Valspar Championship 2023
Overview
Dates: March 16, 2023 to March 19, 2023
Location: Florida, USA
Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7340 yards
Prize Purse: $8100000
The PGA Tour’s Florida swing wraps up at the Valspar Championship, where Sam Burns looks for his third win in a row at Innisbrook. The Valspar was one of three titles for Burns last season, along with the Sanderson Farms Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge. The 26-year old has four PGA Tour wins, with half coming at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course.
Results
Boom! A close call that very definitely went our way, as Taylor Moore held himself together up the stretch to clinch his maiden tour win, rewarding FormGolfer followers who had backed him at a tasty 60/1. It looked for much of the final round as though he might fall agonisingly a shot or two shot of the mark, but a couple of late birdies and clutch par saves on 17 and 18 saw him post a target that neither Jordan Spieth nor Adam Schenk could quite match. It was tough on Schenk in particular, who had led for almost the entire tournament and didn’t deserve to see his tee shot on 18 land up against a tree, with a left handed chop out sideways his only recovery option. He still gave us an almighty fright as his 40-foot par save attempt hit the hole, but the speed kept it out and saw Taylor get over the line.
All six of our selections performed at least respectably, with all making the cut. Kramer Kickok looked to have a live shot at the half way stage before falling back. In the end it was Nick Taylor who came closest to adding to our returns, finishing just a shot out of the places. The two Justins, Rose and Suh were a little disappointing, but it’s hard to feel too glum when we recorded over 120 points profit on the week. This moves us very close to 200 points profit and 50% return on investment for the 2022/3 season to date – if we can keep this up it’ll be hard to find any other golf tipsters out there with comparable numbers.
Preview
Back down to earth this week after the Players as a weaker field takes on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort. Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth are the two biggest names teeing it up, while Sam Burns has won this in each of the last two years and is the obvious starting point on that basis alone. But his long game hasn’t been in quite the same shape in the recent past, which perhaps tempers confidence in his prospects of a rare three-peat.
The two key stats we’re looking for are accuracy off the tee and putting. Copperhead is a tricky, tree-lined venue, with putting it in position a critical part of putting together a score. Not over-long at a shade over 7300 yards, distance is no great advantage here.
I’m leaning towards avoiding those at the top of the market this week, who will have been fully-focused on the recent elevated events and may not be quite as motivated this time around, even if on paper it represents a good opportunity to pick up a win.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Justin Rose | 4 | each way | 22/1 | 8 | +2200 |
| Justin Suh | 2.5 | each way | 30/1 | 10 | +3500 |
| Taylor Moore | 2 | each way | 60/1 | 8 | +5500 |
| Sam Ryder | 1.5 | each way | 80/1 | 8 | +8500 |
| Nick Taylor | 1.5 | each way | 66/1 | 8 | +6600 |
| Kramer Hickok | 1.5 | each way | 80/1 | 8 | +12500 |
Our first pick is Justin Rose (4pts each way, 22/1, 8 places), who has already bagged one win this season and put in another good showing at the Players, finishing nicely inside the top 10. Sitting second in the field in total strokes gained over the last six months (and top in the last three months), all aspects of his game are in good shape, he’s straighter off the tee than most of the other leading contenders and a good record at Copperhead seals the deal. A confident choice who I feel should be a good bit closer to Spieth and Thomas in the market.
Justin Suh (2.5pts each way, 30/1, 10 places) is now seemingly well on his way to fulfilling the potential he brought with him from the Korn Ferry Tour and finished alongside Rose at Swagrass. His putting stats have improved a good bit in the last three months and if this continues it’s surely only a matter of time before his first PGA Tour win is secured.
Taylor Moore (2pts each way, 60/1, 8 places) has been in great nick lately with four cuts made from his late five and two top 20s during that run. I was surprised to see 60/1 available and am happy to get involved at that price, with his driving and putting stats looking good enough to give him a decent chance of a big showing here.
Sam Ryder (1.5pts each way, 80/1, 8 places) went agonisingly close to landing a big prize in the Farmers a month or two ago and after that near miss it was to his great credit that he was able to follow up with a couple of top 20s in his next events. He sits second in this field for SG putting in the last three months, and if that form on the greens continues he could be very dangerous here. I don’t see him as being ready to close out one of the bigger events, but he could very easily go close against a field like this. His price doesn’t reflect how he’s been playing recently.
Nick Taylor (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 8 places) is very interesting at a decent price considering he sits in the top 10 in this field for total SG in the last three months, has been putting seriously well and is well up the list for driving accuracy. He ticks all the boxes we’re looking for here and the price available makes him easy to include in our staking plan.
Kramer Kickok (1.5pts each way, 80/1, 8 places) wouldn’t jump out at you as a likely winner, but he’s been quietly building a decent record at Copperhead (three cuts made in a row), is very accurate from the tee, and has been slowly improving his results over the last few months. Top 30 in the Genesis, top 15 in the Honda and top 50 in the Players isn’t too shabby a run of form and he might be just the kind of guy who could sneak into the top 10 here.
Others that came close to being included were Adam Hadwin, who surely has to be in for a big week here, but the price wasn’t quite enough to get him onto the list. Ben Griffin gave us a good run at the Players and is fairly priced again on that form, but I worry that his effort at Sawgrass may take a week or two to recover from. And Matthew NeSmith, whose recent form hasn’t been up to much, but his two previous visits to Copperhead have seen him markedly outperform expectations, so a revival this week wouldn’t surprise.
Boom! A close call that very definitely went our way, as Taylor Moore held himself together up the stretch to clinch his maiden tour win, rewarding FormGolfer followers who had backed him at a tasty 60/1. It looked for much of the final round as though he might fall agonisingly a shot or two shot of the mark, but a couple of late birdies and clutch par saves on 17 and 18 saw him post a target that neither Jordan Spieth nor Adam Schenk could quite match. It was tough on Schenk in particular, who had led for almost the entire tournament and didn’t deserve to see his tee shot on 18 land up against a tree, with a left handed chop out sideways his only recovery option. He still gave us an almighty fright as his 40-foot par save attempt hit the hole, but the speed kept it out and saw Taylor get over the line.
All six of our selections performed at least respectably, with all making the cut. Kramer Kickok looked to have a live shot at the half way stage before falling back. In the end it was Nick Taylor who came closest to adding to our returns, finishing just a shot out of the places. The two Justins, Rose and Suh were a little disappointing, but it’s hard to feel too glum when we recorded over 120 points profit on the week. This moves us very close to 200 points profit and 50% return on investment for the 2022/3 season to date – if we can keep this up it’ll be hard to find any other golf tipsters out there with comparable numbers.