a fully deserved winner, and hopefully he can take pride in 71 holes of wonderful golf and push on from here.
It was a compelling tournament (much more so than the Scottie procession in the final round of the Masters) and showed just how much depth of talent there is, with few fancied names towards the top of the leaderboard until the pressure started to tell on the back nine. Ultimately, Justin Thomas was a relatively predictable winner and despite having benefitted from the troubles of others around him, the fact he came through the worst of the draw on the first two days makes his win all the more commendable. Coming from 7 back on the final 9, it was notable that even when he holed a monster birdie putt on 11, his reaction suggested that he still didn’t believe he could win from there. It’s entirely possible that having finally secured his second major, he will pick them up with more regularity now.
Young secured us a profit on our outright selections, and with both him and Tom Hoge gaining top 20 finishes, we were also in credit on our other recommendations. Overall a 25% ROI on the event, although it could easily have been so much better.
Preview
Major weeks always feel a little special. On this occasion, with my other half being away on holiday, going into the week knowing that I have full control of the remote for the duration has put a spring in my step and made me more determined than ever to find some picks that will keep me glued to the TV over the weekend. The second major of the year is upon us and Southern Hills is the venue as the world’s best and a smattering of US club pros tee it up for what used to be “glory’s last shot” at the back end of the season, but has now been brought forward in the schedule to May.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Southern Hills is a monster. 7,556 yards would be a severe test as a par 72, but the fact it’s a par 70 tells you all you need to know about the type of player that’s likely to thrive. With my own “3-wood off the tee” strategy, I think I’d be playing it as a par 90. Long, straight driving and a high proportion of greens in regulation are going to be two key ingredients for success this week and it seems improbable that there will be more than a handful of players under par by Sunday evening. It should make for compelling viewing and hopefully we can identify a few players worth following to make it an even more interesting watch.
At the Masters, we identified that a key trend was for the upper reaches of the leaderboard to be filled with players from the top 30 in the world rankings. Not the most surprising of conclusions, but this turned out to be the case at Augusta, and is an important point to focus on in majors where the tougher setups really help to separate the great from the merely very good. When scores of 20 under or lower are required, it often becomes a question of who gets hot with the putter, and that introduces much more of a random element than when supreme ball striking and the ability to hit a variety of creative shots is necessary. There is definitely a case for the front of the market offering much better value in majors given the competitive prices and each way terms available. So we’ll be following a very similar approach in formulating our staking plan, although there are a number of players further down the list for whom a case can be made to make the top 20 at least, and possibly even sneak into the top 10 for a juicy each way payout.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Corey Conners | 3 | each way | 60/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Jon Rahm | 5 | each way | 11/1 | 11 | +1200 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 3 | each way | 33/1 | 11 | +4500 |
| Cameron Young | 2.5 | each way | 66/1 | 10 | +8000 |
| Keegan Bradley | 2 | each way | 90/1 | 8 | +8000 |
Corey Conners (3pts ew, 60/1, 8 places) leads the way for us this week, despite not quite hitting the “top 30” trend that we’re looking for (currently 32nd). Conners is proving to be a reliable proposition in majors (most recently securing us a nice placed finish at the Masters), with the superb tee-to-green game that allows him to contend on the toughest layouts on the planet. While his short game has been a barrier to clocking up wins in more routine events, this is less of an issue in majors, and the fact that he’s not a regular winner means he has been going off at bigger prices than he arguably deserves in these events. His total strokes gained numbers in the last six months stack up well against the likes of Hovland, Matusyama, Morikawa, Schauffele – all of whom are markedly shorter in the market, and despite the fact that he’s gained nothing on the greens during this period.
Second up, we’ll nail our colours to one from the front of the market with a perfect game for this challenge in Jon Rahm (5pts ew, 11/1, 11 places). The Spaniard has had a somewhat disappointing season so far, with just the one win in a weak field recently to show for his efforts. But through this period his long game has remained imperious and it’s easy to see him topping the SG off the tee and SG approach stats this week. Putting has been an issue, but as with Conners it’s likely to be less of a hindrance than usual this week and that recent win might just give him the confidence boost he needs to start trusting his putter again. It’s hard to forget the way he closed out the US Open in such gutsy fashion and if he’s in the mix down the stretch on Sunday there’s no-one in the field I’d rather have on side. I feel he represents much better value at 12/1 in a big event like this than he does at shorter odds in the more mundane target golf shootouts.
Joaquin Niemann (3pts ew, 33/1, 11 places) comfortably hits the top 30 trend, is ranked 6th in the field in SG tee-to-green in the last six months and played very well indeed for the first three rounds of the Byron Nelson, showing he’s on good terms with his game. In short he ticks the boxes and is a straightforward inclusion in the staking plan at a price that gives neither his ability nor current form the respect it deserves.
Looking a little further down the list, another player with the right profile is Cameron Young (2.5pts ew, 66/1, 10 places). Again falling just outside the top 30, his exemplary tee-to-green qualities have seen him rack up a string of impressive finishes for a relatively recent graduate to the big time. He’s quietly gaining a good bit of respect as a quality ball striker and considering most of his results have been achieved on courses that wouldn’t play to his strengths, this could be a big opportunity for him to become more of a household name with a huge performance in a huge event. He’s been well backed in early exchanges so the price is a little less than I would have ideally hoped for, but I’m convinced there’s still value there.
Our final selection is Keegan Bradley (2pts ew, 90/1, 8 places), who is by no means my favourite golfer (to put it mildly), but the 2011 winner of this very event has gradually been rebuilding and in the last three months in particular has his all-round game in great shape, gaining at least a quarter of a stroke per round in all categories. Second in a tough test at the Wells Fargo recently, I’m not sure he’s a plausible winner, but a top 10 finish certainly wouldn’t be a huge surprise.
It was hard to leave Scottie Scheffler off the staking plan. He’s said that this is his favourite course and he’s been mopping up events recently, including of course breaking his major duck at the Masters just last month. It was a very close call between him and Rahm and I certainly wouldn’t put you off taking around 6/1 that either of them wins it. I’m not sure I’d have Rory so close in the market to Rahm and Scheffler. Everyone went nuts for his final round at Augusta, and perhaps it will have given him the confidence boost he needs to push on. I certainly wouldn’t say I’d be surprised if he won it. But let’s be honest, this was a continuation of a pattern of playing himself out of contention before a stirring late rally and his inability to regularly put four solid rounds together remains a concern and I don’t think is reflected in his price. More appealing towards the top of the market are Jordan Spieth, who is starting to look on better terms with his swing changes, and Viktor Hovland, for whom I feel this the PGA is his best major opportunity, but his form has cooled recently, so I’ve reluctantly left him out. Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay and (bar his exceptional round yesterday) Xander Schauffele don’t look to be in good enough form to me to justify their cramped prices.
At bigger prices, Matt Kuchar, Tom Hoge, Harold Varner III, Sergio Garcia were all considered and feature in our options away from the outright market. Good luck whoever you go with.
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Corey Conners | Top 20 | 8 | 13/5 | +260 |
| Cameron Young | Top 20 | 5 | 3/1 | +300 |
| Keegan Bradley | Top 20 | 4 | 7/2 | +333 |
| Matt Kuchar | Top 20 | 4 | 5/1 | +490 |
| Tom Hoge | Top 20 | 4 | 11/2 | +500 |
| Harold Varner II | Top 20 | 3 | 4/1 | +380 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | Top South African (ew) | 3 | 6/1 | +550 |
We’ll focus our attentions here on the top 20 market, plus one curve ball from the top South African list, where Louis Oosthuizen looks to be a vulnerable favourite, and those coming over from the DP World Tour are likely to find Southern Hills to be a very different test.
It’s hard not to feel a little disappointed despite another profitable major for followers of Form Golfer. Having been somewhat scuppered by the draw on the first two days, with many of our selections having been handed the unfavoured late/early side, a strong late run from Cameron Young (fast becoming a favourite of ours) gave us genuine hopes of a mega payout.
Young found himself tied for the lead midway through Sunday and when the dust settled we were left to reflect on his clumsy double bogey at 16 (a dreadful bunker shot followed by a woeful three-putt) which on the face of it cost him the title, since he finished one shot outside the playoff. That said, who knows how he would have finished had he faced the pressure of contention on the final couple of holes; just look what happened to Mito Pereira.
Pereira’s woes on the final hole made for difficult viewing – to some extent like a slightly less extreme version of Jean Van De Velde at Carnoustie all those years back. It was a dreadful shame for the Chilean, who would have been a fully deserved winner, and hopefully he can take pride in 71 holes of wonderful golf and push on from here.
It was a compelling tournament (much more so than the Scottie procession in the final round of the Masters) and showed just how much depth of talent there is, with few fancied names towards the top of the leaderboard until the pressure started to tell on the back nine. Ultimately, Justin Thomas was a relatively predictable winner and despite having benefitted from the troubles of others around him, the fact he came through the worst of the draw on the first two days makes his win all the more commendable. Coming from 7 back on the final 9, it was notable that even when he holed a monster birdie putt on 11, his reaction suggested that he still didn’t believe he could win from there. It’s entirely possible that having finally secured his second major, he will pick them up with more regularity now.
Young secured us a profit on our outright selections, and with both him and Tom Hoge gaining top 20 finishes, we were also in credit on our other recommendations. Overall a 25% ROI on the event, although it could easily have been so much better.